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Money quote: 'It’s not as if Japan can’t manage without this. They can. They simply don’t want to,” said James Brown, a professor at Temple University’s Japan

Money quote: 'It’s not as if Japan can’t manage without this. They can. They simply don’t want to,” said James Brown, a professor at Temple University’s Japan campus. Prof. Brown, who studies Russia-Japan relations, said Japan should move to withdraw from the Sakhalin projects eventually “if they’re really serious about supporting Ukraine.” Mitsui & Co. and Mitsubishi Corp. , two Japanese companies, collectively own a 22.5% stake in Sakhalin-2 and successfully pushed to maintain the stake last year with backing from Tokyo' At least one middling positive of the invasion has been a litmus test for the levels of integrity of various countries. Russia annexed Crimea almost a decade ago. If you haven't read the writing on the wall and maneuvered independence you're incompetent or immoral.

rayiner 4y ago
> At least one middling positive of the invasion has been a litmus test for the levels of integrity of various countries. Russia annexed Crimea almost a decade ago. If you haven't read the writing on the wall and maneuvered independence you're incompetent or immoral. I can’t really parse this. Why should Japan care about Crimea or Ukraine?
- ben_w 4y ago
  Looking at OSM, the sea borders of Russia and Japan touch. That seems like a good reason for Japan to care about what Russia is doing to another country it shares a border with.
  - gatlin 4y ago
    Is the unstated assumption here that Russia is mindlessly belligerent and going to attack any neighbor for any reason?
    - adriancr 4y ago
      That seems to be its history, so yes. Although reason seems mostly to expand, you probably meant with any pretext.
      - gatlin 4y ago
        We have experienced different realities. There is no point in trying to discuss this.
    - ben_w 4y ago
      Mindlessly belligerent, yes. "Any reason" is a bit of a stretch — I doubt Putin has a dice with country names on it — but given how dumb it was to invade Ukraine, it's not unreasonable to assume he's dumb enough to try Japan.
      - EGreg 4y ago
        [flagged]
        adriancr 4y ago
        It seems you can't really handle OP being right and have resorted to what-about-ism. So it seems you have conceded the argument and agree that Russia is mindlessly belligerent and now are saying that's fine because you think x-y-z are also belligerent? (Wrong but eh, not the subject of discussion).
        EGreg 4y ago
        If by "the OP being right" you mean that Russia is pretty much like every other "Great Power" then yeah. Not only can I handle that, but I'm saying the same thing. But that's not what the OP seems to be saying. He seems to be saying that, history has shown Russia is uniquely a bloodthirsty country that wants to attack its neighbors for no reason, any chance it gets. In a "normal" analysis of countries since, say, 1980s, one would see that countries typically attack as a reaction to something. Even USA invading Iraq was officially in response to Saddam ousting inspectors and maintaining ambiguity about WMDs. And even the secret war of bombing in Laos, which was especially egregious (since Laos presented zero threat, and yet was bombed more than any country in history), was justified by the "domino theory" that we cannot allow communism to spread around the world, because one day it may "challenge our interests". That's why USA and NATO want to flip Russia's neighbors against Russia, even if it means a CIA-sponsored insurgency war where a million people die. In this kind of geopolitical chess, it is far better that they fight Russia over there, than having to later fight them all over here, economically and militarily, as a geopolitical bloc. Pick them off, divide and conquer. Russia, like a cornered animal, will react, as would any country to whom it is done. That kind of stuff is understandable -- geopolitical chess, action, reaction. But if one goes to say that Russia is somehow beyond reacting, actually goes out and invades countries to grab their territory for fun and profit, that's saying much more. And in that case, I would push back on that narrative. Even the USA isn't doing that, officially. They are always "reacting" to what they perceive are a threat to their interests and security. But in the USA case it's much harder to justify when a country they're invading is 3000 miles away. The point of my reply was to say that each country (Russia included) has media that radicalizes their population to think exactly this kind of "cartoon villain" thing about their geopolitical rival, and I wish we would all listen to each other's media and hold our politicians accountable to talk to each other more frequently, as Khrustchev and Kennedy did, so they can avoid killing millions of people as "collateral damage" between the Great Powers. Because watch, if we escalate with China around Taiwan, we'll be saying the same thing about China being a cartoon villain in about 3-4 years from now. Oh, and avoiding nuclear war: https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15250.doc.htm https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15250.doc.htm
