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The economics of renewables are hard to beat until night falls and the wind stops blowing, at which point the cost jumps to $infinity/MWh

olddustytrail 4y ago
If the wind stops blowing that means no new weather systems are being formed. In which case the sun must have stopped shining and the entire planet is doomed. Too late to worry about electricity in that case!
megaman821 4y ago
Another way to look at it, renewables are so cheap 100% renewable usage will be dominated by grid-scale battery cost. What is the magnitude of battery price drops that we will see over the next 10-15 years? The cheaper the batteries are the greater the incentive to build renewables.
adrianN 4y ago
The cost jumps at most to whatever it costs to make, store, and burn hydrogen.
yen223 4y ago
We are more likely to run out of fossil fuels before we run out of sunlight and wind
yodsanklai 4y ago
And also wind/solar rely on cheap fossil energy for their construction.
rstuart4133 4y ago
> The economics of renewables are hard to beat until night falls and the wind stops blowing, at which point the cost jumps to $infinity/MWh I can understand why you might think that. But there is one place on the planet that's done the renewable transition now. And it proves you wrong. Let me introduce the state of South Australia. It's an advanced OECD economy, situated at the base end of Australia so far from anywhere it has only 1 transmission line connecting to a neighbouring state, and it's renowned for going down. Unusually for Australia, South Australia also has no coal or gas, and is famous for wild storms taking down kilometres of it's 100kv power lines. It's currently running at 80% renewables: https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-hits-stunning-new-high-in-race-to-renewables-only-grid/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-hits-stunning-ne... No, the power does no go off at night. The transition was expensive. SA already had the most expensive electricity in Australia, and during the transition prices did go up for years. But at 80% the transition is almost over (although they need to build more storage), and the price of electricity in SA has been dropping. In fact it's dropped below the pre-transition price, so it's often below the rest of Australia's coal fired generation: https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-11/sa_fact_pack.pdf https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-11/sa_fact_... With that example to follow, the rest of the Australian states are gritting their teeth and following South Australia's lead. Teeth gritting is required because we are predicting a 50% jump in electricity prices, during the transition. It's already starting to bite: https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/power-bills-to-rise-by-20-per-cent-from-july-1-20230314-p5crzg https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/power-bills-to-rise-by-... . But that price hike only lasted 5 years in SA, and the light at the end of the tunnel is lower prices than we have now.

olddustytrail 4y ago

If the wind stops blowing that means no new weather systems are being formed. In which case the sun must have stopped shining and the entire planet is doomed. Too late to worry about electricity in that case!

megaman821 4y ago

Another way to look at it, renewables are so cheap 100% renewable usage will be dominated by grid-scale battery cost. What is the magnitude of battery price drops that we will see over the next 10-15 years? The cheaper the batteries are the greater the incentive to build renewables.

adrianN 4y ago

The cost jumps at most to whatever it costs to make, store, and burn hydrogen.

yen223 4y ago

We are more likely to run out of fossil fuels before we run out of sunlight and wind

yodsanklai 4y ago

And also wind/solar rely on cheap fossil energy for their construction.

rstuart4133 4y ago

> The economics of renewables are hard to beat until night falls and the wind stops blowing, at which point the cost jumps to $infinity/MWh I can understand why you might think that. But there is one place on the planet that's done the renewable transition now. And it proves you wrong. Let me introduce the state of South Australia. It's an advanced OECD economy, situated at the base end of Australia so far from anywhere it has only 1 transmission line connecting to a neighbouring state, and it's renowned for going down. Unusually for Australia, South Australia also has no coal or gas, and is famous for wild storms taking down kilometres of it's 100kv power lines. It's currently running at 80% renewables: https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-hits-stunning-new-high-in-race-to-renewables-only-grid/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-hits-stunning-ne... No, the power does no go off at night. The transition was expensive. SA already had the most expensive electricity in Australia, and during the transition prices did go up for years. But at 80% the transition is almost over (although they need to build more storage), and the price of electricity in SA has been dropping. In fact it's dropped below the pre-transition price, so it's often below the rest of Australia's coal fired generation: https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-11/sa_fact_pack.pdf https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-11/sa_fact_... With that example to follow, the rest of the Australian states are gritting their teeth and following South Australia's lead. Teeth gritting is required because we are predicting a 50% jump in electricity prices, during the transition. It's already starting to bite: https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/power-bills-to-rise-by-20-per-cent-from-july-1-20230314-p5crzg https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/power-bills-to-rise-by-... . But that price hike only lasted 5 years in SA, and the light at the end of the tunnel is lower prices than we have now.