3 ms·

Depends what that word "data" in the title means. If it is live satellite images showing shipping movements, flight data - including private jets, public minute

Depends what that word "data" in the title means. If it is live satellite images showing shipping movements, flight data - including private jets, public minutes of millions of meetings, weather patterns and so on, it might see what we can't. We may not have that going back decades, but they could start building such a set now. It will be like you are at the horse race, a punter reads the horses form in the local paper. Versus the computer runs a tuned up linear regression on thousands of variables about past horse races, weather, tracks, horse injuries and so on going back 10 years.

paxys 4y ago
It doesn't really matter. You can feed a generative AI model all the live data in the world, but it will still only be able to interpret it in context of how such a situation played out in the past.
- quickthrower2 4y ago
  That statement is tautological. It is equivalent to "getting information from the future is impossible". What I replied to was: > It'll do great. As everyone in the industry knows, past performance is always indicative of future results. Assuming sarcasm, you are saying: "It may not do great, because past performance is not always indicative of future results." This is an adage to warn the everyday person that, say, while MSFT has produced great returns in the last 10 years, it does not guarantee it will carry on producing the same returns. Which is fine. But a sophisticated operation running machine learning on large live datasets to predict stock market movements doesn't need this adage. And in addition, it is possible for them to beat the market if they can make predications and connections that no one else is making. Understand that is not "they can't lose any bet". It is more "they will make money over all bets on average that gives a higher return than the market". Open question as to whether the generative model can do this by turning on a switch, or whether it is tuned and modified by experts to understand something about current affairs.

paxys 4y ago

It doesn't really matter. You can feed a generative AI model all the live data in the world, but it will still only be able to interpret it in context of how such a situation played out in the past.

quickthrower2 4y ago
That statement is tautological. It is equivalent to "getting information from the future is impossible". What I replied to was: > It'll do great. As everyone in the industry knows, past performance is always indicative of future results. Assuming sarcasm, you are saying: "It may not do great, because past performance is not always indicative of future results." This is an adage to warn the everyday person that, say, while MSFT has produced great returns in the last 10 years, it does not guarantee it will carry on producing the same returns. Which is fine. But a sophisticated operation running machine learning on large live datasets to predict stock market movements doesn't need this adage. And in addition, it is possible for them to beat the market if they can make predications and connections that no one else is making. Understand that is not "they can't lose any bet". It is more "they will make money over all bets on average that gives a higher return than the market". Open question as to whether the generative model can do this by turning on a switch, or whether it is tuned and modified by experts to understand something about current affairs.