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Why? What should affect whether something is considered is it's likelihood of happening. If AI has a 99% chance of replacing you, then you'd rather consider the

Why? What should affect whether something is considered is it's likelihood of happening. If AI has a 99% chance of replacing you, then you'd rather consider the 1% alternative simply because there's no place for you anymore? If AI will replace you there are steps that can be taken to prevent it from replacing you. This involves things like Resistance or changing what you do into something that can't be as easily replaced.

JohnFen 4y ago
> What should affect whether something is considered is it's likelihood of happening. Right, which is why I don't spend a lot of time considering a future where "AI content may even be preferable and better than human produces content." In part because I don't think this is likely at all. But also in part because if it does happen, then there's literally no way to compete with that. My career will be over, and it's unclear that there would be any other careers to switch to. > If AI will replace you there are steps that can be taken to prevent it from replacing you I'm having a very hard time seeing what could be done (in the possible future we're talking about). > changing what you do into something that can't be as easily replaced. But the possible future we're discussing is one where there isn't anything that I can't be easily replaced at. All that would be left is menial labor.
- Herval_freire 4y ago
  >I'm having a very hard time seeing what could be done (in the possible future we're talking about). Easy. While industrial automation has largely eliminated repetitive mechanical tasks robotics has not yet advanced to the point where it can replicate the versatility of the human form. The gap is partly closing with 3D printing but this is not moving nearly as fast as AI. Additionally there's just multitudes of construction jobs, maintenance jobs, physical jobs that can't be replaced. I wouldn't go so far as to call jobs involving physical movement "menial". Think of the machinist and the carpenter. This is one path. The other path is regulation or resistance. Ban AI usage like how the government bans your right to copy things you own (aka money).
  - JohnFen 4y ago
    > Additionally there's just multitudes of construction jobs, maintenance jobs, physical jobs that can't be replaced. Yes, I should have been more specific: I can't think of a way I could adapt to such a world in a way that wouldn't be utterly soul-crushing. If those sorts of jobs were appealing to me, I would still be doing them. In any case, this is why I don't spend a lot of time thinking about this eventuality. I think it's an unlikely one, and it's a possible future that looks incredibly dystopian to me. Since it's an unlikely future that I consider incredibly dystopian and have no idea how I could possible adapt to it, the most logical thing to do is to not waste a lot of time thinking about it. If/when the future comes, perhaps there will be options that are unclear to me now, or perhaps I'm just doomed. Either way, that's a bridge better crossed when I get to it. There's far too much uncertainty right now to engage in anything like planning.
    - Herval_freire 4y ago
      > There's far too much uncertainty right now to engage in anything like planning. I agree there's a huge amount of uncertainty. But I think there still must be some sort of plan B. Maybe a sort of nest egg of sorts of what to do in case it all goes to shit.
      - JohnFen 4y ago
        Well, yes.. an emergency fund (the bigger the better, but I compromise on keeping at least 1 year's pay) and disaster planning are extremely important regardless of whether or not advanced AI exists. A plan B that targets the consequences of an advanced AI specifically is more problematic because, if the people who are all excited here see their fantasies come true, then not only are we all screwed, but the hardship will be permanent. I haven't yet worked out how to develop a contingency for that. And look at all the comments on this very article replying to people who are positing contingency plans: it's almost all ridicule and telling them that their efforts are pointless. So, apparently, lots of people are upset at the very notion that people are considering contingency plans.
        4y ago

JohnFen 4y ago

> What should affect whether something is considered is it's likelihood of happening. Right, which is why I don't spend a lot of time considering a future where "AI content may even be preferable and better than human produces content." In part because I don't think this is likely at all. But also in part because if it does happen, then there's literally no way to compete with that. My career will be over, and it's unclear that there would be any other careers to switch to. > If AI will replace you there are steps that can be taken to prevent it from replacing you I'm having a very hard time seeing what could be done (in the possible future we're talking about). > changing what you do into something that can't be as easily replaced. But the possible future we're discussing is one where there isn't anything that I can't be easily replaced at. All that would be left is menial labor.

Herval_freire 4y ago
>I'm having a very hard time seeing what could be done (in the possible future we're talking about). Easy. While industrial automation has largely eliminated repetitive mechanical tasks robotics has not yet advanced to the point where it can replicate the versatility of the human form. The gap is partly closing with 3D printing but this is not moving nearly as fast as AI. Additionally there's just multitudes of construction jobs, maintenance jobs, physical jobs that can't be replaced. I wouldn't go so far as to call jobs involving physical movement "menial". Think of the machinist and the carpenter. This is one path. The other path is regulation or resistance. Ban AI usage like how the government bans your right to copy things you own (aka money).
- JohnFen 4y ago
  > Additionally there's just multitudes of construction jobs, maintenance jobs, physical jobs that can't be replaced. Yes, I should have been more specific: I can't think of a way I could adapt to such a world in a way that wouldn't be utterly soul-crushing. If those sorts of jobs were appealing to me, I would still be doing them. In any case, this is why I don't spend a lot of time thinking about this eventuality. I think it's an unlikely one, and it's a possible future that looks incredibly dystopian to me. Since it's an unlikely future that I consider incredibly dystopian and have no idea how I could possible adapt to it, the most logical thing to do is to not waste a lot of time thinking about it. If/when the future comes, perhaps there will be options that are unclear to me now, or perhaps I'm just doomed. Either way, that's a bridge better crossed when I get to it. There's far too much uncertainty right now to engage in anything like planning.
  - Herval_freire 4y ago
    > There's far too much uncertainty right now to engage in anything like planning. I agree there's a huge amount of uncertainty. But I think there still must be some sort of plan B. Maybe a sort of nest egg of sorts of what to do in case it all goes to shit.
    - JohnFen 4y ago
      Well, yes.. an emergency fund (the bigger the better, but I compromise on keeping at least 1 year's pay) and disaster planning are extremely important regardless of whether or not advanced AI exists. A plan B that targets the consequences of an advanced AI specifically is more problematic because, if the people who are all excited here see their fantasies come true, then not only are we all screwed, but the hardship will be permanent. I haven't yet worked out how to develop a contingency for that. And look at all the comments on this very article replying to people who are positing contingency plans: it's almost all ridicule and telling them that their efforts are pointless. So, apparently, lots of people are upset at the very notion that people are considering contingency plans.
      - 4y ago