    - blibble 4y ago
      what do you mean assumption? they have attacked several neighbours for no reason and have stated they wish to "reclaim" others
      - selivanovp 4y ago
        That's simply not true. You should learn about conflicts not from CNN news. 1. Russia hasn't stated a wish to reclaim other countries, even former parts of USSR. 2. Both military conflicts with neighbors Russia participated in: Georgia and Ukraine had very serious reasons and it was not Russia, that initiated both.
        blibble 4y ago
        > You should learn about conflicts not from CNN news. what would be better then? RT I suppose?
        deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
        ceejayoz 4y ago
        > Russia hasn't stated a wish to reclaim other countries, even former parts of USSR. Actions count more than words. 20 Feb 2022: "Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov denied Sunday that the Kremlin is preparing for an invasion of neighboring Ukraine..." https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-ambassador-anatoly-antonov-no-such-plans-invasion-face-the-nation/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-ambassador-anato... 21 Feb 2022: Invasion!
  - bigbillheck 4y ago
    > Looking at OSM, I would have thought this kind of knowledge was in the table stakes for anybody with any kind of interest in the matter.
    - ben_w 4y ago
      As I live on the opposite side of the continent, I wanted to be sure they actually shared a border rather than just assume my memory was correct because they're nearby.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  Japan has ongoing territorial disputes with Russia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute It's probably in their best interest not to signal "it's fine to forcibly annex someone else's lands".
  - pintxo 4y ago
    Given this specific example is about islands controlled by Russia, but wanted by Japan, it sounds like Crimea is good precedent for Japan?
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      No? They've expressed zero interest in resolving the disagreement via force, and parts of Ukraine are currently held by Russia in a similar fashion.
      - EGreg 4y ago
        Then what was the point of your example? What does Japan gain from the idea that one country cannot take another country's territory by force, if it is in fact Russia that is in control of these islands? If anything, Japan would like them back eventually. All attempts at diplomacy have failed, so force would be the only other option.
        ceejayoz 4y ago
        > Then what was the point of your example? That Japan most certainly doesn't want territorial disputes to be resolved by might and current possession status. > If anything, Japan would like them back eventually. Yes, and they'd prefer "Russia currently holds them, so they get to keep them" not to be precedent. Russia is attempting to set that precedent in eastern Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova currently.
        pintxo 4y ago
        So Japan can get a win out of the Crimea situation either way? If Russia „wins“ they could justify using force to free their „historic“ possession. And if Russia „looses“ they can argue having military control does not imply ownership. And that usage of force to revert military occupation is legal.
- soco 4y ago
  When Japan decided to join the UN they decided they want to care about other countries. One aspect of that is joining on the sanctions front as defined and decided by said UN - which is a body where also Japan has a say.
  - notsosec 4y ago
    There are no UN sanctions against Russia. The countries that invaded Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, etc. decided to sanction Russia, but it's their own thing.
  - FpUser 4y ago
    The UN has condemned the invasion. It did not however sanction Russia. All sanctions are imposed by individual countries and blocks. Russia holds veto power. I guess it'll be pretty hard for UN to ignore it.
- clouddrover 4y ago
  Why shouldn't Japan care about Ukraine? If Ukraine can be invaded and the rest of the world does nothing, then why bother having borders or nations or the rule of law? If Ukraine's territory doesn't matter, then why should Japan's territory matter?
  - soco 4y ago
    When I hear the argument "why should country X care about the war in Y" I imagine those people would be also those neighbors who would let your house burn because hey it's not their yard.
  - 5040 4y ago
    Did Japan care about Turkey's invasion of Greece? Sadly, this sort of thing happens all the time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      Yes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_367 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Counci... Japan was one of 15 votes on the UN Security Council to pass it.
- risyachka 4y ago
