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As long as China and Russia remain peaceful and don’t threaten their neighbors with aggression, they can absolutely win the war for hearts and minds and thus as

As long as China and Russia remain peaceful and don’t threaten their neighbors with aggression, they can absolutely win the war for hearts and minds and thus assemble a broad coalition to buck the US’s interests. The problem here is that Russia has already invaded its neighbors and proven to be a security risk for Europe, while China is doing everything it can to signal to its own population that war with Taiwan is imminent and to its neighbors that it’s a major threat. Maybe they’re all joking (well, except for Russia) but the very real security threat posed by China and Russia to their neighbors puts an upper “cap” on the effectiveness of a broad anti-US alliance. The backstop of US dominance isn’t feelings, it’s the global desire for survival.

tpoacher 4y ago
So what you're saying is that it is not in their enemies' best interests to allow them to remain peaceful. > China is doing everything it can to signal to its own population that war with Taiwan is imminent I haven't seen this at all, though it may well be true. What I have seen, however, is a sudden regularity in articles over the last few months on how China is a threat to Taiwan, how everyone including somehow China really seems to admit it's very much not a part of China, and how its allies need to be prepared and proactive about "defending" it from China. Not saying Chucky isn't a bully, but I can't shake the feeling that going round telling people how you're rounding up the gang and are preparing to give him and his chums a lesson, isn't exactly the peace-maintaining de-escalation people think it is. Especially in the absence of an "if he tries something" clause.
- matthewdgreen 4y ago
  Not really sure what to make of this comment. You start by admitting you're not really sure if China has been threatening Taiwan, but then conclude that the US is probably at fault for it anyway. Also not sure what "rounding up the gang and preparing to give China a lesson" means here.
Ekaros 4y ago
On other hand. Not getting involved in others' conflicts might go well down in Africa for example.
- matthewdgreen 4y ago
  Russia is heavily involved in Syria, so I don't see any principled reason to believe that "not getting involved in others' conflicts" is a red line for that alliance.
lcvw 4y ago
Agreed. Russia and China have alienated every one of their neighbors by invading them, trying to take them over economically, and other bs. The US is the global hegemon mainly because of fear of Russia/China, which is not going to go away short of regime change imo.

tpoacher 4y ago

So what you're saying is that it is not in their enemies' best interests to allow them to remain peaceful. > China is doing everything it can to signal to its own population that war with Taiwan is imminent I haven't seen this at all, though it may well be true. What I have seen, however, is a sudden regularity in articles over the last few months on how China is a threat to Taiwan, how everyone including somehow China really seems to admit it's very much not a part of China, and how its allies need to be prepared and proactive about "defending" it from China. Not saying Chucky isn't a bully, but I can't shake the feeling that going round telling people how you're rounding up the gang and are preparing to give him and his chums a lesson, isn't exactly the peace-maintaining de-escalation people think it is. Especially in the absence of an "if he tries something" clause.

matthewdgreen 4y ago
Not really sure what to make of this comment. You start by admitting you're not really sure if China has been threatening Taiwan, but then conclude that the US is probably at fault for it anyway. Also not sure what "rounding up the gang and preparing to give China a lesson" means here.

Ekaros 4y ago

On other hand. Not getting involved in others' conflicts might go well down in Africa for example.

matthewdgreen 4y ago
Russia is heavily involved in Syria, so I don't see any principled reason to believe that "not getting involved in others' conflicts" is a red line for that alliance.

lcvw 4y ago

Agreed. Russia and China have alienated every one of their neighbors by invading them, trying to take them over economically, and other bs. The US is the global hegemon mainly because of fear of Russia/China, which is not going to go away short of regime change imo.