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> It looks to me OPEC has always been making decisions that negatively affect the US/Western economy? Or maybe only the bad news get the attention? You seem to

by Syonyk 4y ago

> It looks to me OPEC has always been making decisions that negatively affect the US/Western economy? Or maybe only the bad news get the attention? You seem to forget here that the OPEC countries have their own goals, their own motives, and their own ability to influence world events. They don't exist purely as puppet states to pump cheap oil for America, as much as they are often portrayed that way in the western press. > Anyway, oil and gas should just die out. This is literally monopolistic behaviors. Yeah. Well, monopolies gonna monopoly. They're not really a monopoly, but they're a major producer in a globally fungible product with insanely inelastic demand. So, yes, they can swing the prices to their benefit. "Should just die out," sure, and you're going to replace that energy with what, exactly? Go look at the percentage of global energy supplied by renewables and nuclear, include hydro, it doesn't matter. Apply whatever correction factors you want for the efficiency difference between electric transportation and combustion based (you gain a bunch on the ground, not nearly so much in the air), and then realize just how much of that energy is delivered as thermal energy where you don't get to gain much by going to electric. You can gain some for low grade heat with heat pumps, but process heat and such, not any time soon. Of course, that nobody is willing to even consider "using radically less energy" as a solution indicates how likely we are to actually find solutions. I deal with renewable energy regularly (my office is a purely standalone, off grid system, I work in there year round), and I very much have to adapt my energy use to that which is locally available - which means, on cold, dark winter days, I'm more than a bit bundled up. And even with 5kW of panels hung for a small space, I still rely on fossil backup energy (a small generator or a propane heater) for some of the winter inversion weeks, because 100W coming in off 5kW of panel (and no wind, either) isn't enough to warm the space and run my limited winter computing needs.

Gwypaas 4y ago
> Go look at the percentage of global energy supplied by renewables and nuclear, include hydro, it doesn't matter. You must differentiate between primary energy usage and what an electrified future entails. An ICE car is 20% efficient and does not have regenerative braking. Coal power plants sit at ~30%, topping out at 40% if using supercritical steam. For example, electrified transports will increase the grid demand by ~15-30% according to most studies. Looking at heating with fossil compared to heat pumps, the difference is 1.5 - 5x depending on temperature.
- Syonyk 4y ago
  You didn't read my post, because I very specifically mentioned that - that one gains something from efficiency of use with some,, but not all, uses of fossil energy. The problem with heat pumps (I have one, I'm quite familiar with how they work) is that they need the most energy at the times it's hardest to come by. During spring and fall, when it's "a bit cool," they work great. As you get deeper into winter, with colder temperatures and shorter days, their efficiency is dropping off, so they use more power, when it's not available. I think mine is rated to a COP of >1 down to -15F or so, but in reality, I'm sure it's not achieving that when we have freezing fog and the coils are iced up inside 10 minutes of operation. You can't use heat pumps for most high temperature process heating, though.
  - Gwypaas 4y ago
    That is missing the forest for the trees. Yes, there are scenarios where a heat pump is not optimal, but the point is not to fix it all tomorrow. It is to solve the 9X% while creating new industries enabling the last more challenging applications. What will OPEC do when the demand for their product is down 9N%?
    - Syonyk 4y ago
      Presumably, be too busy with their collapsed economy to really care what's going on elsewhere in the world. Or have moved onto generating a lot of electricity from their rather copious amounts of desert land. Also, you won't get to 9X% with our current industrial society intact. You rather rapidly run into material limits trying to extract all the resources needed to build the amount of energy collecting equipment needed. Figure out how to live on 10% of your current energy in the winter and a decent fraction of it in the summer, and the problem looks rather radically easier. Just rather radically less like a 24/7 global consumer society.
      - Gwypaas 4y ago
        What resources are the limitations? For example, this is what the USGS says about reserves figures: > Reserves data are dynamic. They may be reduced as ore is mined and (or) the feasibility of extraction diminishes, or more commonly, they may continue to increase as additional deposits (known or recently discovered) are developed, or currently exploited deposits are more thoroughly explored and (or) new technology or economic variables improve their economic feasibility. Reserves may be considered a working inventory of mining companies’ supplies of an economically extractable mineral commodity. As such, the magnitude of that inventory is necessarily limited by many considerations, including cost of drilling, taxes, price of the mineral commodity being mined, and the demand for it. Reserves will be developed to the point of business needs and geologic limitations of economic ore grade and tonnage. > For example, in 1970, identified and undiscovered world copper resources were estimated to contain 1.6 billion metric tons of copper, with reserves of about 280 million tons of copper. Since then, about 600 million tons of copper have been produced worldwide, but world copper reserves in 2021 were estimated to be 880 million tons of copper, more than triple those in 1970, despite the depletion by mining of much more than the 1970 estimated reserves. https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022-appendixes.pdf https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022-appendixes... Appendix C to 2022 Lithium Statistics and Information. https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/lithium-statistics-and-information https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-c...
mardifoufs 4y ago
What a breath of fresh air this comment is. Westerners truly suffer from a terminal case of "main character syndrome." It's really a bit hard to believe the comments here, as if the west of all places hasn't been historically very keen to damage OPEC members (especially in the Middle East). But for some reason, they should still act in the west's best interests, to their own detriment for... reasons?

