4 ms·

Here are first-take conclusions I draw from the article: > The only discernible effect on female winners is that wealth increases their short-run (but not long

Here are first-take conclusions I draw from the article: > The only discernible effect on female winners is that wealth increases their short-run (but not long-run) divorce risk. Women still divorce their sucky husbands. It just takes longer. This could result in fewer kids, or it could result in kids whose homes are broken during later childhood or adolescence. Reading the actual paper, this is, in fact, the conclusion the authors come to: "In contrast, the only exception to the pattern of null results for female winners is that lottery wealth almost doubles their short-run probability of divorce. One interpretation of the absence of a discernible long-run increase in divorce risk among these women is that wealth accelerates the dissolution of marriages that were already underway." > We also report results which suggest that when married men win the lottery, the windfall has a tendency to stabilize their existing marriages Winning a lottery helps men feel secure enough that they aren't as sucky to their spouse. > lottery wins cause the largest increase in marriage rates and the biggest reduction in divorce rates among unmarried men with low incomes. So if you want stable marriages that have children the best thing to do is make people wealthier, especially those of lower income. Make men wealthier and they'll get married more and have more children. Make women wealthier and the men they stick with will be ones they like sticking with. I can't see this latter leading to fewer children, on average. I'd expect it would lead to more. Where'd you get your idea from?

watwut 4y ago
Afaik financial worries are a big reason why some women stay with abusive partners. This is gendered - many sub groups expect men to be breadwinner and women to be primary caregiver. So women are more likely to have no income for period of time or have child duties that interfere with work. Contrary what OP wrote, typical result is that women becomes poorer after divorce and men had more money. (And no, alimony are nit given out like candies). It is not only reason, but practically not having money and risking poverty or homelessness means you need to plan divorce very carefully.
gnull 4y ago
> sucky husbands It's become the standard in some companies to bitch about men and presume they're suckers and abusers is any situation that involves both sexes. Let's keep in mind that it's not science saying this, but woke ideology. > the best thing to do is make people wealthier Far-fetched. Winning a lottery makes you much wealthier relative to other people, it puts you in maybe 10-20% richest people of your country. You can't fit everyone in those 20%. Look at something like Uzbekistan. Country is miserably poor compared to Sweden and they still reproduce like they win lotteries all the time.
- ownagefool 4y ago
  There's also a bunch of womens groups where all men are the enemy. One would hope these are fringe groups, but as an example my wife is on a few that bridge into breastfeeding groups, where the women actively malign their husbands who provide their living, and do most household chores, but are still considered inept. Even in the seemingly equal marriage, it would seem the battle for equality rages on.
  - v-erne 4y ago
    >> the battle for equality rages on Lets call it for what it really is - battle for power and "freedom" to dominante others (those being husbands, wifes, coworkers - other humans in general). There seems to exists this general urge in some to search by all means necessary to make others an extension of their minds and not free and equal human beings. Just my 2 cents of intuition acquired by observing some members of my closest family :(
- anonymouskimmer 4y ago
  "Sucky" relative to whatever it is the woman (who divorces him) wants. > Winning a lottery makes you much wealthier relative to other people, it puts you in maybe 10-20% richest people of your country. You can't fit everyone in those 20%. The average lottery winnings this paper is looking at is equal to ~$140,000 USD. According to wikipedia, Credit Suisse says the median net worth of individuals in Sweden is $95k USD. And the paper says the wealth effect on Swedish males is greatest among unmarried men with low incomes. This is a one-off gain. It is not the continuous gain of a high-paying job. So this lottery win can provide immediate stability and opportunity, but it cannot, in itself, provide longevity of income gains. You are making the claim that gains relative to population are most important. While I can see this as being important in supply-limited countries, I am not sure that Sweden is such a country. > Country is miserably poor compared to Sweden and they still reproduce like they win lotteries all the time. Which is why you control for experimental factors. If you want to see what factors boost marriage rates, marriage stability, and reproduction in Uzbekistan, you want to study Uzbekistan. This study was about Sweden.
maest 4y ago
> One interpretation of the absence of a discernible long-run increase in divorce risk among these women is that wealth accelerates the dissolution of marriages that were already underway. If you're pulling in divorces from the future, shouldn't the long term rate go down? Sounds like the total divorce rate goes up. > sucky husbands That's odd framing.
- anonymouskimmer 4y ago
  > Sounds like the total divorce rate goes up. > > the absence of a discernible long-run increase in divorce risk among these women
  - maest 4y ago
    > > Sounds like the total divorce rate goes up. > > > the absence of a discernible long-run increase in divorce risk among these women > If you're pulling in divorces from the future, shouldn't the long term rate go down?
    - anonymouskimmer 4y ago
      The long-term rate appears to be level. This rate is not divorces per year, but divorces per person (or married couple). A level long-term rate with an increased short-term rate means, as said in the paper, that divorces-already-in-planning are just sped up.
      - maest 4y ago
        If it's true that divorces are being brought forward this means that couples who remain together after the e.g. 1 year mark are stronger, thus you'd expect the long term rate to go down.
        anonymouskimmer 4y ago
        I don't understand why that would be the case. With a long-term rate staying stable, either a couple is going to break up, or they're not. Pushing forward the breakups would not alter the long-term rate, just as pushing backward the breakups (as long as they're still within the window observed by the study) doesn't lower the long-term rate.
tennien 4y ago
“Men still divorce their sucky wives” is a phrase you’d be comfortable with? I’m not.

