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Nuclear fission power apologists frequently make a claim like this when trying to establish why costs are so high (it doesn't necessarily explain why cost overr

by Jedd 4y ago

Nuclear fission power apologists frequently make a claim like this when trying to establish why costs are so high (it doesn't necessarily explain why cost overruns are so high, as presumably the regulation set is known at the time of project initiation). If this were the / a major factor in cost competitiveness, we'd expect to see much higher uptake of nuclear fission power plants in places where, as you might say, those things are disregarded (to varying degrees). I don't believe that's the case, but can't find convincing data one way or the other. I wonder if there are examples of massive cost overrun / delayed commissioning nuclear fission plants - say Hinkley in the UK - that could be pointed at to substantiate the 'process and regulatory approval' costs, where those process and regulations changed after the initial cost calculations.

stcredzero 4y ago
> If this were the / a major factor in cost competitiveness, we'd expect to see much higher uptake of nuclear fission power plants in places where, as you might say, those things are disregarded (to varying degrees). Aircraft carriers and submarines.
- gumby 4y ago
  I STM reading (via HN!) that submarine nuke plants are designed not to require (or even have the affordances for) significant maintenance — that when they are “done” (fuel spent?) the power plant is discarded. If this is in fact the case I can imagine it would make for a more reliable and less expensive device. The economics of nuclear powered subs is quite different from a commercial product. But it’s interesting to consider. (And just for fun: imagine what effect a “right to repair” law would have…)
  - Jedd 4y ago
    Good points. In addition, military spend capabilities will more readily compensate for the other two sides of the project management triangle. And AIUI a lot of those systems, once initial development occurred, were cookie-cutter / evolutionary designs. I also understand the mini-reactors for seafaring vessels are much less efficient - but they don't need to be hugely efficient, primarily for the reason you mention. In any case, I expect the regulatory-driven quality of those devices is ridiculously high. Well the USA systems at least -- obviously Russia had a much less pleasant experience with small reactors on submarines.
    - throwaway2037 4y ago
      Yes, the cost per MWh must be insane. Any nation building nuclear-powered subs and carriers have essentially unlimited R&D and construction budgets.
- cagenut 4y ago
  that only further proves the point, those cases may have more lax safety thresholds but they still wind up wildly over budget all the time.
KptMarchewa 4y ago
>If this were the / a major factor in cost competitiveness, we'd expect to see much higher uptake of nuclear fission power plants in places where, as you might say, those things are disregarded (to varying degrees). Historically NPT treaty prevented a lot of those countries from pursuing peaceful nuclear energy.
- Jedd 4y ago
  Sure, but the NPT(T) can't explain this. I'll reiterate my earlier two claims slightly more succinctly: a) we should see a strong correlation between nation states with laxer attitudes towards safety AND more fission nuclear power plants brought online on budget and on time. b) absent regulation changes through the life of any given project, we should expect to see any given plant brought online on budget and on time. I don't believe we have a wealth of examples of the latter, and for the former the semi-obvious candidate would be China, however: " ... China’s government has become more cautious about nuclear power [...]. The target in the 13th five year plan was only 58 gigawatts by 2020, and, as of April 2022, China is yet to reach that capacity target. Judging by what is under construction, China will miss the target of 70 gigawatts by 2025 as well. "Many Chinese nuclear plants have been delayed and construction costs have exceeded initial estimates." Citing: https://www.colorado.edu/cas/2022/04/12/even-china-cannot-rescue-nuclear-power-its-woes https://www.colorado.edu/cas/2022/04/12/even-china-cannot-re...
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    >"Many Chinese nuclear plants have been delayed and construction costs have exceeded initial estimates." Important to note reasons for targets being unmet, apart from safety reevaluation delays due to Fukushima Daiichi (PRC laxer but not that lax on nuclear safety), delays and over cost can be attributed to foreign nuclear tech - french EPR underperforming, US AP1000s trouble with Westinghouse and sanctions against China General Nuclear as part of tech war. Recent indigenous CPR1000 plants post above drama have rolled out according to expectations. A lot can be explained by nuclear simply being hard, and domestic regulation around nuclear power in western countries capable of infra exports led to them consistently underdeliver. NPT and moat around nuclear tech also prevents many countries from indigenous nuclear power development. Few countries have the resources and expertise regardless of NPT to pursue indigenous nuclear power programs at all, but so far PRC plants with indigenous tech is performing alright. Other consideration is simpler and scalable renewable tech costs coming way down. Renewables are over performing while nuclear now performing at about expectations.
throwaway2037 4y ago
About delays and cost overruns, I highly recommend that people read about the Olkiluoto Nuclear Power Plant in Finland. The delays and cost overruns are totally insane, yet they claim (on Wiki): Even taking into account all OL3 construction delays the long term LCOE target for all three plants is 30 EUR/MWh. LCOE for the OL3 reactor alone is estimated at 42 EUR/MWh. My "envelope maths" tells me that generating electricity from OL3 is twice the cost of OL1+OL2: 18 EUR/MWh vs 42 EUR/MWh. The main Wiki article includes a long list of reasons for delays and cost overruns. The construction project also included very long term, underground storage. On YouTube, you can find a great, if slightly creepy, documentary about it called "Into Eternity".
- Gwypaas 4y ago
  The French tax payers have through EDF taken a loss of €5-10B on Olkiluoto 3. Definitely cheap, if you make someone else pay.
  - pyrale 4y ago
    EDF was not involved in building Olkiluoto.
    - Gwypaas 4y ago
      EDF bought the bankrupt carcass of Areva to preserve the French nuclear industry. The construction is kept in a separate company, but the French bore the losses.
      - pyrale 4y ago
        > but the French bore the losses. I know, my point is that EDF is not related to that. > EDF bought the bankrupt carcass of Areva to preserve the French nuclear industry. Some parts were sent in other entities, like Framatome.
        Schroedingersat 4y ago
cpleppert 4y ago
That argument doesn't make sense. Nuclear power plants are capital intensive; countries that would have a higher tolerance for safety and environmental shortfalls would find nuclear power too capital intensive to be financially viable.
- Jedd 4y ago
  All? And all equally? That's where the original argument fails to compel. There's ~ 50 countries with nuclear reactors, and about 30 with nuclear power plants. (Australia's an example of having one reactor, for research, but not wanting any for power production.) Anyway, it's unlikely those 32 countries that have nuclear fission power plant, which presumably is a subset of countries that could build them today, all have near-identical regulatory / process requirements that in turn are the reason they're uneconomical to build there.
pyrale 4y ago
> it doesn't necessarily explain why cost overruns are so high Few projects means little standardization and shaky forecasts.

