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That’s misleading framing. Ukraine was in the USSR with Russia. Referendum asked if they wanted to leave. Results in Crimea: 54.19% yes 45.81% no It would n

by graeme 4y ago

That’s misleading framing. Ukraine was in the USSR with Russia. Referendum asked if they wanted to leave. Results in Crimea: 54.19% yes 45.81% no It would not have been sensible to ask “would you like to join russia” as Ukraine was already part of the USSR at the time the question was asked. Now, those are obviously not strong results, but it also doesn’t immediately suggest the handover was a mistake. The split is even. My point was, to come to the framing that this was “Kruschev’s mistake” one needs some preconceived ideas about how things ought to be.

unmole 4y ago
> That’s misleading framing. Your original claim was that the independence referendum results suggested Crimea wanted to stay in Ukraine and not Russia. I agree, that framing was misleading as they were never asked that question. > Now, those are obviously not strong results, but it also doesn’t immediately suggest the handover was a mistake. The split is even. You are listing the Yes and No percentages while ignoring the low turnout. Only 37% of the electorate of Crimea and 36% of Sevestopol voted yes. The next lowest Yes vote was 64%, a clean majority. > It would not have been sensible to ask “would you like to join russia” as Ukraine was already part of the USSR at the time the question was asked. Ukraine was part of USSR, not Russia. I don't see why it would not have been sensible to ask Crimea if they wanted to join Russia. If Ukraine has the right to self determination, why doesn't Crimea? > My point was, to come to the framing that this was “Kruschev’s mistake” one needs some preconceived ideas about how things ought to be. After witnessing recent events, one could also look up the history of the region and conclude that Krushchev made a mistake. Everybody has a bias. But you are pretending your particular framing is neutral.
- graeme 4y ago
  > After witnessing recent events, one could also look up the history of the region and conclude that Krushchev made a mistake. My point is the odds of adopting this specific framing as a non-russian are minimal without contact with russian revanchist sources. My own framing surely comes from exposure to pro Ukranian sources, but that’s sort of too my point: it simply isn’t normal for an outsider to know the details of these things. “1783 until Kruschev’s mistake” is highly specific. Musk’s original tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000
somenameforme 4y ago
If you're not aware, there was an important vote in March 1991. [1] It was about joining a reforming of the USSR, the "New Union Treaty", which Crimea had already internally overwhelmingly voted to join on January 1991. Ukraine changed their whole-state version of the poll to read, "Do you agree that Ukraine should be part of a Union of Soviet sovereign states on the basis on the Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine?" It was obviously a cynical political ploy, because independence of Ukraine would be incompatible with the reforming of the USSR. But that's the context of going into the independence poll which happened in December 1991. Ukraine put Crimea into a lose/lose scenario. The only way to possibly rejoin the USSR would be to vote yes for independence. But obviously Ukraine had no intentions of rejoining the USSR, in spite of what their poll said. This is probably why so few Crimeans chose to vote. It was 41% abstain, 37% yes, 22% no. It certainly wasn't about joining Ukraine over Russia. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_Union_referendum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_Union_referendum

by graeme 4y ago

unmole 4y ago

> That’s misleading framing. Your original claim was that the independence referendum results suggested Crimea wanted to stay in Ukraine and not Russia. I agree, that framing was misleading as they were never asked that question. > Now, those are obviously not strong results, but it also doesn’t immediately suggest the handover was a mistake. The split is even. You are listing the Yes and No percentages while ignoring the low turnout. Only 37% of the electorate of Crimea and 36% of Sevestopol voted yes. The next lowest Yes vote was 64%, a clean majority. > It would not have been sensible to ask “would you like to join russia” as Ukraine was already part of the USSR at the time the question was asked. Ukraine was part of USSR, not Russia. I don't see why it would not have been sensible to ask Crimea if they wanted to join Russia. If Ukraine has the right to self determination, why doesn't Crimea? > My point was, to come to the framing that this was “Kruschev’s mistake” one needs some preconceived ideas about how things ought to be. After witnessing recent events, one could also look up the history of the region and conclude that Krushchev made a mistake. Everybody has a bias. But you are pretending your particular framing is neutral.

graeme 4y ago
> After witnessing recent events, one could also look up the history of the region and conclude that Krushchev made a mistake. My point is the odds of adopting this specific framing as a non-russian are minimal without contact with russian revanchist sources. My own framing surely comes from exposure to pro Ukranian sources, but that’s sort of too my point: it simply isn’t normal for an outsider to know the details of these things. “1783 until Kruschev’s mistake” is highly specific. Musk’s original tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000

somenameforme 4y ago

If you're not aware, there was an important vote in March 1991. [1] It was about joining a reforming of the USSR, the "New Union Treaty", which Crimea had already internally overwhelmingly voted to join on January 1991. Ukraine changed their whole-state version of the poll to read, "Do you agree that Ukraine should be part of a Union of Soviet sovereign states on the basis on the Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine?" It was obviously a cynical political ploy, because independence of Ukraine would be incompatible with the reforming of the USSR. But that's the context of going into the independence poll which happened in December 1991. Ukraine put Crimea into a lose/lose scenario. The only way to possibly rejoin the USSR would be to vote yes for independence. But obviously Ukraine had no intentions of rejoining the USSR, in spite of what their poll said. This is probably why so few Crimeans chose to vote. It was 41% abstain, 37% yes, 22% no. It certainly wasn't about joining Ukraine over Russia. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_Union_referendum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_Union_referendum