  Doing business with russia is directly sponsoring terrorism. Why should Japan care about it? For obvious reasons.
  - AlgorithmicTime 4y ago
    Doing business with the USA is also directly sponsoring terrorism. I don't see a big moral difference.
- st4lz 4y ago
  There is a shocking reality of how short-sighted and strategically shallow the opinions of people may be, even very literate ones with unlimited access to information. There are very long tensions between Japan and Russia about the Kuril Islands, that both countries have a claim on. It is very possible, that the same vague claims used on annexing Crimea today, or Donbas, would be used against Japan, and may not stop there. What is more, Japan is an ally of the United States since WW2, and seems to benefit much both militarily and economically. What is more, another raising power in Asia and growing tensions around Taiwan may have the same consequences for Asia, which may threaten japanese influence in the reqion. We are also seeing proliferation of nuclear weapons, and the threats and blackmail is rising, when deescalation is seen as a sign of weakness. Usually, being united against common threat is the cheapest strategy, and to pay a few bucks less for oil might turn to be very expensive in the long run. If there would be no punishment for disrespecting international law, the chaos would come.
  - FpUser 4y ago
    >"If there would be no punishment for disrespecting international law, the chaos would come." The list of "disrespecting international law" is pretty big. The list of punishment is way shorter and highly selective.
    - st4lz 4y ago
      Could you please list any other war of conquest with that much casualties, armour usage and refugee issue in Europe? And what punishment are we talking about, voluntary economical sanctions? Those numbers of atrocities, stealing children, mass graves - I still can't understand how the international response is so mild.
      - bigbillheck 4y ago
        > in Europe? This is an interesting little bit on the end of that question.
        4y ago
- reducesuffering 4y ago
  > Why should Japan care about Crimea or Ukraine? For the same reason your neighbor should care if someone breaks into your home, points a gun at your family, and says half your house is theirs now. Oh and no police are coming.
- pigsty 4y ago
  There’s a non-zero chance Russia pulls a Crimea and needs to defend Russian speakers in some remote region of Hokkaido, or starts seizing Japanese waters as their own. And that’s ignoring the islands Japan claims but Russia has controlled for decades. This also sets a precedent for other neighbors. Korea claims random islands and politicians sometimes call for extreme actions to defend them from Japan (Japan does absolutely nothing and Japanese people, for the most part, do not know of the existence of these islands). China claims random islands that Japan controls with some of the more extreme factions saying Okinawa in its entirety isn’t legitimately Japanese, so it should be independent. But also Okinawa used to be somewhat subservient to China, so eventually independence would mean being a province of China, just like Russia is claiming with eastern Ukraine (or even all of Ukraine, depending on the day). And there’s also Taiwan, which if China sees people get burnt out with the Ukraine war and go back to normal trade in a year, gives them pretty good odds to rain down missiles then rush in and seize the land with minimum international backfire. And if Taiwan is easily claimed, there’s no reason not to pursue Okinawa and South China Sea territories. And South Sea conflicts would screw over Japan as well, since there’s loads of trade with Vietnam and other countries in the region, and Japan is heavily dependent on food imports from China and elsewhere. Japan has a lot of reasons to care. If Russia’s strategy pays off (and it’s unfortunately seeming like it will, since people outside of the region are getting burnt out on it and Russian mothers will happily fight until their last son is getting picked apart by dogs), those same methods will be used in East Asia.
baybal2 4y ago
> Japan should move to withdraw from the Sakhalin projects eventually “if they’re really serious about supporting Ukraine.” What an irony. Japan has to buy its own oil from Russia, from the island Russia seized from Japan.
- sampa 4y ago
  it wasn't 'seized'. it was lost because Japan lost in WW2. they had it coming partnering with Hitler and going against USSR and Allies. also they murdered millions of people in very sadistic ways
  - baybal2 4y ago
    [dead]
Eumenes 4y ago
[flagged]
- rythmshifter 4y ago
  yeah they're so tired of it that they asked for and received the blessing of the White House to do this.
Ekaros 4y ago
>At least one middling positive of the invasion has been a litmus test for the levels of integrity of various countries. Russia annexed Crimea almost a decade ago. If you haven't read the writing on the wall and maneuvered independence you're incompetent or immoral. After invasion of Iraq over 20 years ago it was clear that there is absolutely zero integrity anywhere in this world.