watwut 4y ago

Afaik financial worries are a big reason why some women stay with abusive partners. This is gendered - many sub groups expect men to be breadwinner and women to be primary caregiver. So women are more likely to have no income for period of time or have child duties that interfere with work. Contrary what OP wrote, typical result is that women becomes poorer after divorce and men had more money. (And no, alimony are nit given out like candies). It is not only reason, but practically not having money and risking poverty or homelessness means you need to plan divorce very carefully.

gnull 4y ago

> sucky husbands It's become the standard in some companies to bitch about men and presume they're suckers and abusers is any situation that involves both sexes. Let's keep in mind that it's not science saying this, but woke ideology. > the best thing to do is make people wealthier Far-fetched. Winning a lottery makes you much wealthier relative to other people, it puts you in maybe 10-20% richest people of your country. You can't fit everyone in those 20%. Look at something like Uzbekistan. Country is miserably poor compared to Sweden and they still reproduce like they win lotteries all the time.

ownagefool 4y ago
There's also a bunch of womens groups where all men are the enemy. One would hope these are fringe groups, but as an example my wife is on a few that bridge into breastfeeding groups, where the women actively malign their husbands who provide their living, and do most household chores, but are still considered inept. Even in the seemingly equal marriage, it would seem the battle for equality rages on.
- v-erne 4y ago
  >> the battle for equality rages on Lets call it for what it really is - battle for power and "freedom" to dominante others (those being husbands, wifes, coworkers - other humans in general). There seems to exists this general urge in some to search by all means necessary to make others an extension of their minds and not free and equal human beings. Just my 2 cents of intuition acquired by observing some members of my closest family :(
anonymouskimmer 4y ago
"Sucky" relative to whatever it is the woman (who divorces him) wants. > Winning a lottery makes you much wealthier relative to other people, it puts you in maybe 10-20% richest people of your country. You can't fit everyone in those 20%. The average lottery winnings this paper is looking at is equal to ~$140,000 USD. According to wikipedia, Credit Suisse says the median net worth of individuals in Sweden is $95k USD. And the paper says the wealth effect on Swedish males is greatest among unmarried men with low incomes. This is a one-off gain. It is not the continuous gain of a high-paying job. So this lottery win can provide immediate stability and opportunity, but it cannot, in itself, provide longevity of income gains. You are making the claim that gains relative to population are most important. While I can see this as being important in supply-limited countries, I am not sure that Sweden is such a country. > Country is miserably poor compared to Sweden and they still reproduce like they win lotteries all the time. Which is why you control for experimental factors. If you want to see what factors boost marriage rates, marriage stability, and reproduction in Uzbekistan, you want to study Uzbekistan. This study was about Sweden.

maest 4y ago

> One interpretation of the absence of a discernible long-run increase in divorce risk among these women is that wealth accelerates the dissolution of marriages that were already underway. If you're pulling in divorces from the future, shouldn't the long term rate go down? Sounds like the total divorce rate goes up. > sucky husbands That's odd framing.

anonymouskimmer 4y ago
> Sounds like the total divorce rate goes up. > > the absence of a discernible long-run increase in divorce risk among these women
- maest 4y ago
  > > Sounds like the total divorce rate goes up. > > > the absence of a discernible long-run increase in divorce risk among these women > If you're pulling in divorces from the future, shouldn't the long term rate go down?
  - anonymouskimmer 4y ago
    The long-term rate appears to be level. This rate is not divorces per year, but divorces per person (or married couple). A level long-term rate with an increased short-term rate means, as said in the paper, that divorces-already-in-planning are just sped up.
    - maest 4y ago
      If it's true that divorces are being brought forward this means that couples who remain together after the e.g. 1 year mark are stronger, thus you'd expect the long term rate to go down.
      - anonymouskimmer 4y ago
        I don't understand why that would be the case. With a long-term rate staying stable, either a couple is going to break up, or they're not. Pushing forward the breakups would not alter the long-term rate, just as pushing backward the breakups (as long as they're still within the window observed by the study) doesn't lower the long-term rate.

tennien 4y ago

“Men still divorce their sucky wives” is a phrase you’d be comfortable with? I’m not.