by Syonyk 4y ago

Gwypaas 4y ago

> Go look at the percentage of global energy supplied by renewables and nuclear, include hydro, it doesn't matter. You must differentiate between primary energy usage and what an electrified future entails. An ICE car is 20% efficient and does not have regenerative braking. Coal power plants sit at ~30%, topping out at 40% if using supercritical steam. For example, electrified transports will increase the grid demand by ~15-30% according to most studies. Looking at heating with fossil compared to heat pumps, the difference is 1.5 - 5x depending on temperature.

Syonyk 4y ago
You didn't read my post, because I very specifically mentioned that - that one gains something from efficiency of use with some,, but not all, uses of fossil energy. The problem with heat pumps (I have one, I'm quite familiar with how they work) is that they need the most energy at the times it's hardest to come by. During spring and fall, when it's "a bit cool," they work great. As you get deeper into winter, with colder temperatures and shorter days, their efficiency is dropping off, so they use more power, when it's not available. I think mine is rated to a COP of >1 down to -15F or so, but in reality, I'm sure it's not achieving that when we have freezing fog and the coils are iced up inside 10 minutes of operation. You can't use heat pumps for most high temperature process heating, though.
- Gwypaas 4y ago
  That is missing the forest for the trees. Yes, there are scenarios where a heat pump is not optimal, but the point is not to fix it all tomorrow. It is to solve the 9X% while creating new industries enabling the last more challenging applications. What will OPEC do when the demand for their product is down 9N%?
  - Syonyk 4y ago
    Presumably, be too busy with their collapsed economy to really care what's going on elsewhere in the world. Or have moved onto generating a lot of electricity from their rather copious amounts of desert land. Also, you won't get to 9X% with our current industrial society intact. You rather rapidly run into material limits trying to extract all the resources needed to build the amount of energy collecting equipment needed. Figure out how to live on 10% of your current energy in the winter and a decent fraction of it in the summer, and the problem looks rather radically easier. Just rather radically less like a 24/7 global consumer society.
    - Gwypaas 4y ago
      What resources are the limitations? For example, this is what the USGS says about reserves figures: > Reserves data are dynamic. They may be reduced as ore is mined and (or) the feasibility of extraction diminishes, or more commonly, they may continue to increase as additional deposits (known or recently discovered) are developed, or currently exploited deposits are more thoroughly explored and (or) new technology or economic variables improve their economic feasibility. Reserves may be considered a working inventory of mining companies’ supplies of an economically extractable mineral commodity. As such, the magnitude of that inventory is necessarily limited by many considerations, including cost of drilling, taxes, price of the mineral commodity being mined, and the demand for it. Reserves will be developed to the point of business needs and geologic limitations of economic ore grade and tonnage. > For example, in 1970, identified and undiscovered world copper resources were estimated to contain 1.6 billion metric tons of copper, with reserves of about 280 million tons of copper. Since then, about 600 million tons of copper have been produced worldwide, but world copper reserves in 2021 were estimated to be 880 million tons of copper, more than triple those in 1970, despite the depletion by mining of much more than the 1970 estimated reserves. https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022-appendixes.pdf https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2022/mcs2022-appendixes... Appendix C to 2022 Lithium Statistics and Information. https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/lithium-statistics-and-information https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-c...

mardifoufs 4y ago

What a breath of fresh air this comment is. Westerners truly suffer from a terminal case of "main character syndrome." It's really a bit hard to believe the comments here, as if the west of all places hasn't been historically very keen to damage OPEC members (especially in the Middle East). But for some reason, they should still act in the west's best interests, to their own detriment for... reasons?