8 ms·

Legacy auto faces unsellable car disaster in China as pollution crunch looms

gpetukhov 4y ago
For more context: "Over 25% of all new cars sold in China in 2022 were electric."
- qikInNdOutReply 4y ago
  https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants/ So.. its switching from petrol to coal? Unless they really ramp up nuclear and solar. Which they did not so far.. And dont forget, the first 100.000 kilometers of energy are already spent driving of the lot, building a new car. So fading away old cars as slow as possible is the most energy efficient strategy?
  - andylynch 4y ago
    That would still be a win for cities there. But it looks like coal and non-renewables' share of electricity there is now declining too, from roughly 4/5 to 2/3 in the last decade* (a lot of that is due to wind energy, which is rapidly ramping up there. * https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-electricity-coal?tab=chart&country=CHN~OWID_WRL~OECD+%28BP%29 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-electricity-coal?ta...
    - qikInNdOutReply 4y ago
      Yes, the share is dropping, but the overall cake is growing, resulting in coal still expanding.
    - albertopv 4y ago
      China is building and planning new coal power plants more than the rest of the world combined. Share it's droppibg but China alone will pollute much more than everyone else combined.
  - pigsty 4y ago
    Coal is awful, but also keep in mind that it’s shipped to centralized locations to be burned. Gas for cars is shipped to a distribution center, loaded onto trucks that are immensely heavy and require loads of fuel to haul, shipped to a local distribution center, loaded onto trucks, driven somewhere else, pumped into a station, then those trucks drive back, and people often drive out of their way for gas instead of just charging at their destination. (Nobody has a gas station at their house and few desirable stores include gas stations) It’s entirely possible that this process ends up using more energy than just burning coal. https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/2020/03/30/yes-electric-cars-are-cleaner-even-when-the-power-comes-from-coal/?sh=590ae56f2320 https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/2020/03/30/yes-electr...
  - Sankozi 4y ago
    Where do you get all that misleading information? > So.. its switching from petrol to coal? Switching from burning fossil fuels in tiny inefficient engine to burning them in modern power plant is already a very positive change. > Unless they really ramp up nuclear and solar. Which they did not so far.. Really? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China > And dont forget, the first 100.000 kilometers of energy are already spent driving of the lot, building a new car. So fading away old cars as slow as possible is the most energy efficient strategy? No it is not a good strategy. It is better to replace oldest cars first, because they are usually least efficient, but even if you replace new ICE car, that car does not disappear - it will probably be sold and replace old, less efficient ICE car.
  - bdcravens 4y ago
    Assuming they never move away from fossil fuels, it's still a win. Electricity is far more efficient at converting energy into movement than fossil fuels (roughly 75% vs 15%) Also, solar is absolutely growing in China, growing by roughly 30% in 2023: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-solar-power-capacity-could-post-record-growth-2023-2023-02-16 https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-solar-power-capaci...
    - haveabanana 4y ago
