If war starts because the US and Taiwan made some agreement, that would be China starting a war. They look quite trigger happy, in fact. Launching missiles in a

If war starts because the US and Taiwan made some agreement, that would be China starting a war. They look quite trigger happy, in fact. Launching missiles in a tantrum and damaging foreign aircraft through stupid antics. You're also defining "economic win" as "able to exist independently of the West" but in practice it would be returning to a Cold War like status: no winners or losers because the game isn't over yet.