What you are describing is the probability heuristic. That is mathematically correct. But what wasn't correct is that from this fact you can deduce that "the cy

What you are describing is the probability heuristic. That is mathematically correct. But what wasn't correct is that from this fact you can deduce that "the cycle length is unlimited (but always finite)". The whole point of the conjecture is to prove that only the trivial cycle exists. If you can deduce that the cycle length is finite but large, you've already disproven the conjecture. Sorry for being terse in my original comment. I should have elaborated.