3 ms·
There will be no AGI during our lifetime. It seems weird to me that people that should understand how ML works (e.g. sama) instead of educating laypeople abou
by Manjuuu 4y ago
There will be no AGI during our lifetime.
It seems weird to me that people that should understand how ML works (e.g. sama) instead of educating laypeople about about how this actually works and the huge limits the technology has, start talking nonsense about AGIs like some random scifi fan at a convention. Depressing.
- AbrahamParangi 4y agoI'll take the other side of that bet
- brotchie 4y ago+1
- Manjuuu 4y agoFeel free to do so, we need something to replace crypto after all. And also, sometime I wonder how many people hold those kind of opinions on AGI(imminent, doable, worthy of being discussed) because they sincerely believe in some nonsense like the basilisk thing for example.
- bheadmaster 4y agoI don't believe in Basilisk because of the time-travel bullshit, but I do believe that AGI will come soon, because I don't believe in divine soul and see human mind as just a very complex statistics machine and all human learning as just detecting correlation between sensory input through time.
- HDThoreaun 4y agoI believe in AGI because I'm a materialist so see no reason why we couldn't create artificial brains.
- arcastroe 4y agoHeh, @Manjuuu winning this bet would imply both of your deaths ...
- karmasimida 4y agoHow can you speak with such confidence, when Hinton and Ilya Sutskever can not? Hinton even said it is possible in next 5-10 years. While, you can believe whatever you believe, please don't bash people as laypeople or something as nonsense.
- Manjuuu 4y agoThe same confidence of those already planning for the advent, that will never be, of AGI. I see a lot of unmotivated enthusiasm for the "new" thing, the opinions of Hinton should be considered valid if the reasoning makes sense, not just because the source is Hinton. No idea why he said that it's possible in 10 years. Not trying to bash anyone, I just meant normal people, outside of the field. Enthusiastic nonsense is still nonsense.
- 93po 4y agoTo say we won't have AGI in our lifetime as a certainty means that you must be able to say with a certainty how AGI is developed. Otherwise there is no evidence to point to as to why the steps towards developing it aren't possible.
- Workaccount2 4y agoWe have these guys calling themselves "experts on intelligence" just because they know the structure of the components of the neural net. It's like neurologists saying they are experts in consciousness because they know how neurons function and grow. Thankfully doctors don't have nearly the same levels of hubris as tech bros.
- Manjuuu 4y agoExactly.
- YeGoblynQueenne 4y ago>> No idea why he said that it's possible in 10 years. It's because he's been saying that for 40 years.