It comes close to that, but there are some confounding factors wherever you introduce analog elements - and Golden Age arcade games were doing all kinds of wack

It comes close to that, but there are some confounding factors wherever you introduce analog elements - and Golden Age arcade games were doing all kinds of wacky analog things that necessitate high fidelity digital sampling. See "Journey" and its tape playback of rock band Journey, or "Dragons Lair" and every other laserdisc game. Classic pinballs are likewise presented digitally through a mishmash of ROM emulation and simulated physical hardware. It's definitely the case, though, that games have essentially topped out on what they need to support a high fidelity experience in terms of "just" pushing more data down the pipe. While new AAA can push a little farther still, there is broad consensus that diminishing returns are here, and...well, the future is going to be in having AI do the details and make the optimizations, and the resulting size from that is most likely going to stay linear with the number of assets, rather than having each asset metastasize further detail.