rayiner 4y ago

> At least one middling positive of the invasion has been a litmus test for the levels of integrity of various countries. Russia annexed Crimea almost a decade ago. If you haven't read the writing on the wall and maneuvered independence you're incompetent or immoral. I can’t really parse this. Why should Japan care about Crimea or Ukraine?

ben_w 4y ago
Looking at OSM, the sea borders of Russia and Japan touch. That seems like a good reason for Japan to care about what Russia is doing to another country it shares a border with.
- gatlin 4y ago
  Is the unstated assumption here that Russia is mindlessly belligerent and going to attack any neighbor for any reason?
  - adriancr 4y ago
    That seems to be its history, so yes. Although reason seems mostly to expand, you probably meant with any pretext.
    - gatlin 4y ago
      We have experienced different realities. There is no point in trying to discuss this.
  - ben_w 4y ago
    Mindlessly belligerent, yes. "Any reason" is a bit of a stretch — I doubt Putin has a dice with country names on it — but given how dumb it was to invade Ukraine, it's not unreasonable to assume he's dumb enough to try Japan.
    - EGreg 4y ago
      [flagged]
      - adriancr 4y ago
        It seems you can't really handle OP being right and have resorted to what-about-ism. So it seems you have conceded the argument and agree that Russia is mindlessly belligerent and now are saying that's fine because you think x-y-z are also belligerent? (Wrong but eh, not the subject of discussion).
        EGreg 4y ago
        If by "the OP being right" you mean that Russia is pretty much like every other "Great Power" then yeah. Not only can I handle that, but I'm saying the same thing. But that's not what the OP seems to be saying. He seems to be saying that, history has shown Russia is uniquely a bloodthirsty country that wants to attack its neighbors for no reason, any chance it gets. In a "normal" analysis of countries since, say, 1980s, one would see that countries typically attack as a reaction to something. Even USA invading Iraq was officially in response to Saddam ousting inspectors and maintaining ambiguity about WMDs. And even the secret war of bombing in Laos, which was especially egregious (since Laos presented zero threat, and yet was bombed more than any country in history), was justified by the "domino theory" that we cannot allow communism to spread around the world, because one day it may "challenge our interests". That's why USA and NATO want to flip Russia's neighbors against Russia, even if it means a CIA-sponsored insurgency war where a million people die. In this kind of geopolitical chess, it is far better that they fight Russia over there, than having to later fight them all over here, economically and militarily, as a geopolitical bloc. Pick them off, divide and conquer. Russia, like a cornered animal, will react, as would any country to whom it is done. That kind of stuff is understandable -- geopolitical chess, action, reaction. But if one goes to say that Russia is somehow beyond reacting, actually goes out and invades countries to grab their territory for fun and profit, that's saying much more. And in that case, I would push back on that narrative. Even the USA isn't doing that, officially. They are always "reacting" to what they perceive are a threat to their interests and security. But in the USA case it's much harder to justify when a country they're invading is 3000 miles away. The point of my reply was to say that each country (Russia included) has media that radicalizes their population to think exactly this kind of "cartoon villain" thing about their geopolitical rival, and I wish we would all listen to each other's media and hold our politicians accountable to talk to each other more frequently, as Khrustchev and Kennedy did, so they can avoid killing millions of people as "collateral damage" between the Great Powers. Because watch, if we escalate with China around Taiwan, we'll be saying the same thing about China being a cartoon villain in about 3-4 years from now. Oh, and avoiding nuclear war: https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15250.doc.htm https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15250.doc.htm
  - blibble 4y ago
    what do you mean assumption? they have attacked several neighbours for no reason and have stated they wish to "reclaim" others
    - selivanovp 4y ago
      That's simply not true. You should learn about conflicts not from CNN news. 1. Russia hasn't stated a wish to reclaim other countries, even former parts of USSR. 2. Both military conflicts with neighbors Russia participated in: Georgia and Ukraine had very serious reasons and it was not Russia, that initiated both.
