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My buddy at Tesla has access to the internal JIRA projects - let me just say that you're definitely not getting your Tesla Semi or Cybertruck anytime soon.

Robotbeat 4y ago
Tesla Semi is already in early release.
- HyperSane 4y ago
  Tesla is not going to be able to make many Tesla Semis per month due to the absurd number of batter cells they consume but that might not matter because they make no economic sense.
  - Robotbeat 4y ago
    That doesn’t make sense. Are you actually basing this off of numbers or just feels? It uses maybe 8 cars’ worth of cells for a Tesla Semi. Tesla makes over 1.6 million cars a year now (based on Q4 2022), so they’d be able to make 200,000 semis a year, which is close to how many new semis are sold in the us every year. As semis are driven more often and with higher payload, this is actually probably a better use of them (more fossil fuel usage displaced) than in commuter cars. As far as economic sense, it could most certainly make a ton of sense compared to diesel for consumers. But sure, Tesla would probably make more margin on cars than on Semi.
    - HyperSane 4y ago
      > they’d be able to make 200,000 semis a year But 0 other cars. > it could most certainly make a ton of sense compared to diesel for consumers Not in most cases when you factor in reduced cargo load due to the 10,000 pound battery and recharging time. You need megawatt charging to get charging time to less than an hour. You won't be able to charge many at the same time with that much current draw. You might even have to warn the power company that you are going to start charging one. https://youtu.be/o3dCDNIRM34?t=567 https://youtu.be/o3dCDNIRM34?t=567 Tesla has been very reluctant to reveal how much the truck can haul but they seem to have accidentally revealed when bragging about how fast the truck can go up hill in the video timestamp I linked to. Tesla said that a truck carrying only 11 jersey barriers on a flat bed weighs 82,000 pounds. This means that the truck is incredibly heavy.
      - Robotbeat 4y ago
        There isn’t a reduced payload, in part because electric semis are given a ton or two extra weight limit and also just the heroic efforts of the Tesla engineering team. The thunderft video you linked to makes the usual bad faith assumptions for his channel (cherry-picking numbers). 11 jersey barriers (using the typical value you can Google) is about 40,000 pounds, which is a full payload. The Megawatt charging is not a huge deal as Tesla already deploys supercharging stations with dozens of 250kW chargers (they’re started to build some with over 100 chargers, so even with shared capacity, you’d be able to charge a dozen Semis at once). With 500 miles range, you can easily hit your 13 hour daily limit with the regulation-mandated rest (while charging) at mid-day or dinner time. Neglecting the fact that not every electric truck needs to do long-haul. The short haul market alone will be plenty big enough for a while as Tesla and others ramp up.
        HyperSane 4y ago
        > There isn’t a reduced payload If a Tesla Semi carrying 11 Jersey barriers on a flatbed weighs 82,000 pounds then their absolutely is a reduced payload. There HAS to be a reduced payload because lithium ion batteries have a MUCH lower energy density by mass than diesel fuel. > The Megawatt charging is not a huge deal as Tesla already deploys supercharging stations with dozens of 250kW chargers Absolutely NONE of these can actually charge a Tesla Semi AND 250kW is 1/4 of 1000kW.
        Robotbeat 4y ago
        Do you know how much Jersey Barriers weigh? They weigh about 3600 pounds, so total weight is around 40,000 pounds, a full load for a semi. Thunderft used an unrealistically low figure, as is usual for his bad faith debunking videos. There’s nothing particularly difficult about 1MW charging, there are already standards for this. (Tesla is part of the standards body, and they’ll either use the standard themselves or improve and adapt it to their purposes like they did with Chademo…) Tesla Semi prototypes in the past have used multiple 250kW connections. This is not some big gotcha, and honestly thinking there’s something impossible about 1MW just shows ignorance of the state of vehicle electrification. Your concern about grid connection literally is addressed by pointing out existing Tesla supercharging stations provide far greater aggregate power already.
  - cypress66 4y ago
    It uses at most 10 cars worth of batteries. They make 400k cars a quarter. Making 4k semis a quarter would demand 10% extra batteries for them, which is very feasible, and I'm not taking into account all the batteries they use for Megapacks. Finally, there's no way they'll be able to make or sell 4k semis any time soon, even if they had infinite batteries. So I wouldn't worry about battery bottlenecks.
elkos 4y ago
Well do you have any more details to share?
clnq 4y ago
Wow, the buddy/uncle/friend of a friend with very vague but scandalously phrased corporate secrets strikes again!
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
dzhiurgis 4y ago
Hard to believe Tesla would use JIRA
- dogma1138 4y ago
  https://extissues.teslamotors.com https://extissues.teslamotors.com
Fatnino 4y ago
I randomly saw one crossing the San Mateo Bridge. They definitely exist on the roads already. Of course, the one I saw was done up in Lays colors so it could just be one of the 5-6 they had already built when it was unveiled.

