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Is your unspoken claim that Japan bought Russian gas because Australia just suddenly refused to sell gas anymore?

by yosito 4y ago

defrost 4y ago
I haven't made any claim, I've reported two factoids and backed them with solid references to allow readers to verify and pursue that angle for themselves. FWiW I was part of a mineral and energy intelligence group started decades ago that was sold onto S&P a decade ago ( mineral arm at [1] ) and the protocol there was to report solid factoids backed by solid references and where applicable create GIS links. That was the product many paid good money to subscribe to, not our opinions or claims. [1] https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/metals-mining https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/met...
- John23832 4y ago
  > I haven't made any claim, I've reported two factoids and backed them with solid references to allow readers to verify and pursue that angle for themselves. And for what reason? The world is full of infinite factoids, but you chose to post this? It's not unreasonable for someone to ask what you intend to purport.
  - defrost 4y ago
    In a story about Japan and energy it's reasonable to post a brief summary of where Japan gets a large chunk of energy from and recent energy news. I'm Australian so I chose snippets relevant to Australia. Professionally we trawled, linked, and posted everything in minerals (or energy) relavant to exploration and development and put that up for subscribers to helicopter over and dig into as they saw fit. Unfortuneatly this HN comment is too short to post the entire history of Japans energy imports|exports, companies, boards, shares, etc.
- yosito 4y ago
  Sorry, I was asking you to connect the dots because I didn't understand your comment.
  - defrost 4y ago
    Fair enough. I've been in the intelligence game (gathering data) long enough that I habitually defer connecting dots as long as possible. What is known is that Japan is facing a future energy shortage, they're addressing (some?) of that with new nuclear reactors (which take time), that Australia is making noise about keeping more of its gas reserves to itself or off the board altogether (fossil fuel aversion), and that energy decisions take timeframes of five to ten years to swing about. Now we have Japan sourcing Russian oil. Is this a long tem thing (unknown to me), is this a strategic move signaling that if Japan cannot get cheap enough short term energy from elsewhere then it'll go to Russia (probably). I know nothing for certain, I'm interested in comment or input from others, and I threw out the little nuggets above as they add to the understanding of the bigger picture in which this is taking place.
    - plugger 4y ago
      > Australia is making noise about keeping more of its gas reserves to itself or off the board altogether (fossil fuel aversion), and that energy decisions take timeframes of five to ten years to swing about. I don't think this is about not wanting to sell abroad for climatic reasons, I think it's solely down to the east coast of Australia having to buy gas at spot pricing because their entire production is sold into the gas market instead of having a percentage reserved for domestic use at lower rates, like we do out here in WA.
      - defrost 4y ago
        That's a good distinction to make, like yourself I'm from WA and as native Aussies we're a bit more across the details than most of HN. For the East coast it's all about having a cap on gas prices and a local set aside. For outside capital companies like the Japanese gas investors, from their PoV, it's about uncertainity and reduced profits. They want to buy in at fixed capital costs and in return have a product they can take home (home ground security) and ship about to maximise profits (especially during a war fueled energy hungry period). With our selfish demands of local resources for local markets at local shop prices coupled with political rumblings that come wih a change of Federal party that (however feasibly) foreshadow a possible greener Australia (hmmm, right?) ... well. That's enough to have others in the energy pool hedge their bets a little and seek diversity in sourcing, it takes a long time to get new sources and it's no fun running low on energy.
senectus1 4y ago
Japan really doesn't like that out media and politics have been recently and loudly complaining that australians dont get to buy our own gas as cheaply as we sell it to Japan. They're expecting our newish Labor Gov to tear up agreements to fix this.
plugger 4y ago
They're not directly related as Australia sells LNG to Japan and Japan is buying oil from Russia, but it you have a read of the ABC article linked you see the following: >"The consequence of these well-intentioned policies will be that the increasing energy demand in our region will be met by coal and not by natural gas," Mr Ueda told MPs at private parliamentary function. >"The result will be much higher global greenhouse gas emissions and will make net zero by 2050 an impossible task. >"On the geopolitical front, Australia's 'quiet quitting' of the LNG business has potentially very sinister consequences. >He said the question of who would replace Australian supply into the market was front and centre. >"Alarmingly, the 'inconvenient truth' is most likely that Russia, China and Iran fill the void," he said. I don't think this is coincidence, and I do believe Japan has a lot to lose from the often talked about 'energy wars' given they have no resources to rely on domestically to fill these requirements.

