4 ms·

Sorry, I was asking you to connect the dots because I didn't understand your comment.

by yosito 4y ago

defrost 4y ago
Fair enough. I've been in the intelligence game (gathering data) long enough that I habitually defer connecting dots as long as possible. What is known is that Japan is facing a future energy shortage, they're addressing (some?) of that with new nuclear reactors (which take time), that Australia is making noise about keeping more of its gas reserves to itself or off the board altogether (fossil fuel aversion), and that energy decisions take timeframes of five to ten years to swing about. Now we have Japan sourcing Russian oil. Is this a long tem thing (unknown to me), is this a strategic move signaling that if Japan cannot get cheap enough short term energy from elsewhere then it'll go to Russia (probably). I know nothing for certain, I'm interested in comment or input from others, and I threw out the little nuggets above as they add to the understanding of the bigger picture in which this is taking place.
- plugger 4y ago
  > Australia is making noise about keeping more of its gas reserves to itself or off the board altogether (fossil fuel aversion), and that energy decisions take timeframes of five to ten years to swing about. I don't think this is about not wanting to sell abroad for climatic reasons, I think it's solely down to the east coast of Australia having to buy gas at spot pricing because their entire production is sold into the gas market instead of having a percentage reserved for domestic use at lower rates, like we do out here in WA.
  - defrost 4y ago
    That's a good distinction to make, like yourself I'm from WA and as native Aussies we're a bit more across the details than most of HN. For the East coast it's all about having a cap on gas prices and a local set aside. For outside capital companies like the Japanese gas investors, from their PoV, it's about uncertainity and reduced profits. They want to buy in at fixed capital costs and in return have a product they can take home (home ground security) and ship about to maximise profits (especially during a war fueled energy hungry period). With our selfish demands of local resources for local markets at local shop prices coupled with political rumblings that come wih a change of Federal party that (however feasibly) foreshadow a possible greener Australia (hmmm, right?) ... well. That's enough to have others in the energy pool hedge their bets a little and seek diversity in sourcing, it takes a long time to get new sources and it's no fun running low on energy.

Sorry, I was asking you to connect the dots because I didn't understand your comment.

by yosito 4y ago

Sorry, I was asking you to connect the dots because I didn't understand your comment.

Fair enough. I've been in the intelligence game (gathering data) long enough that I habitually defer connecting dots as long as possible. What is known is that Japan is facing a future energy shortage, they're addressing (some?) of that with new nuclear reactors (which take time), that Australia is making noise about keeping more of its gas reserves to itself or off the board altogether (fossil fuel aversion), and that energy decisions take timeframes of five to ten years to swing about. Now we have Japan sourcing Russian oil. Is this a long tem thing (unknown to me), is this a strategic move signaling that if Japan cannot get cheap enough short term energy from elsewhere then it'll go to Russia (probably). I know nothing for certain, I'm interested in comment or input from others, and I threw out the little nuggets above as they add to the understanding of the bigger picture in which this is taking place.

plugger 4y ago
> Australia is making noise about keeping more of its gas reserves to itself or off the board altogether (fossil fuel aversion), and that energy decisions take timeframes of five to ten years to swing about. I don't think this is about not wanting to sell abroad for climatic reasons, I think it's solely down to the east coast of Australia having to buy gas at spot pricing because their entire production is sold into the gas market instead of having a percentage reserved for domestic use at lower rates, like we do out here in WA.
- defrost 4y ago
  That's a good distinction to make, like yourself I'm from WA and as native Aussies we're a bit more across the details than most of HN. For the East coast it's all about having a cap on gas prices and a local set aside. For outside capital companies like the Japanese gas investors, from their PoV, it's about uncertainity and reduced profits. They want to buy in at fixed capital costs and in return have a product they can take home (home ground security) and ship about to maximise profits (especially during a war fueled energy hungry period). With our selfish demands of local resources for local markets at local shop prices coupled with political rumblings that come wih a change of Federal party that (however feasibly) foreshadow a possible greener Australia (hmmm, right?) ... well. That's enough to have others in the energy pool hedge their bets a little and seek diversity in sourcing, it takes a long time to get new sources and it's no fun running low on energy.