I feel assured that the transition is going to be pretty quick, watching Waymos and Cruises going around SF and dealing with some challenging traffic situations

I feel assured that the transition is going to be pretty quick, watching Waymos and Cruises going around SF and dealing with some challenging traffic situations and weather(Waymo is definitely better at not getting stuck, but the gap is not insurmountable). As soon as they proliferate at scale, the risk profile changes such that you can bike everywhere safely, and parking is no longer a major urban issue, because the fleet is going to have a more flexible usage pattern whether or not individuals own the vehicles: instead of one space per vehicle per destination, it's going to be compressed down to parking space for the neighborhood plus drop-off zones. So to me, it's obvious that the market is going at the problem just about as fast as it can, and once the adoption S-curve hits, "need to drive" relaxes because other potential uses aren't being suppressed. You'll still have many instances where mass transit and active transit present a lower cost structure than taxi, and they'll have a lot of leeway to grow.