I think the fact that LLMs are basically fixed models (plus some RLHF and a tiny context window) means they won't likely foom in their current form, but we're t

I think the fact that LLMs are basically fixed models (plus some RLHF and a tiny context window) means they won't likely foom in their current form, but we're trying to change that. Meanwhile, a whole bunch of ML researchers are saying "hey, our field is getting dangerous and we don't know how to keep it safe". I'm verrrry skeptical of governmental regulation here, but I'm also not willing to dismiss the experts shouting "our work is might quickly lead to disaster!" AI is advancing very rapidly. Yes, people were wrong about 3D TVs, but they were also wrong about the growth of solar power in the other direction, repeatedly under-estimating its rate of improvement/adoption year after year[0]. It'd consider that a much better comparison: it's not a single "3D will replace 2D", but "solar power will rapidly iterate to be better and cheaper faster than expected". Well, AI is rapidly iterating to be better and cheaper faster than expected. (To be fair, only some AI; LLMs and image generation.) > People are already plugging ChatGPT to anything from code to managing investments, it's just a matter of time until it crashes and burns It's not X-risk, but it's worth asking whether just ChatGPT crashes and burns, or also the market it's being plugged into. > As for OpenAI, it's in their best interest for people to be scared and governments to propose regulations. It further solidifies ChatGPT as a force to be reckoned with, even if it isn't. They're trying to sell it as AGI even though it isn't anywhere near, but actions like this are helping to maintain that image. No one (or very few) think ChatGPT is an AGI, and anyone who expresses high confidence about how close it is, regardless of whether they say "very close" or "very far" is over-confident. There's widespread disagreement among the people best positioned to know. We don't know, and that's bad. [0] https://www.vox.com/2015/10/12/9510879/iea-underestimate-renewables https://www.vox.com/2015/10/12/9510879/iea-underestimate-ren...