      >Electricity is far more efficient at converting energy into movement than fossil fuels (roughly 75% vs 15%) This metric could also be described as: "what percentage of the total energy content of your car's fuel tank will be converted into kinetic energy?" What is the point of this metric? Solar panels are less efficent at converting incident sunlight into electricity, than fossil-fueled power stations are at converting hydrocarbons into electricity. The same applies for wind turbines converting kinetic energy into electricity. Blindly taking the "efficiency" of one tiny step in the process of converting an energy source into automotive propulsion will lead to some absurd conclusions.
  - henry_viii 4y ago
    > Unless they really ramp up nuclear China is ramping up nuclear: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-climate-goals-hinge-on-440-billion-nuclear-power-plan-to-rival-u-s https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-cli... > The first 100.000 kilometers of energy are already spent driving of the lot, building a new car China is the leader of electric 2-seater cars (Wuling Mini, Geely Panda Mini). Comparison between a Wuling Mini and a Tesla Model 3: - battery weight: ~100 kg vs. 500+ kg - total weight: ~600 kg vs. 1,600+ kg - retail price: ~5,000 EUR vs. ~50,000 EUR I doubt it takes as much energy to break even on a Wuling Mini than it does on a Model 3. A better question would be - why should Europeans be excluded from affordable electric Chinese cars because of the political chess between the US and China?
- wil421 4y ago
  How many of the 25% are what we would consider tricked out golf carts in the US?
  - ygra 4y ago
    Well, that doesn't really matter, does it? Vehicles provide transportation from A to B for occupants and cargo. If a small vehicle suffices, then larger ones shouldn't be necessary. Of course, this is also a challenge for planning infrastructure in a way that large vehicles are not necessary in population centers (which should, by definition, be built for people, not large cars).
  - pjc50 4y ago
    The US has a very distorted view of what a "normal car" is by size.
  - bdcravens 4y ago
    Many gas cars in China aren't much bigger. Your average SUV in the US is what much of the world would consider a cargo truck.
  - shakow 4y ago
    And? As long it gets the job done, problem solved. Using a 2.5tons F150 guzzling 12l/100km to buy grocery or commute should not be seen as the ultimate goal. Just for fun: most sold car in the US (F150) vs. most sold car in France (208) https://www.carsized.com/en/cars/compare/peugeot-208-2019-5-door-hatchback-vs-ford-f150-2014-4-door-pickup-supercrew-5.5/ https://www.carsized.com/en/cars/compare/peugeot-208-2019-5-...
    - tyingq 4y ago
      I would guess GP was talking about safety, not trying to promote oversized cars. Edit: There's a specific bottom end part of the market with small Chinese cars that have horrible safety problems.
      - CalRobert 4y ago
jansan 4y ago
Looks a bit like Euro 6 standard, with a lower CO limit. Given that meanwhile cars use the same engines worldwide, shouldn't this be a non-issue?
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  It often happens, that western manufacturer will pack its old line and move it to the east to make basically same car under different name.
passwordoops 4y ago
Always amuses me when I read EV sites talking about the imminent demise of "legacy" automakers because it's just oh-so-impossible to shift from manufacturing ICE to EVs. Sure they may have dragged their feet, but GM, Ford, Hyundai are definitely there and selling EVs in China. Just not at the same price point as BYD, or other Chinese OEMs which is likely a much bigger driver in the decline of sales of non-Chinese cars.
- rippercushions 4y ago
  Did you read the article? It's not about manufacturing, it's about an imminent change in Chinese regulations that will literally make it illegal to sell many cars sitting in a lot today.
  - passwordoops 4y ago
