5 ms·

He's probably ignoring the externalities like the gas leaks on the way to your house or the power plant being able to have a huge scrubber that reduces emission

He's probably ignoring the externalities like the gas leaks on the way to your house or the power plant being able to have a huge scrubber that reduces emissions compared to what you can have at your house. The most important reason is there was probably a financial incentive from the manufacturer of the gas/oil furnace that made it more profitable for him to sell you that. Here we have such a massive state rebate on heat pumps, you have to literally have a lot of money and politics that equate to having your head up your backside to get a new gas/oil furnace. It's larger than an EV rebate and a much higher % of the total cost so you'd have to have a really good reason to stick with fossil fuels.

jtchang 4y ago
What state?
the_third_wave 4y ago
> He's probably ignoring the externalities like the gas leaks on the way to your house Where I live (Sweden) and come from (the Netherlands) gas leaks tend to get fixed since they are both costly as well as dangerous. Let's assume that this is not a real issue unless you have some data which points out the opposite. > the power plant being able to have a huge scrubber that reduces emissions We're not talking about heating a house using coal - which is where those scrubbers come in - but with gas. Gas fired power plants do not need scrubbers since they do not produce fly ash or sulphurous oxides, nor do gas-fired heaters. Total systems efficiency for a single-cycle gas-fired power plant lies between 32% to 38% for simple cycle gas turbines, most of those in the USA are closer to the first number. Combined cycle gas/steam turbines can run at up to 60% total efficiency which is about as high as it is possible to get using a thermal power generator [1]. The efficiency of gas-fired heaters lies somewhere between 70% and 95% or more, the upper range is common here in Europe. A good indicator for the efficiency is the fact that these appliances often use plastic flue pipes which is made possible by the fact that flue gas temperatures lie below 70°C. The effective COP for air/air heat pumps is highly dependent on the temperature difference between the hot and cold side, the colder it is outside the lower the efficiency. I don't know where the original poster lives so it is hard to calculate the expected efficiency. If it is anywhere where the temperature goes down below zero (Celcius) it is more than likely that the salesman was right since the effective COP ends up below 2 - and goes down to 1 or lower around -15°C to -30°C (depending on the model heat pump used, the amount of moisture in the air (moist air condenses and freezes on the evaporator which requires a thaw cycle which markedly lowers the efficiency). [1] https://www.brighthubengineering.com/power-plants/72369-compare-the-efficiency-of-different-power-plants/ https://www.brighthubengineering.com/power-plants/72369-comp...
- fancy_pantser 4y ago
  > Let's assume that this is not a real issue unless you have some data which points out the opposite. US-wide estimates are 1.4% and recent studies suggest as high as 9% in tested areas. https://news.stanford.edu/2022/03/24/methane-leaks-much-worse-estimates-fix-available/ https://news.stanford.edu/2022/03/24/methane-leaks-much-wors...
  - the_third_wave 4y ago
    OK, those are production leaks, not transport leaks. I don't know how high production leaks are here in Europe but I assume them to be lower due to stringent rules. There is also quite a bit of natural methane leakage from swamps, wetlands and other similar sources as well as from agriculture. ESA has a satellite which can measure this [1], it shows methane leakage from landfills can also be quite large [2]. [1] https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Copernicus/Sentinel-5P/Mapping_high-resolution_methane_emissions_from_space https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Coperni... [2] https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Satellites_detect_large_methane_emissions_from_Madrid_landfills https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Satelli...
    - pinkorchid 4y ago
      All those leaks contribute to the externalities of natural gas. I don't know the relative contributions between extraction and distribution, but leaks in the distribution network are also a problem in Europe [1]. It's certainly true that extraction leaks can be so substantial as to make shale gas worse than coal [2] (twice worse over 20 years!). Landfills (and agriculture) are big sources of methane. I think this is a pretty good start to figure out what the EU is doing to reduce all sources [3]. [1] https://www.uu.nl/en/publication/scientists-discover-more-methane-leakages-in-utrechts-gas-distribution-network https://www.uu.nl/en/publication/scientists-discover-more-me... [2] https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0061-5 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0061-5 [3] https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/12/19/member-states-agree-on-new-rules-to-slash-methane-emissions/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022...
itake 4y ago
> you'd have to have a really good reason to stick with fossil fuels In Seattle, people lost power during a snow storm for days. As much as I hate burning fossil fuels, what are my options if the power company takes 3+ days to bring back power during 32ºF below temperatures? My home has a fireplace, but that only heats the living room.
- mikepavone 4y ago
  I don't think I've ever lived in a house with fossil fuel heat that worked without electricity. Hot water, sure, but not heat. Typically the thermostat itself is at least partly electrical and beyond that you need electricity to power the blower motor for forced air or a circulation pump for hot water heat.
  - Mavvie 4y ago
    Not exactly fossil fuel heat, but recently I was staying at a place that had a wood burning furnace which is explicitly designed to work even if the power goes out. The hot air naturally rises and pressurizes the vents slightly, and the only constraint is you have to set the damper in a way that keeps the fire small/cool. I don't think it would be possible with natural gas or anything like that, as you really do need a thermostat...I assume a continuous burn without the blower is not something they're designed for.
- dgacmu 4y ago
  All modern furnaces and boilers need electricity too. The only advantage that they have is that it's a bit more possible to run them for a while on battery backup, but for three days you need a generator.
- m463 4y ago
  that's why most of those "whole house" generators take natural gas. what's interesting is that when looking at solar recently, it turns out that solar generates LOTS more power when it's cold out. obviously when panels are not covered by snow. Actually snow on the ground could reflect more light to the panels too.
NotYourLawyer 4y ago
The gas lines are gonna leak whether you use them or not.
- m463 4y ago
  The methane itself leaks out of the ground...

