5 ms·

One doesn't need to be clueless in order to lose a power struggle. He might have been betrayed, he might have overestimated the resources he could fully count o

by toyg 4y ago

One doesn't need to be clueless in order to lose a power struggle. He might have been betrayed, he might have overestimated the resources he could fully count on, he might have simply been backing a faction in the party that ended up losing. Xi Jinping went as far as kicking out of the public congress a previous president, which was unprecedented; who knows what else he's capable of.

re-thc 4y ago
Correct, he is/was backed by a different faction. Most startups of that era are.
- esafak 4y ago
  Which faction? I am curious.
  - rvnx 4y ago
    The capitalists ? Seems like the arch-enemy of communists
    - not2b 4y ago
      You would think, but in China it doesn't seem that way.
    - re-thc 4y ago
      There are no capitalists in China. Trace the origins and $$$ all come from some source belonging to a particular faction.
  - SkyMarshal 4y ago
    From what I’ve both read and experienced on a brief trip to Shanghai, it seems there are two main factions - the Beijing faction and Shanghai faction. The latter is more capitalist and chill, the former more authoritarian. It’s probably more complicated though, with multiple sub factions around different leaders in the CCP. Maybe someone with deeper knowledge can elaborate.
    - rfoo 4y ago
      There's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuanpai https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuanpai and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_clique https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_clique. And of course a third one - Xi organized his own clan.
    - viewtransform 4y ago
      This writeup by a former CCP member now living in exile explains the current functioning of the CCP. The Weakness of Xi Jinping: How Hubris and Paranoia Threaten China’s Future https://archive.is/d9OsU https://archive.is/d9OsU
      - SkyMarshal 4y ago
        That was excellent, thanks for sharing.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
SkyMarshal 4y ago
But that’s the problem - the risk of losing a power struggle in a democracy with rule of law, separation of powers, an independent court system, and regular elections is vastly different from the risks of losing a power struggle in the CCP, which controls all branches of government, law enforcement, and the military and is accountable to no one. The former has a limited downside, the latter unlimited. Whatever the Central Committee decides happens to you is law with no recourse - execution, disappearing and re-education, etc. - and law enforcement and the courts are just there to justify it after the fact. It’s clueless to publicly mouth off about the CCP if you’re a high-profile influential Chinese billionaire and therefore a potential threat to the current ruling faction, or some future ruling faction when there’s turnover. Discretion is definitely the better part of valor there.
- ethbr0 4y ago
  I always figured that's why high-level power struggles were so constant and severely fought in totalitarian regimes. If the downside is unlimited then you do whatever it takes to win, always. And if there isn't currently a struggle then you prepare for the next one, constantly. Or in other words, you only spend a small portion of your total ability and time on the job, because you have to constantly expend effort on protecting your back.
  - SkyMarshal 4y ago
    I have that impression too. Without having directly experienced it myself, it seems like a hellish system. Though it does at least seem like getting “purged” isn’t always final, and that execution is the last choice. Xi Jinping himself got purged in his youth and spent that time living and working in the countryside and building his ‘man of the common people’ cred, then made it back into the CCP’s favor later. Though Xi was a princeling, his father was one of Mao’s inner circle, so he might have been untouchable and only at risk of exile and not actual execution for that reason, unlike most other CCP members and Chinese people. And to be fair, US politicians spend most of their time fundraising for their next campaign, so in terms of total ability and time spent on the job it’s probably similar in both systems. But losing a power struggle in the US just means losing your election, and trying again in the next one. In the CCP there’s a wider range of consequences.
littlestymaar 4y ago
> One doesn't need to be clueless in order to lose a power struggle. But one has to be clueless in order to start a power struggle with Xi. He's not like the old school CCP head at all (not even Mao), he's much more of an all-powerful tyrant like Stalin was. Starting a power struggle against such a ruthless despot is clueless.
- alexandre_m 4y ago
  Are you suggesting that Xi is more of a tyrant than Mao?
  - jessaustin 4y ago
    Don't expect rational history on HN. We regularly see e.g. comparisons of Putin to Hitler.
  - littlestymaar 4y ago
    In the “single person handling all power” sense, I'd say so at least for most of Mao's reign. Political struggles where commonplace during most of the Mao era, and it wasn't until the end of his reign (in 1969, amidst the cultural revolution) that Mao came to gain complete power over the central committee. (And by that time, he had done most of its harm already) Two of the most historically important event of the period even happened after Mao lost a power struggle and was trying to get back on his foot: the great march and the cultural revolution.