    ... Because foreign legacy manufacturers aren't fast enough to the EV transition, is the thesis posted by the author. Such as in this quote where he ignores foreign car companies who are marketing EVs in China and not once mentions price. Nor does he mention the potential role the growing US-China tensions may be playing in the decisions of Chinese consumers "while foreign companies like Toyota and Volkswagen are manufacturing and selling mostly petrol and diesel cars in China."
  - yodon 4y ago
    To quote dang and the HN FAQ: "Please don't comment on whether someone read an article. "Did you even read the article? It mentions that" can be shortened to "The article mentions that."" https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- ckw 4y ago
  As of 11-22 GM "expects its EV lineup to be profitable by 2025." "Ford's Model e business generated operating profit margins of roughly negative 40% in 2022, according to the company." I don't see how those companies survive.
sparsely 4y ago
> China released its rule for stage 6 light-duty vehicle emissions limits in December 2016, so manufacturers have had 7 years to bring their vehicles into line. Don't feel too sorry for them if they couldn't read the laws in the country they were selling in.
- madduci 4y ago
  It looks like they couldn't ever read the regulations existing in their original country as well. The Euro 6 Norm was declared years before it became a reality and so is going again with the announcement of Euro 7. If they can't complain with regulations, bribing until the last seconds, it's not a regulatory fault.
baybal2 4y ago
[dead]
thriftwy 4y ago
I wonder if they may just send all of these over the border to Russia. I also wonder what Euro-family standard do these China 6a/6b correspond.
- b3lvedere 4y ago
  My very uneducated guess is a lot of those cars will also go to several countries in Africa.
- ljf 4y ago
  It looks to be very aligned to EURO7 standards - so great to see these coming in earlier in China than Europe, and will also mean that engines and set-ups can be reused. What are the standards in the US?
  - Glawen 4y ago
    CARB, Euro norms are more or less aligned with CARB
pjc50 4y ago
Took me most of the article before I could work out whether "inventory crisis" was too much or too little inventory. Apparently it's too much, which I guess is the bounceback from the too little inventory of the COVID period.
Tade0 4y ago
There needs to be some way out of this that doesn't result in scrapping freshly produced cars. I suspect China implements these measures for geopolitical, not environmental reasons, but still. I suppose a penalty function of the same type the EU employs for exceeding CO2 limits (€95 per gram over the limit, per kilometer, per car) should help - assuming there is no foul play similar to what VW (and others really) did a decade ago.
- reportgunner 4y ago
  Can't they just install electric motors in the ICE cars ?
  - rlpb 4y ago
    It's installing batteries that's the main problem. Where are they going to go?
  - yardie 4y ago
    No. Most systems in a ICE car are designed to be run off the belt of an idling engine. An electric car is only running when you put your foot on the accelerator. So cooling, climatisation, power steering, braking assistance will all need an electric retrofit in addition to the drive train. Ford tried to retrofit an electric PHEV in its Escape and Fusion. Most of the useful cargo space was taken away to retrofit the relatively small battery.
- the8472 4y ago
  > China released its rule for stage 6 light-duty vehicle emissions limits in December 2016, so manufacturers have had 7 years to bring their vehicles into line. If manufacturers knowingly create stranded assets why would they need to be bailed out?
- rjsw 4y ago
  An OEM kit to replace the engine in existing cars with an electric one and batteries would be good. There are plenty of TV programmes showing custom conversions of classic cars but we need something larger scale.

