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Sure, but the NPT(T) can't explain this. I'll reiterate my earlier two claims slightly more succinctly: a) we should see a strong correlation between nation

by Jedd 4y ago

Sure, but the NPT(T) can't explain this. I'll reiterate my earlier two claims slightly more succinctly: a) we should see a strong correlation between nation states with laxer attitudes towards safety AND more fission nuclear power plants brought online on budget and on time. b) absent regulation changes through the life of any given project, we should expect to see any given plant brought online on budget and on time. I don't believe we have a wealth of examples of the latter, and for the former the semi-obvious candidate would be China, however: " ... China’s government has become more cautious about nuclear power [...]. The target in the 13th five year plan was only 58 gigawatts by 2020, and, as of April 2022, China is yet to reach that capacity target. Judging by what is under construction, China will miss the target of 70 gigawatts by 2025 as well. "Many Chinese nuclear plants have been delayed and construction costs have exceeded initial estimates." Citing: https://www.colorado.edu/cas/2022/04/12/even-china-cannot-rescue-nuclear-power-its-woes https://www.colorado.edu/cas/2022/04/12/even-china-cannot-re...

dirtyid 4y ago
>"Many Chinese nuclear plants have been delayed and construction costs have exceeded initial estimates." Important to note reasons for targets being unmet, apart from safety reevaluation delays due to Fukushima Daiichi (PRC laxer but not that lax on nuclear safety), delays and over cost can be attributed to foreign nuclear tech - french EPR underperforming, US AP1000s trouble with Westinghouse and sanctions against China General Nuclear as part of tech war. Recent indigenous CPR1000 plants post above drama have rolled out according to expectations. A lot can be explained by nuclear simply being hard, and domestic regulation around nuclear power in western countries capable of infra exports led to them consistently underdeliver. NPT and moat around nuclear tech also prevents many countries from indigenous nuclear power development. Few countries have the resources and expertise regardless of NPT to pursue indigenous nuclear power programs at all, but so far PRC plants with indigenous tech is performing alright. Other consideration is simpler and scalable renewable tech costs coming way down. Renewables are over performing while nuclear now performing at about expectations.

by Jedd 4y ago

dirtyid 4y ago

>"Many Chinese nuclear plants have been delayed and construction costs have exceeded initial estimates." Important to note reasons for targets being unmet, apart from safety reevaluation delays due to Fukushima Daiichi (PRC laxer but not that lax on nuclear safety), delays and over cost can be attributed to foreign nuclear tech - french EPR underperforming, US AP1000s trouble with Westinghouse and sanctions against China General Nuclear as part of tech war. Recent indigenous CPR1000 plants post above drama have rolled out according to expectations. A lot can be explained by nuclear simply being hard, and domestic regulation around nuclear power in western countries capable of infra exports led to them consistently underdeliver. NPT and moat around nuclear tech also prevents many countries from indigenous nuclear power development. Few countries have the resources and expertise regardless of NPT to pursue indigenous nuclear power programs at all, but so far PRC plants with indigenous tech is performing alright. Other consideration is simpler and scalable renewable tech costs coming way down. Renewables are over performing while nuclear now performing at about expectations.