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Either I don't understand what AGI is or openai doesn't understand what AGI is. Because of the way gpt 3,4,5 or even 1000 works it can't be possible for AGI to

Either I don't understand what AGI is or openai doesn't understand what AGI is. Because of the way gpt 3,4,5 or even 1000 works it can't be possible for AGI to be achieved. How could we say that we've got AGI when the "intelligence" is a synthesis of existing knowledge, without even ever understanding what it means? If real AGI is to be achieved it can only be through a completely different paradigm (don't ask me which) definitely not through machine learning. My opinion is that this whole machine learning thing will make achieving AGI even more difficult since most resources have switched their focus on that instead of trying to achieve real artificial intelligence (if that's even possible anyway).

beanbean01 4y ago
"OpenAI" does not believe that it will be AGI. There is an interview farther down in the thread in which Altman states that A) GPT-5 will not be AGI and B) the GPT paradigm likely has some fundamental problems which will not get it to AGI, and that if a GPT becomes AGI it is far off. Later down, Siqi clarifies several things: 1. That he believes AGI is a continuum, and encompasses most stuff that isn't a narrow system. So what he is ACTUALLY saying is "GPT-5 is not a narrow system, and is near the bottom of the AGI continuum". 2. That this is NOT a consensus belief within OpenAI, but rather one only shared by a "non-zero number". This should be a BIG RED WARNING SIGN, because it likely means that the number is very low and he is puffing it up/twisting words. 3. Seeing as he went on to actively deny that it was from someone making it up, that means that it's likely this is just his opinion and maybe a few of his friends. 4. He went on to answer the "agency" question by stating that one could attach a goal loop to it. So a prototype paperclip maximizer. Greeeeeeat. And regarding ASI ... seeing the destruction and stupidity that an overgrown autocomplete can cause, maybe, just maybe, it's a good thing if we aren't on track for that right now.
haffi112 4y ago
You may have an opinion, but can you justify why you don't believe chatGPT will achieve AGI? Existing scaling laws show that perplexity (i.e., ability to predict next tokens in text) can be lowered by increasing model size and adding more data. Why would a model that is better than us at predicting what words would occur next in arbitrary text not be an AGI?
- catchnear4321 4y ago
  > Why would a model that is better than us at predicting what words would occur next in arbitrary text not be an AGI? Because it is just predicting text at this point? Sometimes laughably poorly? Because the appearance of intelligence may only be that? Oh and the best one… Have you been paying attention to how often humans royally fuck something up within inches of the finish line? There’s a lot more to it than math. But that’s not the same as your first question. The leading one. The tweet said December. That’s a long ways off, relatively speaking. We will see.
dogma1138 4y ago
Whilst I don’t think that GPT-5 will be AGI this is a very poor reasoning. “knowing what it means” isn’t measurable and if anything lately it seems like it’s more and more a coping mechanism so we can still remain special. There is absolutely nothing currently that can prove that human intelligence isn’t just a very large LLM or that an LLM can’t model it sufficiently. Hallucinations might actually be the missing piece we humans are full of shit and come up with crazy explanations for things all the time. However we do have various methods of testing these explanations which we often call theories and hypotheses both through running dedicated experiment as well as just participating in the grander social experiment which is civilization.
- beanbean01 4y ago
  Thank you for this. This is one of the things that bugs me about the AGI debate when people argue over when/if computers will match human intelligence. Just one small problem: we don't have a working definition of human level intelligence!

beanbean01 4y ago

"OpenAI" does not believe that it will be AGI. There is an interview farther down in the thread in which Altman states that A) GPT-5 will not be AGI and B) the GPT paradigm likely has some fundamental problems which will not get it to AGI, and that if a GPT becomes AGI it is far off. Later down, Siqi clarifies several things: 1. That he believes AGI is a continuum, and encompasses most stuff that isn't a narrow system. So what he is ACTUALLY saying is "GPT-5 is not a narrow system, and is near the bottom of the AGI continuum". 2. That this is NOT a consensus belief within OpenAI, but rather one only shared by a "non-zero number". This should be a BIG RED WARNING SIGN, because it likely means that the number is very low and he is puffing it up/twisting words. 3. Seeing as he went on to actively deny that it was from someone making it up, that means that it's likely this is just his opinion and maybe a few of his friends. 4. He went on to answer the "agency" question by stating that one could attach a goal loop to it. So a prototype paperclip maximizer. Greeeeeeat. And regarding ASI ... seeing the destruction and stupidity that an overgrown autocomplete can cause, maybe, just maybe, it's a good thing if we aren't on track for that right now.

haffi112 4y ago

You may have an opinion, but can you justify why you don't believe chatGPT will achieve AGI? Existing scaling laws show that perplexity (i.e., ability to predict next tokens in text) can be lowered by increasing model size and adding more data. Why would a model that is better than us at predicting what words would occur next in arbitrary text not be an AGI?

catchnear4321 4y ago
> Why would a model that is better than us at predicting what words would occur next in arbitrary text not be an AGI? Because it is just predicting text at this point? Sometimes laughably poorly? Because the appearance of intelligence may only be that? Oh and the best one… Have you been paying attention to how often humans royally fuck something up within inches of the finish line? There’s a lot more to it than math. But that’s not the same as your first question. The leading one. The tweet said December. That’s a long ways off, relatively speaking. We will see.

dogma1138 4y ago

Whilst I don’t think that GPT-5 will be AGI this is a very poor reasoning. “knowing what it means” isn’t measurable and if anything lately it seems like it’s more and more a coping mechanism so we can still remain special. There is absolutely nothing currently that can prove that human intelligence isn’t just a very large LLM or that an LLM can’t model it sufficiently. Hallucinations might actually be the missing piece we humans are full of shit and come up with crazy explanations for things all the time. However we do have various methods of testing these explanations which we often call theories and hypotheses both through running dedicated experiment as well as just participating in the grander social experiment which is civilization.

beanbean01 4y ago
Thank you for this. This is one of the things that bugs me about the AGI debate when people argue over when/if computers will match human intelligence. Just one small problem: we don't have a working definition of human level intelligence!