by Jedd 4y ago

stcredzero 4y ago

> If this were the / a major factor in cost competitiveness, we'd expect to see much higher uptake of nuclear fission power plants in places where, as you might say, those things are disregarded (to varying degrees). Aircraft carriers and submarines.

gumby 4y ago
I STM reading (via HN!) that submarine nuke plants are designed not to require (or even have the affordances for) significant maintenance — that when they are “done” (fuel spent?) the power plant is discarded. If this is in fact the case I can imagine it would make for a more reliable and less expensive device. The economics of nuclear powered subs is quite different from a commercial product. But it’s interesting to consider. (And just for fun: imagine what effect a “right to repair” law would have…)
- Jedd 4y ago
  Good points. In addition, military spend capabilities will more readily compensate for the other two sides of the project management triangle. And AIUI a lot of those systems, once initial development occurred, were cookie-cutter / evolutionary designs. I also understand the mini-reactors for seafaring vessels are much less efficient - but they don't need to be hugely efficient, primarily for the reason you mention. In any case, I expect the regulatory-driven quality of those devices is ridiculously high. Well the USA systems at least -- obviously Russia had a much less pleasant experience with small reactors on submarines.
  - throwaway2037 4y ago
    Yes, the cost per MWh must be insane. Any nation building nuclear-powered subs and carriers have essentially unlimited R&D and construction budgets.
cagenut 4y ago
that only further proves the point, those cases may have more lax safety thresholds but they still wind up wildly over budget all the time.

KptMarchewa 4y ago

>If this were the / a major factor in cost competitiveness, we'd expect to see much higher uptake of nuclear fission power plants in places where, as you might say, those things are disregarded (to varying degrees). Historically NPT treaty prevented a lot of those countries from pursuing peaceful nuclear energy.