jtchang 4y ago

What state?

the_third_wave 4y ago

> He's probably ignoring the externalities like the gas leaks on the way to your house Where I live (Sweden) and come from (the Netherlands) gas leaks tend to get fixed since they are both costly as well as dangerous. Let's assume that this is not a real issue unless you have some data which points out the opposite. > the power plant being able to have a huge scrubber that reduces emissions We're not talking about heating a house using coal - which is where those scrubbers come in - but with gas. Gas fired power plants do not need scrubbers since they do not produce fly ash or sulphurous oxides, nor do gas-fired heaters. Total systems efficiency for a single-cycle gas-fired power plant lies between 32% to 38% for simple cycle gas turbines, most of those in the USA are closer to the first number. Combined cycle gas/steam turbines can run at up to 60% total efficiency which is about as high as it is possible to get using a thermal power generator [1]. The efficiency of gas-fired heaters lies somewhere between 70% and 95% or more, the upper range is common here in Europe. A good indicator for the efficiency is the fact that these appliances often use plastic flue pipes which is made possible by the fact that flue gas temperatures lie below 70°C. The effective COP for air/air heat pumps is highly dependent on the temperature difference between the hot and cold side, the colder it is outside the lower the efficiency. I don't know where the original poster lives so it is hard to calculate the expected efficiency. If it is anywhere where the temperature goes down below zero (Celcius) it is more than likely that the salesman was right since the effective COP ends up below 2 - and goes down to 1 or lower around -15°C to -30°C (depending on the model heat pump used, the amount of moisture in the air (moist air condenses and freezes on the evaporator which requires a thaw cycle which markedly lowers the efficiency). [1] https://www.brighthubengineering.com/power-plants/72369-compare-the-efficiency-of-different-power-plants/ https://www.brighthubengineering.com/power-plants/72369-comp...

fancy_pantser 4y ago
> Let's assume that this is not a real issue unless you have some data which points out the opposite. US-wide estimates are 1.4% and recent studies suggest as high as 9% in tested areas. https://news.stanford.edu/2022/03/24/methane-leaks-much-worse-estimates-fix-available/ https://news.stanford.edu/2022/03/24/methane-leaks-much-wors...
- the_third_wave 4y ago
  OK, those are production leaks, not transport leaks. I don't know how high production leaks are here in Europe but I assume them to be lower due to stringent rules. There is also quite a bit of natural methane leakage from swamps, wetlands and other similar sources as well as from agriculture. ESA has a satellite which can measure this [1], it shows methane leakage from landfills can also be quite large [2]. [1] https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Copernicus/Sentinel-5P/Mapping_high-resolution_methane_emissions_from_space https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Coperni... [2] https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Satellites_detect_large_methane_emissions_from_Madrid_landfills https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Satelli...
  - pinkorchid 4y ago
    All those leaks contribute to the externalities of natural gas. I don't know the relative contributions between extraction and distribution, but leaks in the distribution network are also a problem in Europe [1]. It's certainly true that extraction leaks can be so substantial as to make shale gas worse than coal [2] (twice worse over 20 years!). Landfills (and agriculture) are big sources of methane. I think this is a pretty good start to figure out what the EU is doing to reduce all sources [3]. [1] https://www.uu.nl/en/publication/scientists-discover-more-methane-leakages-in-utrechts-gas-distribution-network https://www.uu.nl/en/publication/scientists-discover-more-me... [2] https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0061-5 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0061-5 [3] https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/12/19/member-states-agree-on-new-rules-to-slash-methane-emissions/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022...

itake 4y ago

> you'd have to have a really good reason to stick with fossil fuels In Seattle, people lost power during a snow storm for days. As much as I hate burning fossil fuels, what are my options if the power company takes 3+ days to bring back power during 32ºF below temperatures? My home has a fireplace, but that only heats the living room.

mikepavone 4y ago
I don't think I've ever lived in a house with fossil fuel heat that worked without electricity. Hot water, sure, but not heat. Typically the thermostat itself is at least partly electrical and beyond that you need electricity to power the blower motor for forced air or a circulation pump for hot water heat.
- Mavvie 4y ago
  Not exactly fossil fuel heat, but recently I was staying at a place that had a wood burning furnace which is explicitly designed to work even if the power goes out. The hot air naturally rises and pressurizes the vents slightly, and the only constraint is you have to set the damper in a way that keeps the fire small/cool. I don't think it would be possible with natural gas or anything like that, as you really do need a thermostat...I assume a continuous burn without the blower is not something they're designed for.
dgacmu 4y ago
All modern furnaces and boilers need electricity too. The only advantage that they have is that it's a bit more possible to run them for a while on battery backup, but for three days you need a generator.
m463 4y ago
that's why most of those "whole house" generators take natural gas. what's interesting is that when looking at solar recently, it turns out that solar generates LOTS more power when it's cold out. obviously when panels are not covered by snow. Actually snow on the ground could reflect more light to the panels too.

NotYourLawyer 4y ago

The gas lines are gonna leak whether you use them or not.

m463 4y ago
The methane itself leaks out of the ground...