For more context: "Over 25% of all new cars sold in China in 2022 were electric."

qikInNdOutReply 4y ago
https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants/ So.. its switching from petrol to coal? Unless they really ramp up nuclear and solar. Which they did not so far.. And dont forget, the first 100.000 kilometers of energy are already spent driving of the lot, building a new car. So fading away old cars as slow as possible is the most energy efficient strategy?
- andylynch 4y ago
  That would still be a win for cities there. But it looks like coal and non-renewables' share of electricity there is now declining too, from roughly 4/5 to 2/3 in the last decade* (a lot of that is due to wind energy, which is rapidly ramping up there. * https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-electricity-coal?tab=chart&country=CHN~OWID_WRL~OECD+%28BP%29 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-electricity-coal?ta...
  - qikInNdOutReply 4y ago
    Yes, the share is dropping, but the overall cake is growing, resulting in coal still expanding.
  - albertopv 4y ago
    China is building and planning new coal power plants more than the rest of the world combined. Share it's droppibg but China alone will pollute much more than everyone else combined.
- pigsty 4y ago
  Coal is awful, but also keep in mind that it’s shipped to centralized locations to be burned. Gas for cars is shipped to a distribution center, loaded onto trucks that are immensely heavy and require loads of fuel to haul, shipped to a local distribution center, loaded onto trucks, driven somewhere else, pumped into a station, then those trucks drive back, and people often drive out of their way for gas instead of just charging at their destination. (Nobody has a gas station at their house and few desirable stores include gas stations) It’s entirely possible that this process ends up using more energy than just burning coal. https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/2020/03/30/yes-electric-cars-are-cleaner-even-when-the-power-comes-from-coal/?sh=590ae56f2320 https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/2020/03/30/yes-electr...
- Sankozi 4y ago
  Where do you get all that misleading information? > So.. its switching from petrol to coal? Switching from burning fossil fuels in tiny inefficient engine to burning them in modern power plant is already a very positive change. > Unless they really ramp up nuclear and solar. Which they did not so far.. Really? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China > And dont forget, the first 100.000 kilometers of energy are already spent driving of the lot, building a new car. So fading away old cars as slow as possible is the most energy efficient strategy? No it is not a good strategy. It is better to replace oldest cars first, because they are usually least efficient, but even if you replace new ICE car, that car does not disappear - it will probably be sold and replace old, less efficient ICE car.
- bdcravens 4y ago
  Assuming they never move away from fossil fuels, it's still a win. Electricity is far more efficient at converting energy into movement than fossil fuels (roughly 75% vs 15%) Also, solar is absolutely growing in China, growing by roughly 30% in 2023: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-solar-power-capacity-could-post-record-growth-2023-2023-02-16 https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-solar-power-capaci...
  - haveabanana 4y ago
    >Electricity is far more efficient at converting energy into movement than fossil fuels (roughly 75% vs 15%) This metric could also be described as: "what percentage of the total energy content of your car's fuel tank will be converted into kinetic energy?" What is the point of this metric? Solar panels are less efficent at converting incident sunlight into electricity, than fossil-fueled power stations are at converting hydrocarbons into electricity. The same applies for wind turbines converting kinetic energy into electricity. Blindly taking the "efficiency" of one tiny step in the process of converting an energy source into automotive propulsion will lead to some absurd conclusions.
- henry_viii 4y ago
  > Unless they really ramp up nuclear China is ramping up nuclear: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-climate-goals-hinge-on-440-billion-nuclear-power-plan-to-rival-u-s https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-cli... > The first 100.000 kilometers of energy are already spent driving of the lot, building a new car China is the leader of electric 2-seater cars (Wuling Mini, Geely Panda Mini). Comparison between a Wuling Mini and a Tesla Model 3: - battery weight: ~100 kg vs. 500+ kg - total weight: ~600 kg vs. 1,600+ kg - retail price: ~5,000 EUR vs. ~50,000 EUR I doubt it takes as much energy to break even on a Wuling Mini than it does on a Model 3. A better question would be - why should Europeans be excluded from affordable electric Chinese cars because of the political chess between the US and China?
wil421 4y ago
How many of the 25% are what we would consider tricked out golf carts in the US?
- ygra 4y ago
  Well, that doesn't really matter, does it? Vehicles provide transportation from A to B for occupants and cargo. If a small vehicle suffices, then larger ones shouldn't be necessary. Of course, this is also a challenge for planning infrastructure in a way that large vehicles are not necessary in population centers (which should, by definition, be built for people, not large cars).
- pjc50 4y ago
  The US has a very distorted view of what a "normal car" is by size.
- bdcravens 4y ago
  Many gas cars in China aren't much bigger. Your average SUV in the US is what much of the world would consider a cargo truck.
- shakow 4y ago
  And? As long it gets the job done, problem solved. Using a 2.5tons F150 guzzling 12l/100km to buy grocery or commute should not be seen as the ultimate goal. Just for fun: most sold car in the US (F150) vs. most sold car in France (208) https://www.carsized.com/en/cars/compare/peugeot-208-2019-5-door-hatchback-vs-ford-f150-2014-4-door-pickup-supercrew-5.5/ https://www.carsized.com/en/cars/compare/peugeot-208-2019-5-...
  - tyingq 4y ago
    I would guess GP was talking about safety, not trying to promote oversized cars. Edit: There's a specific bottom end part of the market with small Chinese cars that have horrible safety problems.
    - CalRobert 4y ago

Looks a bit like Euro 6 standard, with a lower CO limit. Given that meanwhile cars use the same engines worldwide, shouldn't this be a non-issue?