Jedd 4y ago
Sure, but the NPT(T) can't explain this. I'll reiterate my earlier two claims slightly more succinctly: a) we should see a strong correlation between nation states with laxer attitudes towards safety AND more fission nuclear power plants brought online on budget and on time. b) absent regulation changes through the life of any given project, we should expect to see any given plant brought online on budget and on time. I don't believe we have a wealth of examples of the latter, and for the former the semi-obvious candidate would be China, however: " ... China’s government has become more cautious about nuclear power [...]. The target in the 13th five year plan was only 58 gigawatts by 2020, and, as of April 2022, China is yet to reach that capacity target. Judging by what is under construction, China will miss the target of 70 gigawatts by 2025 as well. "Many Chinese nuclear plants have been delayed and construction costs have exceeded initial estimates." Citing: https://www.colorado.edu/cas/2022/04/12/even-china-cannot-rescue-nuclear-power-its-woes https://www.colorado.edu/cas/2022/04/12/even-china-cannot-re...
- dirtyid 4y ago
  >"Many Chinese nuclear plants have been delayed and construction costs have exceeded initial estimates." Important to note reasons for targets being unmet, apart from safety reevaluation delays due to Fukushima Daiichi (PRC laxer but not that lax on nuclear safety), delays and over cost can be attributed to foreign nuclear tech - french EPR underperforming, US AP1000s trouble with Westinghouse and sanctions against China General Nuclear as part of tech war. Recent indigenous CPR1000 plants post above drama have rolled out according to expectations. A lot can be explained by nuclear simply being hard, and domestic regulation around nuclear power in western countries capable of infra exports led to them consistently underdeliver. NPT and moat around nuclear tech also prevents many countries from indigenous nuclear power development. Few countries have the resources and expertise regardless of NPT to pursue indigenous nuclear power programs at all, but so far PRC plants with indigenous tech is performing alright. Other consideration is simpler and scalable renewable tech costs coming way down. Renewables are over performing while nuclear now performing at about expectations.

throwaway2037 4y ago

About delays and cost overruns, I highly recommend that people read about the Olkiluoto Nuclear Power Plant in Finland. The delays and cost overruns are totally insane, yet they claim (on Wiki): Even taking into account all OL3 construction delays the long term LCOE target for all three plants is 30 EUR/MWh. LCOE for the OL3 reactor alone is estimated at 42 EUR/MWh. My "envelope maths" tells me that generating electricity from OL3 is twice the cost of OL1+OL2: 18 EUR/MWh vs 42 EUR/MWh. The main Wiki article includes a long list of reasons for delays and cost overruns. The construction project also included very long term, underground storage. On YouTube, you can find a great, if slightly creepy, documentary about it called "Into Eternity".

Gwypaas 4y ago
The French tax payers have through EDF taken a loss of €5-10B on Olkiluoto 3. Definitely cheap, if you make someone else pay.
- pyrale 4y ago
  EDF was not involved in building Olkiluoto.
  - Gwypaas 4y ago
    EDF bought the bankrupt carcass of Areva to preserve the French nuclear industry. The construction is kept in a separate company, but the French bore the losses.
    - pyrale 4y ago
      > but the French bore the losses. I know, my point is that EDF is not related to that. > EDF bought the bankrupt carcass of Areva to preserve the French nuclear industry. Some parts were sent in other entities, like Framatome.
      - Schroedingersat 4y ago

cpleppert 4y ago

That argument doesn't make sense. Nuclear power plants are capital intensive; countries that would have a higher tolerance for safety and environmental shortfalls would find nuclear power too capital intensive to be financially viable.

Jedd 4y ago
All? And all equally? That's where the original argument fails to compel. There's ~ 50 countries with nuclear reactors, and about 30 with nuclear power plants. (Australia's an example of having one reactor, for research, but not wanting any for power production.) Anyway, it's unlikely those 32 countries that have nuclear fission power plant, which presumably is a subset of countries that could build them today, all have near-identical regulatory / process requirements that in turn are the reason they're uneconomical to build there.

pyrale 4y ago

> it doesn't necessarily explain why cost overruns are so high Few projects means little standardization and shaky forecasts.