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> to meaningfully replace engineers When engineers are producing any significant increase in productivity by use of any tool, this tool is statistically replac

> to meaningfully replace engineers When engineers are producing any significant increase in productivity by use of any tool, this tool is statistically replacing engineers. And, with what is currently happening in AI (going by the self reported numbers that I picked up) the former seems to be true to a wild degree.

jeremyjh 4y ago
Yes and this is true of most use-cases of ChatGPT. It makes experts more productive but it cannot reliably produce expert quality work in the hands of a non-expert.
travisjungroth 4y ago
Not always. Compilers didn't replace programmers. An increase in supply can cause a drop in price that causes an increase in demand: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand
- danpalmer 4y ago
  Exactly. Better auto-complete didn't either, and I think we're still very much in the category of better auto-complete, rather than writing complete software from scratch.
- coldtea 4y ago
  In this case we were already in a decreased demand phase, due to lack of money in the economy. And unlike the era of the arrival of compilers, we're not in an rapidly-expanging-computer-market stage either. Only the "replace programmers with AI" segments are growing.
  - quonn 4y ago
    How are they growing? Nobody is replacing anyone so far. And a short term business cycle is not very relevant either. By the time practical tools are read the cycle may have inverted.
    - coldtea 4y ago
      >How are they growing? Increasingly more tools aimed at that are produced, and they are increasingly adopted. From CoPilot to specialized tools for end users to do what programmers (and other jobs like graphic designers) did for them. >And a short term business cycle is not very relevant either. By the time practical tools are read the cycle may have inverted. Who said it's short term?
      - travisjungroth 4y ago
        You commented about phases, stages, and lack of money in the economy. Sounds like short term cycles.
        coldtea 4y ago
        Phases, stages and lack of money are not synonymous with short term.
        quonn 4y ago
        Yes they are. It‘s called the business cycle. This is short term. Long term the economy will be awash in money again.
rileymat2 4y ago
Not if there are projects that become economically feasible at higher productivity numbers. For example, I have a friend who owns pub that wanted a membership loyalty program customized to his business. He had a lot of great ideas, but I told him that this project is too big for the benefit he will get out of it; he would need to get 4 or 5 other bar owners together with similar needs. I believe there is a lot of software to be built if we radically change productivity. I believe This will keep the engineering demand up, and people employed.
ttyprintk 4y ago
There’s replacing engineer hours and there’s replacing engineering. I thing GP is talking about a 1000x capable AI replacing the division.

jeremyjh 4y ago

Yes and this is true of most use-cases of ChatGPT. It makes experts more productive but it cannot reliably produce expert quality work in the hands of a non-expert.

travisjungroth 4y ago

Not always. Compilers didn't replace programmers. An increase in supply can cause a drop in price that causes an increase in demand: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand

danpalmer 4y ago
Exactly. Better auto-complete didn't either, and I think we're still very much in the category of better auto-complete, rather than writing complete software from scratch.
coldtea 4y ago
In this case we were already in a decreased demand phase, due to lack of money in the economy. And unlike the era of the arrival of compilers, we're not in an rapidly-expanging-computer-market stage either. Only the "replace programmers with AI" segments are growing.
- quonn 4y ago
  How are they growing? Nobody is replacing anyone so far. And a short term business cycle is not very relevant either. By the time practical tools are read the cycle may have inverted.
  - coldtea 4y ago
    >How are they growing? Increasingly more tools aimed at that are produced, and they are increasingly adopted. From CoPilot to specialized tools for end users to do what programmers (and other jobs like graphic designers) did for them. >And a short term business cycle is not very relevant either. By the time practical tools are read the cycle may have inverted. Who said it's short term?
    - travisjungroth 4y ago
      You commented about phases, stages, and lack of money in the economy. Sounds like short term cycles.
      - coldtea 4y ago
        Phases, stages and lack of money are not synonymous with short term.
        quonn 4y ago
        Yes they are. It‘s called the business cycle. This is short term. Long term the economy will be awash in money again.

rileymat2 4y ago

Not if there are projects that become economically feasible at higher productivity numbers. For example, I have a friend who owns pub that wanted a membership loyalty program customized to his business. He had a lot of great ideas, but I told him that this project is too big for the benefit he will get out of it; he would need to get 4 or 5 other bar owners together with similar needs. I believe there is a lot of software to be built if we radically change productivity. I believe This will keep the engineering demand up, and people employed.

ttyprintk 4y ago

There’s replacing engineer hours and there’s replacing engineering. I thing GP is talking about a 1000x capable AI replacing the division.