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I think it's a mistake to evaluate his success with it in purely financial terms like that. He's proven himself thin skinned, egotistical, and capricious, and

I think it's a mistake to evaluate his success with it in purely financial terms like that. He's proven himself thin skinned, egotistical, and capricious, and is easy to provoke into vindictive & retributive actions even if not in his best interests. I think a big part of why he bought twitter was a sense of grievance, basically that the wrong people were getting positive attention, that people were being mean to and making fun of him and his friends & allies. He wanted to restructure the mechanics and incentives of the platform to better support the people and outcomes he values. I'm not sure whether he succeeded by these terms either, it's still too early to tell I think. But I do think it's an important factor in evaluating whether he succeeded in what he set out to do when buying twitter. And from that perspective "make it good or (let it) die trying" may be an acceptable compromise. He doesn't get the musk-adoration platform he wants, but at least there is no longer the musk-ridicule platform he perceived it to be.

JohnFen 4y ago
Remember, he didn't want to buy Twitter. He pitched it in the first place purely in an attempt to get leverage over the board. He didn't really want to own it. The board called his bluff and said "sold!", then Musk spent a great deal of time and effort trying to wiggle out of the deal. He failed, and now he's stuck with it. Everything he's doing now is trying to minimize the amount of financial damage this debacle will cause him.
- pkulak 4y ago
  I think he did want to buy it, but then later thought that decision through a bit, or had it thought through for him, and realized his mistake. You're giving him too much credit.
  - myko 4y ago
    It does seem like he was not in the right state of mind when he decided to buy for $54.20/share
- giraffe_lady 4y ago
  I still think my analysis holds. Why did he want leverage over the board? For the grievance-based reason I pointed to. He didn't want to follow through with it, but once forced, why would he not continue to act based on that driver and similar petty impulsiveness we now know he experiences? It's true though that if it loses a bucket of money and he never wanted it in the first place he might not consider it as successful as I'm guessing. We can't know his mind, but thinking of it in this way explains a lot of his behavior around twitter that is difficult or impossible to explain from a pure financial standpoint, so I'm going to stick with it for now.
- cutemonster 4y ago
  Are you sure he didn't actually want to but it, before it turned out there are so many bots? In any case, I suspect that the GP comment by giraffe_lady, explains why he was interested in Twitter at all -- why bothering trying to get leverage over the board. Or, if he wants to eventually become the President of the US, then that's an alternative explanation (of why he cared)?
  - periphrasis 4y ago
    > Or, if he wants to eventually become the President of the US, then that's an alternative explanation (of why he cared)? That would require a constitutional amendment in order for him to be eligible. He’s revealed himself to be pretty dumb, but even I give him enough credit to not be so stupid as to think he will one day he President.
    - giraffe_lady 4y ago
      He's not broadly stupid. He does seem to have the very specific failure to believe that rules or consequences apply to him. He's correct about this a lot of the time, and it's probably the source of a good deal of his success. I think he's capable of believing he could be president some day.
  - JohnFen 4y ago
    > Are you sure he didn't actually want to but it, before it turned out there are so many bots? There's very little doubt in my mind. The bot thing was always just rhetorical. he didn't suddenly "discover" something he wasn't already well aware of.
  - jayd16 4y ago
    Elon will never be president. Only in part because he is not a US born citizen.
    - cutemonster 4y ago
      Ok he's from South Africa
- actionablefiber 4y ago
  > Remember, he didn't want to buy Twitter. He pitched it in the first place purely in an attempt to get leverage over the board. He didn't really want to own it. He didn't just "pitch" it, he made a buyout offer with all the attendant SEC filings. Not the sort of thing you can accidentally do with a slip of the tongue!
  - rurp 4y ago
    Given everything he has said and done about Twitter, I think it's pretty clear he has no idea how contracts work and is very bitter about ever having to follow them.
    - QuarterReptile 4y ago
      >I think it's pretty clear he has no idea how contracts work Is this really a good assumption for a guy who has started so many successful companies?
      - officeplant 4y ago
        >started so many successful companies The only companies he actually founded was SpaceX, and Boring if that even counts.
      - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
        Given how hard he fought against buying it even after he signed the paperwork to buy it I think we're forced to say "Yes".
      - rurp 4y ago
        He's hardly the first person to get rich flouting the law. Plus it's not at all clear how much credit he should get for the companies he invested in, aside from being a good fundraiser and hype man. There are plenty of stories about employees having to manage him to avoid him stepping on critical work.
      - mikestew 4y ago
jkern 4y ago
Bit of a Pyrrhic victory isn't it?
SkyMarshal 4y ago
I don't think he would be ok losing $40billion+ and with only some assuaged grievances to show for it. He's not that tempermental. He's got a business idea for Twitter, which is to turn it into "X", the everything app he originally wanted Paypal to be 20yrs ago. Basically a US version of WeChat. But it will be a steep climb from here, with a skeleton engineering crew that needs to both maintain current Twitter and build new X, and the debt service draining money and constraining hiring.

