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One of the few mitigating things of agw is that it predominantly hits Arctic climates and the impact to tropical locations is comparatively small. If India was

by Pxtl 4y ago

One of the few mitigating things of agw is that it predominantly hits Arctic climates and the impact to tropical locations is comparatively small. If India was warming as much as Nunavut, they'd all be dead already.

tzs 4y ago
The biggest problem India and Pakistan will have to deal with from warming is that they depend heavily on water from the Himalayas that will be greatly diminished if we don't get warming under control. If India and Pakistan end up fighting over declining water supplies and their nukes get involved it could become a serious problem for the rest of the world. Here's an interesting paper about that: "A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security" [1]. It looks at a scenario where they each hit the other with 50 nukes about the size of the one used on Hiroshima. Here's the abstract: > A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history. [1] https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1919049117 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1919049117

by Pxtl 4y ago

tzs 4y ago

The biggest problem India and Pakistan will have to deal with from warming is that they depend heavily on water from the Himalayas that will be greatly diminished if we don't get warming under control. If India and Pakistan end up fighting over declining water supplies and their nukes get involved it could become a serious problem for the rest of the world. Here's an interesting paper about that: "A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security" [1]. It looks at a scenario where they each hit the other with 50 nukes about the size of the one used on Hiroshima. Here's the abstract: > A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history. [1] https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1919049117 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1919049117