      - blibble 4y ago
        > You should learn about conflicts not from CNN news. what would be better then? RT I suppose?
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
      - ceejayoz 4y ago
        > Russia hasn't stated a wish to reclaim other countries, even former parts of USSR. Actions count more than words. 20 Feb 2022: "Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov denied Sunday that the Kremlin is preparing for an invasion of neighboring Ukraine..." https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-ambassador-anatoly-antonov-no-such-plans-invasion-face-the-nation/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-ambassador-anato... 21 Feb 2022: Invasion!
- bigbillheck 4y ago
  > Looking at OSM, I would have thought this kind of knowledge was in the table stakes for anybody with any kind of interest in the matter.
  - ben_w 4y ago
    As I live on the opposite side of the continent, I wanted to be sure they actually shared a border rather than just assume my memory was correct because they're nearby.
ceejayoz 4y ago
Japan has ongoing territorial disputes with Russia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute It's probably in their best interest not to signal "it's fine to forcibly annex someone else's lands".
- pintxo 4y ago
  Given this specific example is about islands controlled by Russia, but wanted by Japan, it sounds like Crimea is good precedent for Japan?
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    No? They've expressed zero interest in resolving the disagreement via force, and parts of Ukraine are currently held by Russia in a similar fashion.
    - EGreg 4y ago
      Then what was the point of your example? What does Japan gain from the idea that one country cannot take another country's territory by force, if it is in fact Russia that is in control of these islands? If anything, Japan would like them back eventually. All attempts at diplomacy have failed, so force would be the only other option.
      - ceejayoz 4y ago
        > Then what was the point of your example? That Japan most certainly doesn't want territorial disputes to be resolved by might and current possession status. > If anything, Japan would like them back eventually. Yes, and they'd prefer "Russia currently holds them, so they get to keep them" not to be precedent. Russia is attempting to set that precedent in eastern Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova currently.
        pintxo 4y ago
        So Japan can get a win out of the Crimea situation either way? If Russia „wins“ they could justify using force to free their „historic“ possession. And if Russia „looses“ they can argue having military control does not imply ownership. And that usage of force to revert military occupation is legal.
soco 4y ago
When Japan decided to join the UN they decided they want to care about other countries. One aspect of that is joining on the sanctions front as defined and decided by said UN - which is a body where also Japan has a say.
- notsosec 4y ago
  There are no UN sanctions against Russia. The countries that invaded Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, etc. decided to sanction Russia, but it's their own thing.
- FpUser 4y ago
  The UN has condemned the invasion. It did not however sanction Russia. All sanctions are imposed by individual countries and blocks. Russia holds veto power. I guess it'll be pretty hard for UN to ignore it.
clouddrover 4y ago
Why shouldn't Japan care about Ukraine? If Ukraine can be invaded and the rest of the world does nothing, then why bother having borders or nations or the rule of law? If Ukraine's territory doesn't matter, then why should Japan's territory matter?
- soco 4y ago
  When I hear the argument "why should country X care about the war in Y" I imagine those people would be also those neighbors who would let your house burn because hey it's not their yard.
- 5040 4y ago
  Did Japan care about Turkey's invasion of Greece? Sadly, this sort of thing happens all the time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    Yes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_367 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Counci... Japan was one of 15 votes on the UN Security Council to pass it.
risyachka 4y ago
Doing business with russia is directly sponsoring terrorism. Why should Japan care about it? For obvious reasons.
- AlgorithmicTime 4y ago
  Doing business with the USA is also directly sponsoring terrorism. I don't see a big moral difference.
st4lz 4y ago
