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> > Sounds like the total divorce rate goes up. > > > the absence of a discernible long-run increase in divorce risk among these women > If you're pulling in
by maest 4y ago
> > Sounds like the total divorce rate goes up.
> > > the absence of a discernible long-run increase in divorce risk among these women
> If you're pulling in divorces from the future, shouldn't the long term rate go down?
- anonymouskimmer 4y agoThe long-term rate appears to be level. This rate is not divorces per year, but divorces per person (or married couple). A level long-term rate with an increased short-term rate means, as said in the paper, that divorces-already-in-planning are just sped up.
- maest 4y agoIf it's true that divorces are being brought forward this means that couples who remain together after the e.g. 1 year mark are stronger, thus you'd expect the long term rate to go down.
- anonymouskimmer 4y agoI don't understand why that would be the case. With a long-term rate staying stable, either a couple is going to break up, or they're not. Pushing forward the breakups would not alter the long-term rate, just as pushing backward the breakups (as long as they're still within the window observed by the study) doesn't lower the long-term rate.