JohnFen 4y ago

Remember, he didn't want to buy Twitter. He pitched it in the first place purely in an attempt to get leverage over the board. He didn't really want to own it. The board called his bluff and said "sold!", then Musk spent a great deal of time and effort trying to wiggle out of the deal. He failed, and now he's stuck with it. Everything he's doing now is trying to minimize the amount of financial damage this debacle will cause him.

pkulak 4y ago
I think he did want to buy it, but then later thought that decision through a bit, or had it thought through for him, and realized his mistake. You're giving him too much credit.
- myko 4y ago
  It does seem like he was not in the right state of mind when he decided to buy for $54.20/share
giraffe_lady 4y ago
I still think my analysis holds. Why did he want leverage over the board? For the grievance-based reason I pointed to. He didn't want to follow through with it, but once forced, why would he not continue to act based on that driver and similar petty impulsiveness we now know he experiences? It's true though that if it loses a bucket of money and he never wanted it in the first place he might not consider it as successful as I'm guessing. We can't know his mind, but thinking of it in this way explains a lot of his behavior around twitter that is difficult or impossible to explain from a pure financial standpoint, so I'm going to stick with it for now.
cutemonster 4y ago
Are you sure he didn't actually want to but it, before it turned out there are so many bots? In any case, I suspect that the GP comment by giraffe_lady, explains why he was interested in Twitter at all -- why bothering trying to get leverage over the board. Or, if he wants to eventually become the President of the US, then that's an alternative explanation (of why he cared)?
- periphrasis 4y ago
  > Or, if he wants to eventually become the President of the US, then that's an alternative explanation (of why he cared)? That would require a constitutional amendment in order for him to be eligible. He’s revealed himself to be pretty dumb, but even I give him enough credit to not be so stupid as to think he will one day he President.
  - giraffe_lady 4y ago
    He's not broadly stupid. He does seem to have the very specific failure to believe that rules or consequences apply to him. He's correct about this a lot of the time, and it's probably the source of a good deal of his success. I think he's capable of believing he could be president some day.
- JohnFen 4y ago
  > Are you sure he didn't actually want to but it, before it turned out there are so many bots? There's very little doubt in my mind. The bot thing was always just rhetorical. he didn't suddenly "discover" something he wasn't already well aware of.
- jayd16 4y ago
  Elon will never be president. Only in part because he is not a US born citizen.
  - cutemonster 4y ago
    Ok he's from South Africa
actionablefiber 4y ago
> Remember, he didn't want to buy Twitter. He pitched it in the first place purely in an attempt to get leverage over the board. He didn't really want to own it. He didn't just "pitch" it, he made a buyout offer with all the attendant SEC filings. Not the sort of thing you can accidentally do with a slip of the tongue!
- rurp 4y ago
  Given everything he has said and done about Twitter, I think it's pretty clear he has no idea how contracts work and is very bitter about ever having to follow them.
  - QuarterReptile 4y ago
    >I think it's pretty clear he has no idea how contracts work Is this really a good assumption for a guy who has started so many successful companies?
    - officeplant 4y ago
      >started so many successful companies The only companies he actually founded was SpaceX, and Boring if that even counts.
    - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
      Given how hard he fought against buying it even after he signed the paperwork to buy it I think we're forced to say "Yes".
    - rurp 4y ago
      He's hardly the first person to get rich flouting the law. Plus it's not at all clear how much credit he should get for the companies he invested in, aside from being a good fundraiser and hype man. There are plenty of stories about employees having to manage him to avoid him stepping on critical work.
    - mikestew 4y ago

jkern 4y ago

Bit of a Pyrrhic victory isn't it?

SkyMarshal 4y ago

I don't think he would be ok losing $40billion+ and with only some assuaged grievances to show for it. He's not that tempermental. He's got a business idea for Twitter, which is to turn it into "X", the everything app he originally wanted Paypal to be 20yrs ago. Basically a US version of WeChat. But it will be a steep climb from here, with a skeleton engineering crew that needs to both maintain current Twitter and build new X, and the debt service draining money and constraining hiring.