Robotbeat 4y ago

Tesla Semi is already in early release.

HyperSane 4y ago
Tesla is not going to be able to make many Tesla Semis per month due to the absurd number of batter cells they consume but that might not matter because they make no economic sense.
- Robotbeat 4y ago
  That doesn’t make sense. Are you actually basing this off of numbers or just feels? It uses maybe 8 cars’ worth of cells for a Tesla Semi. Tesla makes over 1.6 million cars a year now (based on Q4 2022), so they’d be able to make 200,000 semis a year, which is close to how many new semis are sold in the us every year. As semis are driven more often and with higher payload, this is actually probably a better use of them (more fossil fuel usage displaced) than in commuter cars. As far as economic sense, it could most certainly make a ton of sense compared to diesel for consumers. But sure, Tesla would probably make more margin on cars than on Semi.
  - HyperSane 4y ago
    > they’d be able to make 200,000 semis a year But 0 other cars. > it could most certainly make a ton of sense compared to diesel for consumers Not in most cases when you factor in reduced cargo load due to the 10,000 pound battery and recharging time. You need megawatt charging to get charging time to less than an hour. You won't be able to charge many at the same time with that much current draw. You might even have to warn the power company that you are going to start charging one. https://youtu.be/o3dCDNIRM34?t=567 https://youtu.be/o3dCDNIRM34?t=567 Tesla has been very reluctant to reveal how much the truck can haul but they seem to have accidentally revealed when bragging about how fast the truck can go up hill in the video timestamp I linked to. Tesla said that a truck carrying only 11 jersey barriers on a flat bed weighs 82,000 pounds. This means that the truck is incredibly heavy.
    - Robotbeat 4y ago
      There isn’t a reduced payload, in part because electric semis are given a ton or two extra weight limit and also just the heroic efforts of the Tesla engineering team. The thunderft video you linked to makes the usual bad faith assumptions for his channel (cherry-picking numbers). 11 jersey barriers (using the typical value you can Google) is about 40,000 pounds, which is a full payload. The Megawatt charging is not a huge deal as Tesla already deploys supercharging stations with dozens of 250kW chargers (they’re started to build some with over 100 chargers, so even with shared capacity, you’d be able to charge a dozen Semis at once). With 500 miles range, you can easily hit your 13 hour daily limit with the regulation-mandated rest (while charging) at mid-day or dinner time. Neglecting the fact that not every electric truck needs to do long-haul. The short haul market alone will be plenty big enough for a while as Tesla and others ramp up.
      - HyperSane 4y ago
        > There isn’t a reduced payload If a Tesla Semi carrying 11 Jersey barriers on a flatbed weighs 82,000 pounds then their absolutely is a reduced payload. There HAS to be a reduced payload because lithium ion batteries have a MUCH lower energy density by mass than diesel fuel. > The Megawatt charging is not a huge deal as Tesla already deploys supercharging stations with dozens of 250kW chargers Absolutely NONE of these can actually charge a Tesla Semi AND 250kW is 1/4 of 1000kW.
        Robotbeat 4y ago
        Do you know how much Jersey Barriers weigh? They weigh about 3600 pounds, so total weight is around 40,000 pounds, a full load for a semi. Thunderft used an unrealistically low figure, as is usual for his bad faith debunking videos. There’s nothing particularly difficult about 1MW charging, there are already standards for this. (Tesla is part of the standards body, and they’ll either use the standard themselves or improve and adapt it to their purposes like they did with Chademo…) Tesla Semi prototypes in the past have used multiple 250kW connections. This is not some big gotcha, and honestly thinking there’s something impossible about 1MW just shows ignorance of the state of vehicle electrification. Your concern about grid connection literally is addressed by pointing out existing Tesla supercharging stations provide far greater aggregate power already.
- cypress66 4y ago
  It uses at most 10 cars worth of batteries. They make 400k cars a quarter. Making 4k semis a quarter would demand 10% extra batteries for them, which is very feasible, and I'm not taking into account all the batteries they use for Megapacks. Finally, there's no way they'll be able to make or sell 4k semis any time soon, even if they had infinite batteries. So I wouldn't worry about battery bottlenecks.

elkos 4y ago

Well do you have any more details to share?

clnq 4y ago

Wow, the buddy/uncle/friend of a friend with very vague but scandalously phrased corporate secrets strikes again!

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

dzhiurgis 4y ago

Hard to believe Tesla would use JIRA

dogma1138 4y ago
https://extissues.teslamotors.com https://extissues.teslamotors.com

Fatnino 4y ago

I randomly saw one crossing the San Mateo Bridge. They definitely exist on the roads already. Of course, the one I saw was done up in Lays colors so it could just be one of the 5-6 they had already built when it was unveiled.