5 ms·
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. The extraordinary evidence simply isn't there, there's too much fog in which some thing could have happened
by jquery 4y ago
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. The extraordinary evidence simply isn't there, there's too much fog in which some thing could have happened where the daughter assumed the identity of her mother, for whatever reason. It could've been taxes, could've been something temporary that turned into something permanent. Hell, maybe she was a bored housewife and thought that cosplaying as a grandma would be fun. I'm sure she had a grand old time as a "90 year old" that was able to act like a spritely 60 year old.
I simply don't believe she was the oldest, although I do acknowledge there is a very slim possibility of it being true.
This is a scenario where science fails us, I think. Social scientists have "proved" she was the oldest with "99% accuracy". But Bayesian statistics would pose the question, "if the odds of being the world's oldest person are 1 in 5 billion, and you took a test that was 99% accurate that confirmed you were the oldest, what are the odds of you being the oldest if the test is positive?" It turns out the odds of you being the oldest person are still astronomically unlikely... you have better odds of winning the PowerBall than of being the world's oldest person.
- neaden 4y agoThe extraordinary claim here is that a 34 year old woman would impersonate her mother for decades, including living with her father, and no one would ever notice or say anything. Your perspective is like arresting anyone who wins the lotto for fraud, because it's more likely that they would cheat then just happen to guess the right numbers.
- kevinmchugh 4y ago> including living with her father, Mother and daughter lived side by side in the same building with their husbands. After the daughter passed and the grandson married he took that apartment, so Jeanne and her son-in-law cohabitated. Whichever explanation you choose you have to say that they were a close family who really liked their apartments.
- jquery 4y agoThere's no plausible way to cheat the lotto, every sold ticket is tracked. There is a fairly plausible (and fairly ordinary) explanation for her extreme age (outstripping the next oldest by 3 years, and even with modern medicine and more people nobody is coming close to beating it).
- pcrh 4y agoYour Bayesian estimations make no sense. When the alternative is that it is the daughter who survived to 98 (which is already old) rather than the mother surviving to 122, the question should be phrased as "if you are older than 98 what is the probability that your age is 122".