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
It often happens, that western manufacturer will pack its old line and move it to the east to make basically same car under different name.

passwordoops 4y ago

Always amuses me when I read EV sites talking about the imminent demise of "legacy" automakers because it's just oh-so-impossible to shift from manufacturing ICE to EVs. Sure they may have dragged their feet, but GM, Ford, Hyundai are definitely there and selling EVs in China. Just not at the same price point as BYD, or other Chinese OEMs which is likely a much bigger driver in the decline of sales of non-Chinese cars.

rippercushions 4y ago
Did you read the article? It's not about manufacturing, it's about an imminent change in Chinese regulations that will literally make it illegal to sell many cars sitting in a lot today.
- passwordoops 4y ago
  ... Because foreign legacy manufacturers aren't fast enough to the EV transition, is the thesis posted by the author. Such as in this quote where he ignores foreign car companies who are marketing EVs in China and not once mentions price. Nor does he mention the potential role the growing US-China tensions may be playing in the decisions of Chinese consumers "while foreign companies like Toyota and Volkswagen are manufacturing and selling mostly petrol and diesel cars in China."
- yodon 4y ago
  To quote dang and the HN FAQ: "Please don't comment on whether someone read an article. "Did you even read the article? It mentions that" can be shortened to "The article mentions that."" https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
ckw 4y ago
As of 11-22 GM "expects its EV lineup to be profitable by 2025." "Ford's Model e business generated operating profit margins of roughly negative 40% in 2022, according to the company." I don't see how those companies survive.

sparsely 4y ago

> China released its rule for stage 6 light-duty vehicle emissions limits in December 2016, so manufacturers have had 7 years to bring their vehicles into line. Don't feel too sorry for them if they couldn't read the laws in the country they were selling in.

madduci 4y ago
It looks like they couldn't ever read the regulations existing in their original country as well. The Euro 6 Norm was declared years before it became a reality and so is going again with the announcement of Euro 7. If they can't complain with regulations, bribing until the last seconds, it's not a regulatory fault.

baybal2 4y ago

[dead]

thriftwy 4y ago

I wonder if they may just send all of these over the border to Russia. I also wonder what Euro-family standard do these China 6a/6b correspond.

b3lvedere 4y ago
My very uneducated guess is a lot of those cars will also go to several countries in Africa.
ljf 4y ago
It looks to be very aligned to EURO7 standards - so great to see these coming in earlier in China than Europe, and will also mean that engines and set-ups can be reused. What are the standards in the US?
- Glawen 4y ago
  CARB, Euro norms are more or less aligned with CARB

pjc50 4y ago

Took me most of the article before I could work out whether "inventory crisis" was too much or too little inventory. Apparently it's too much, which I guess is the bounceback from the too little inventory of the COVID period.

Tade0 4y ago

There needs to be some way out of this that doesn't result in scrapping freshly produced cars. I suspect China implements these measures for geopolitical, not environmental reasons, but still. I suppose a penalty function of the same type the EU employs for exceeding CO2 limits (€95 per gram over the limit, per kilometer, per car) should help - assuming there is no foul play similar to what VW (and others really) did a decade ago.

reportgunner 4y ago
Can't they just install electric motors in the ICE cars ?
- rlpb 4y ago
  It's installing batteries that's the main problem. Where are they going to go?
- yardie 4y ago
  No. Most systems in a ICE car are designed to be run off the belt of an idling engine. An electric car is only running when you put your foot on the accelerator. So cooling, climatisation, power steering, braking assistance will all need an electric retrofit in addition to the drive train. Ford tried to retrofit an electric PHEV in its Escape and Fusion. Most of the useful cargo space was taken away to retrofit the relatively small battery.
the8472 4y ago
> China released its rule for stage 6 light-duty vehicle emissions limits in December 2016, so manufacturers have had 7 years to bring their vehicles into line. If manufacturers knowingly create stranded assets why would they need to be bailed out?
rjsw 4y ago
An OEM kit to replace the engine in existing cars with an electric one and batteries would be good. There are plenty of TV programmes showing custom conversions of classic cars but we need something larger scale.