4 ms·

Let's put it this way: someone is, surely, already doing this. If, a couple years from now, there is not some Warren Buffett-sized new wunderkind of the stock

Let's put it this way: someone is, surely, already doing this. If, a couple years from now, there is not some Warren Buffett-sized new wunderkind of the stock market, then you will know that ChatGPT is not able to do this. I wouldn't bet on it.

throwaway12245 4y ago
Renaissance Technologies: "Renaissance's flagship Medallion fund, which is run mostly for fund employees,[10] is famed for the best track record on Wall Street, returning more than 66 percent annualized before fees and 39 percent after fees over a 30-year span from 1988 to 2018"[0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies
- RockyMcNuts 4y ago
  coming full circle, Peter Brown and Robert Mercer of Renaissance started off doing statistical language modeling at IBM and their 1992 paper in Computational Linguistics is cited in the BloombergGPT paper.
- DesiLurker 4y ago
  that only works as long as they are small enough. IIRC thats why they are very selective about taking investments.
  - shapefrog 4y ago
    The fund has $165 billion in discretionary assets under management
  - eigenvalue 4y ago
    They haven't taken outside investments for many years because of capacity constraints with their strategy. It goes beyond that actually: they force people to take dividends of their profits, because the strategy can only handle so much capital before marginal returns plunge-- otherwise they would quickly have too much capital if they kept reinvesting their cumulative profits.
    - robocat 4y ago
      I thought the strategies varied over the years: early adopter by jumping on different bleeding edge strategies. Strategies restricted by limited fund size.
      - robocat 4y ago
        To add: “So, how does the Medallion Fund make money? It finds individual patterns in data and exploits each pattern just enough to turn a small profit. And when you add up all of those small profits, you end up making a lot of money.”

throwaway12245 4y ago

Renaissance Technologies: "Renaissance's flagship Medallion fund, which is run mostly for fund employees,[10] is famed for the best track record on Wall Street, returning more than 66 percent annualized before fees and 39 percent after fees over a 30-year span from 1988 to 2018"[0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies

RockyMcNuts 4y ago
coming full circle, Peter Brown and Robert Mercer of Renaissance started off doing statistical language modeling at IBM and their 1992 paper in Computational Linguistics is cited in the BloombergGPT paper.
DesiLurker 4y ago
that only works as long as they are small enough. IIRC thats why they are very selective about taking investments.
- shapefrog 4y ago
  The fund has $165 billion in discretionary assets under management
- eigenvalue 4y ago
  They haven't taken outside investments for many years because of capacity constraints with their strategy. It goes beyond that actually: they force people to take dividends of their profits, because the strategy can only handle so much capital before marginal returns plunge-- otherwise they would quickly have too much capital if they kept reinvesting their cumulative profits.
  - robocat 4y ago
    I thought the strategies varied over the years: early adopter by jumping on different bleeding edge strategies. Strategies restricted by limited fund size.
    - robocat 4y ago
      To add: “So, how does the Medallion Fund make money? It finds individual patterns in data and exploits each pattern just enough to turn a small profit. And when you add up all of those small profits, you end up making a lot of money.”