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This is FUD bullshit from a company that will probably be extinct in a decade because they dragged their feet on EVs. Here's the current economic reality of ba
by AtlasBarfed 4y ago
This is FUD bullshit from a company that will probably be extinct in a decade because they dragged their feet on EVs.
Here's the current economic reality of batteries and EVs:
LFP at 200 wh/kg is in mass produciton now, and 230 wh/kg is on the roadmap in 1-2 years. That is a 400 mile range car (because LFP has superior pack density) with no cobalt/nickel.
Sodium Ion at 150 wh/kg is in mass production now, and 180-200 is on the roadmap. THAT is a 300+ mile range car with NO LITHIUM. Expected bill of materials will be $40/kilowatt-hour (not sure if that is cell or pack) once they get production really scaled.
These achievements are the true revolution in transportation electrification. And with Lithium-Sulfur and Sodium-Sulfur chems in the wings, it's likely that in ten years there is a battery with 2-3x the density with no cobalt, nickel, or lithium needed.
ICE drivetrains will be fundamentally economically noncompetitive. Too many parts, too much complexity. An electric car will be a motor or two and a sodium ion / sodium sulfur battery, and maybe half the cost of the stuff that actually moves the car. Quieter, smoother, faster accelerating, charge at home, etc.
Since the BMW CEO was canned over sqandering their electrification "lead", all CEOs have been on notice that you have a path to EVs ready or you get shitcanned by the board/investors.
All the CEOs from companies that didn't have any plans around this are playing defense. And at this point, the ship has left the port, and you either were on it or probably won't catch up and will either die in bankruptcy or acquired for peanuts.
This is because the main phase of EVs will be vertically integrated production like Tesla has. The OEM model of ICEs is probably a solid 20 years away, and the companies that don't have vertical integration plans in active development (you own battery plants to help guarantee supply in particular) are simply not going to survive until a new OEM model appears for EVs.
The OEM model, for those that don't know it, is that ICE car makers are largely component integrators from a large umbrella of parts producers. Many of these OEMs sell / partner with many manufacturers.
EVs won't be like that. The drivetrain doesn't have a rich array of dozens of OEM companies vying to produce components for your next platform/car. You have to design your own motor, battery pack, and directly invest in your own battery supply (the battery being the most expensive part) to get an economical battary pack for the EV.
If you don't have your own vertically integrated battery supply, the company won't have reliable supply (since EVERYONE will want batteries) and you won't get it at competitive cost.
- dzhiurgis 4y ago> dragged their feet on EVs. They are third after BYD and Tesla. Likely to overtake Tesla in a year or two.