6 ms·

All the discussion makes it seem like the difference would be of 20 years or something. But she died at 122. There are 63 people who lived at least 115. I woul

All the discussion makes it seem like the difference would be of 20 years or something. But she died at 122. There are 63 people who lived at least 115. I would say if it's reliable that humans can live up to 115, it's not a huge difference to my mental model on longevity if they CAN'T (yet) live to 120.

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
Look at the list of longest living women: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people#100_verified_oldest_women https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_pe... If you look at, say, the top twenty, the gap between each woman tends to be on the order of weeks to a few months. The gap between Calment and the runner up is over 3 years. Statistically, this is a giant chasm for continuous data like this.
- joshuahedlund 4y ago
  Reminds me of Usain Bolt's 100m dash records, when he would shave a tenth of a second off a record crowded with incremental millisecond differences.[0] [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres#All-time_top_25_men https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres#All-time_top_25_men
  - kevinmchugh 4y ago
    I'm reminded of the long jump record: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_long_jump_world_record_progression https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_long_jump_world_reco... There's only one in-competition jump better than Bob Beamon's in the last 55 years
    - oblio 4y ago
      Also Bubka: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_pole_vault_world_record_progression https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_pole_vault_world_recor... Started in 1984 at 5.85, ended in 1994 at 6.14, after breaking the world record 30 times, I think, took 20 more years for someone to beat his record.
      - littlestymaar 4y ago
        See also Just Fontaine's record in number of goals in a single world cup.
  - oh_sigh 4y ago
    The reality is even more amazing than the graph lets on, because Usain has never failed a drug test, whereas the 4 people directly to his left have, and the 5th person suspiciously missed enough drug tests to be temporarily banned. It's only when you get to Bromell and Kerley whose times are at the very top of the chart that you see times that come from clean runners.
- deanCommie 4y ago
  Sure, I understand, I'm just saying the story of "Calment is a fraud" and "All Supercentenarians are frauds" is just a very different story.
- dmurray 4y ago
  Of the 25 who made it to 116, 10 made it to 117. Of the 10 who made it to 117, 4 made it to 118 and 3 of those made out to 119. So the data are roughly consistent with a 40% chance of living another year at the age. That compounds to a 6% chance of living 3 more years. Two of the 119-year-olds dying within a year and one of them living 3 years is completely consistent with this model.

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago

Look at the list of longest living women: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people#100_verified_oldest_women https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_pe... If you look at, say, the top twenty, the gap between each woman tends to be on the order of weeks to a few months. The gap between Calment and the runner up is over 3 years. Statistically, this is a giant chasm for continuous data like this.

joshuahedlund 4y ago
Reminds me of Usain Bolt's 100m dash records, when he would shave a tenth of a second off a record crowded with incremental millisecond differences.[0] [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres#All-time_top_25_men https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres#All-time_top_25_men
- kevinmchugh 4y ago
  I'm reminded of the long jump record: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_long_jump_world_record_progression https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_long_jump_world_reco... There's only one in-competition jump better than Bob Beamon's in the last 55 years
  - oblio 4y ago
    Also Bubka: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_pole_vault_world_record_progression https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_pole_vault_world_recor... Started in 1984 at 5.85, ended in 1994 at 6.14, after breaking the world record 30 times, I think, took 20 more years for someone to beat his record.
    - littlestymaar 4y ago
      See also Just Fontaine's record in number of goals in a single world cup.
- oh_sigh 4y ago
  The reality is even more amazing than the graph lets on, because Usain has never failed a drug test, whereas the 4 people directly to his left have, and the 5th person suspiciously missed enough drug tests to be temporarily banned. It's only when you get to Bromell and Kerley whose times are at the very top of the chart that you see times that come from clean runners.
deanCommie 4y ago
Sure, I understand, I'm just saying the story of "Calment is a fraud" and "All Supercentenarians are frauds" is just a very different story.
dmurray 4y ago
Of the 25 who made it to 116, 10 made it to 117. Of the 10 who made it to 117, 4 made it to 118 and 3 of those made out to 119. So the data are roughly consistent with a 40% chance of living another year at the age. That compounds to a 6% chance of living 3 more years. Two of the 119-year-olds dying within a year and one of them living 3 years is completely consistent with this model.