Is your unspoken claim that Japan bought Russian gas because Australia just suddenly refused to sell gas anymore?

by yosito 4y ago

Is your unspoken claim that Japan bought Russian gas because Australia just suddenly refused to sell gas anymore?

I haven't made any claim, I've reported two factoids and backed them with solid references to allow readers to verify and pursue that angle for themselves. FWiW I was part of a mineral and energy intelligence group started decades ago that was sold onto S&P a decade ago ( mineral arm at [1] ) and the protocol there was to report solid factoids backed by solid references and where applicable create GIS links. That was the product many paid good money to subscribe to, not our opinions or claims. [1] https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/metals-mining https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/met...

John23832 4y ago
> I haven't made any claim, I've reported two factoids and backed them with solid references to allow readers to verify and pursue that angle for themselves. And for what reason? The world is full of infinite factoids, but you chose to post this? It's not unreasonable for someone to ask what you intend to purport.
- defrost 4y ago
  In a story about Japan and energy it's reasonable to post a brief summary of where Japan gets a large chunk of energy from and recent energy news. I'm Australian so I chose snippets relevant to Australia. Professionally we trawled, linked, and posted everything in minerals (or energy) relavant to exploration and development and put that up for subscribers to helicopter over and dig into as they saw fit. Unfortuneatly this HN comment is too short to post the entire history of Japans energy imports|exports, companies, boards, shares, etc.
yosito 4y ago
Sorry, I was asking you to connect the dots because I didn't understand your comment.
- defrost 4y ago
  Fair enough. I've been in the intelligence game (gathering data) long enough that I habitually defer connecting dots as long as possible. What is known is that Japan is facing a future energy shortage, they're addressing (some?) of that with new nuclear reactors (which take time), that Australia is making noise about keeping more of its gas reserves to itself or off the board altogether (fossil fuel aversion), and that energy decisions take timeframes of five to ten years to swing about. Now we have Japan sourcing Russian oil. Is this a long tem thing (unknown to me), is this a strategic move signaling that if Japan cannot get cheap enough short term energy from elsewhere then it'll go to Russia (probably). I know nothing for certain, I'm interested in comment or input from others, and I threw out the little nuggets above as they add to the understanding of the bigger picture in which this is taking place.
  - plugger 4y ago
    > Australia is making noise about keeping more of its gas reserves to itself or off the board altogether (fossil fuel aversion), and that energy decisions take timeframes of five to ten years to swing about. I don't think this is about not wanting to sell abroad for climatic reasons, I think it's solely down to the east coast of Australia having to buy gas at spot pricing because their entire production is sold into the gas market instead of having a percentage reserved for domestic use at lower rates, like we do out here in WA.
    - defrost 4y ago
      That's a good distinction to make, like yourself I'm from WA and as native Aussies we're a bit more across the details than most of HN. For the East coast it's all about having a cap on gas prices and a local set aside. For outside capital companies like the Japanese gas investors, from their PoV, it's about uncertainity and reduced profits. They want to buy in at fixed capital costs and in return have a product they can take home (home ground security) and ship about to maximise profits (especially during a war fueled energy hungry period). With our selfish demands of local resources for local markets at local shop prices coupled with political rumblings that come wih a change of Federal party that (however feasibly) foreshadow a possible greener Australia (hmmm, right?) ... well. That's enough to have others in the energy pool hedge their bets a little and seek diversity in sourcing, it takes a long time to get new sources and it's no fun running low on energy.

senectus1 4y ago

Japan really doesn't like that out media and politics have been recently and loudly complaining that australians dont get to buy our own gas as cheaply as we sell it to Japan. They're expecting our newish Labor Gov to tear up agreements to fix this.

plugger 4y ago

They're not directly related as Australia sells LNG to Japan and Japan is buying oil from Russia, but it you have a read of the ABC article linked you see the following: >"The consequence of these well-intentioned policies will be that the increasing energy demand in our region will be met by coal and not by natural gas," Mr Ueda told MPs at private parliamentary function. >"The result will be much higher global greenhouse gas emissions and will make net zero by 2050 an impossible task. >"On the geopolitical front, Australia's 'quiet quitting' of the LNG business has potentially very sinister consequences. >He said the question of who would replace Australian supply into the market was front and centre. >"Alarmingly, the 'inconvenient truth' is most likely that Russia, China and Iran fill the void," he said. I don't think this is coincidence, and I do believe Japan has a lot to lose from the often talked about 'energy wars' given they have no resources to rely on domestically to fill these requirements.