by toyg 4y ago

re-thc 4y ago

Correct, he is/was backed by a different faction. Most startups of that era are.

esafak 4y ago
Which faction? I am curious.
- rvnx 4y ago
  The capitalists ? Seems like the arch-enemy of communists
  - not2b 4y ago
    You would think, but in China it doesn't seem that way.
  - re-thc 4y ago
    There are no capitalists in China. Trace the origins and $$$ all come from some source belonging to a particular faction.
- SkyMarshal 4y ago
  From what I’ve both read and experienced on a brief trip to Shanghai, it seems there are two main factions - the Beijing faction and Shanghai faction. The latter is more capitalist and chill, the former more authoritarian. It’s probably more complicated though, with multiple sub factions around different leaders in the CCP. Maybe someone with deeper knowledge can elaborate.
  - rfoo 4y ago
    There's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuanpai https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuanpai and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_clique https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_clique. And of course a third one - Xi organized his own clan.
  - viewtransform 4y ago
    This writeup by a former CCP member now living in exile explains the current functioning of the CCP. The Weakness of Xi Jinping: How Hubris and Paranoia Threaten China’s Future https://archive.is/d9OsU https://archive.is/d9OsU
    - SkyMarshal 4y ago
      That was excellent, thanks for sharing.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

SkyMarshal 4y ago

But that’s the problem - the risk of losing a power struggle in a democracy with rule of law, separation of powers, an independent court system, and regular elections is vastly different from the risks of losing a power struggle in the CCP, which controls all branches of government, law enforcement, and the military and is accountable to no one. The former has a limited downside, the latter unlimited. Whatever the Central Committee decides happens to you is law with no recourse - execution, disappearing and re-education, etc. - and law enforcement and the courts are just there to justify it after the fact. It’s clueless to publicly mouth off about the CCP if you’re a high-profile influential Chinese billionaire and therefore a potential threat to the current ruling faction, or some future ruling faction when there’s turnover. Discretion is definitely the better part of valor there.

ethbr0 4y ago
I always figured that's why high-level power struggles were so constant and severely fought in totalitarian regimes. If the downside is unlimited then you do whatever it takes to win, always. And if there isn't currently a struggle then you prepare for the next one, constantly. Or in other words, you only spend a small portion of your total ability and time on the job, because you have to constantly expend effort on protecting your back.
- SkyMarshal 4y ago
  I have that impression too. Without having directly experienced it myself, it seems like a hellish system. Though it does at least seem like getting “purged” isn’t always final, and that execution is the last choice. Xi Jinping himself got purged in his youth and spent that time living and working in the countryside and building his ‘man of the common people’ cred, then made it back into the CCP’s favor later. Though Xi was a princeling, his father was one of Mao’s inner circle, so he might have been untouchable and only at risk of exile and not actual execution for that reason, unlike most other CCP members and Chinese people. And to be fair, US politicians spend most of their time fundraising for their next campaign, so in terms of total ability and time spent on the job it’s probably similar in both systems. But losing a power struggle in the US just means losing your election, and trying again in the next one. In the CCP there’s a wider range of consequences.

littlestymaar 4y ago

> One doesn't need to be clueless in order to lose a power struggle. But one has to be clueless in order to start a power struggle with Xi. He's not like the old school CCP head at all (not even Mao), he's much more of an all-powerful tyrant like Stalin was. Starting a power struggle against such a ruthless despot is clueless.

alexandre_m 4y ago
Are you suggesting that Xi is more of a tyrant than Mao?
- jessaustin 4y ago
  Don't expect rational history on HN. We regularly see e.g. comparisons of Putin to Hitler.
- littlestymaar 4y ago
  In the “single person handling all power” sense, I'd say so at least for most of Mao's reign. Political struggles where commonplace during most of the Mao era, and it wasn't until the end of his reign (in 1969, amidst the cultural revolution) that Mao came to gain complete power over the central committee. (And by that time, he had done most of its harm already) Two of the most historically important event of the period even happened after Mao lost a power struggle and was trying to get back on his foot: the great march and the cultural revolution.