3 ms·
Bayes' theorem is ruthless. Even if your AI is 99.99% accurate, if you have one true positive and scan everybody the vast majority of the people you flag will b
by Aransentin 4y ago
Bayes' theorem is ruthless. Even if your AI is 99.99% accurate, if you have one true positive and scan everybody the vast majority of the people you flag will be perfectly innocent. The people deploying the system and police are ignorant of the statistics and base rates, thinks that it's only 0.001% likely you are innocent, and chuck you in jail because of it.
- sseagull 4y agoAhh the the Base Rate Fallacy - always something to keep in mind. A lot of people fall for that one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy
- TomK32 4y agoI do wonder if the AI did stop after a 99,9% match or tried the whole database and there were actually a dozen 99,9n% and 99,8% matches. That meta information should be also shown to the officers requesting a search.