There is a shocking reality of how short-sighted and strategically shallow the opinions of people may be, even very literate ones with unlimited access to information. There are very long tensions between Japan and Russia about the Kuril Islands, that both countries have a claim on. It is very possible, that the same vague claims used on annexing Crimea today, or Donbas, would be used against Japan, and may not stop there. What is more, Japan is an ally of the United States since WW2, and seems to benefit much both militarily and economically. What is more, another raising power in Asia and growing tensions around Taiwan may have the same consequences for Asia, which may threaten japanese influence in the reqion. We are also seeing proliferation of nuclear weapons, and the threats and blackmail is rising, when deescalation is seen as a sign of weakness. Usually, being united against common threat is the cheapest strategy, and to pay a few bucks less for oil might turn to be very expensive in the long run. If there would be no punishment for disrespecting international law, the chaos would come.
- FpUser 4y ago
  >"If there would be no punishment for disrespecting international law, the chaos would come." The list of "disrespecting international law" is pretty big. The list of punishment is way shorter and highly selective.
  - st4lz 4y ago
    Could you please list any other war of conquest with that much casualties, armour usage and refugee issue in Europe? And what punishment are we talking about, voluntary economical sanctions? Those numbers of atrocities, stealing children, mass graves - I still can't understand how the international response is so mild.
    - bigbillheck 4y ago
      > in Europe? This is an interesting little bit on the end of that question.
      - 4y ago
reducesuffering 4y ago
> Why should Japan care about Crimea or Ukraine? For the same reason your neighbor should care if someone breaks into your home, points a gun at your family, and says half your house is theirs now. Oh and no police are coming.
pigsty 4y ago
There’s a non-zero chance Russia pulls a Crimea and needs to defend Russian speakers in some remote region of Hokkaido, or starts seizing Japanese waters as their own. And that’s ignoring the islands Japan claims but Russia has controlled for decades. This also sets a precedent for other neighbors. Korea claims random islands and politicians sometimes call for extreme actions to defend them from Japan (Japan does absolutely nothing and Japanese people, for the most part, do not know of the existence of these islands). China claims random islands that Japan controls with some of the more extreme factions saying Okinawa in its entirety isn’t legitimately Japanese, so it should be independent. But also Okinawa used to be somewhat subservient to China, so eventually independence would mean being a province of China, just like Russia is claiming with eastern Ukraine (or even all of Ukraine, depending on the day). And there’s also Taiwan, which if China sees people get burnt out with the Ukraine war and go back to normal trade in a year, gives them pretty good odds to rain down missiles then rush in and seize the land with minimum international backfire. And if Taiwan is easily claimed, there’s no reason not to pursue Okinawa and South China Sea territories. And South Sea conflicts would screw over Japan as well, since there’s loads of trade with Vietnam and other countries in the region, and Japan is heavily dependent on food imports from China and elsewhere. Japan has a lot of reasons to care. If Russia’s strategy pays off (and it’s unfortunately seeming like it will, since people outside of the region are getting burnt out on it and Russian mothers will happily fight until their last son is getting picked apart by dogs), those same methods will be used in East Asia.

baybal2 4y ago

> Japan should move to withdraw from the Sakhalin projects eventually “if they’re really serious about supporting Ukraine.” What an irony. Japan has to buy its own oil from Russia, from the island Russia seized from Japan.

sampa 4y ago
it wasn't 'seized'. it was lost because Japan lost in WW2. they had it coming partnering with Hitler and going against USSR and Allies. also they murdered millions of people in very sadistic ways
- baybal2 4y ago
  [dead]

Eumenes 4y ago

[flagged]

rythmshifter 4y ago
yeah they're so tired of it that they asked for and received the blessing of the White House to do this.

Ekaros 4y ago

>At least one middling positive of the invasion has been a litmus test for the levels of integrity of various countries. Russia annexed Crimea almost a decade ago. If you haven't read the writing on the wall and maneuvered independence you're incompetent or immoral. After invasion of Iraq over 20 years ago it was clear that there is absolutely zero integrity anywhere in this world.