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We have to contemplate the possibility that Xi has made the determination that war with the United States is an acceptable price to pay to pursue a conquest of

We have to contemplate the possibility that Xi has made the determination that war with the United States is an acceptable price to pay to pursue a conquest of Taiwan. We also have to contemplate the possibility that Xi has calculated that the United States won't risk nuclear war to save Taiwan, even if doing so may be the only way to deter China from invading. If I was president, I would hold a prime time address from the Oval Office to announce that any Chinese attempt to conquer or blockade Taiwan will be met with nuclear strikes on the Chinese mainland, including civilian targets. I would state my intent to sacrifice the lives of millions of Americans to protect Taiwan if that's what it takes. And to get the point across, I would detonate a nuke in atmosphere over an empty stretch of ocean between Guam and Hawaii, and release the footage for the world to see. Yes, this would be insane. But Xi's advisers may have determined that they can win a conventional war with the US over Taiwan, and that the People's Liberation Army Navy could keep the Strait of Malacca free from USN interference. Xi may, correctly or not, have concluded that only such a threat could deter him. And that a US president is unlikely to issue such a threat. We have to be prepared for the possibility that China will gain control over TSMC's foundries and use them to blackmail the West and any other unfriendly countries into submission. If this is correct, then there are only three options: copy TSMC's capabilities in the West, destroy the foundries during a conflict, or deter China from invading. Or deny them a victory if they try. But I don't want to hear "China wouldn't dare", "there's only a small window of opportunity where the weather allows an amphibious landing", "It would be the largest military operation in history", etc. China may have calculated that they can overcome any logistical hurdle. They're not stupid. They know all of this. But at some point, the hardliners will lose patience and demand results. And the hardliners happen to be in charge.

firstlink 4y ago
> a US president is unlikely to issue such a threat A US president is irrelevant. What are the elites willing to do?
morelandjs 4y ago
Your hypothetical actions are insane and you’ve just lost the support of Europe. Moreover, China is calling your bluff because it’s so over the top it looks like bluster.
- GalenErso 4y ago
  > Moreover, China is calling your bluff because it’s so over the top it looks like bluster. If China tries to invade anyway after these threats, I'm asking the military aide who follows the president at all times to open the football and I'm transmitting an order to Strategic Command to begin nuclear strikes on China. But that shouldn't happen because China is supposed to be deterred.
  - sacnoradhq 4y ago
    You would kill everyone in the world over Taiwan?
- kelipso 4y ago
  It's so insane it'd lose support everywhere including Latin America and a massive portion on the citizenry
  - GalenErso 4y ago
    If Latin America is happy to live in a world dominated by China but where the United States has been crippled because of permanent chip shortages, that's their right. But as president of the United States, I would be bound by oath to protect the interests of my country first and foremost.
    - kelipso 4y ago
      Mmm the President has to consider medium to long term geopolitical consequences that would be detrimental to US, which is what we were talking about, and not just do blustery responses.
    - arroz 4y ago
      This makes no sense, are you protecting your people by getting them nuked? You know, if the day comes that China does better Chips than the US, it won’t matter for the average joe
ianburrell 4y ago
First, threatening to strike China is insanity. Signing defense pact with Taiwan would have the same effect but wouldn't be provocation. Second, you seen to think that China can't retaliate for nuclear strike. It wouldn't be risking millions of Americans but hundred of millions. China has built a lot of ICBMs recently, now have 400 ICBMs and 400 warheads. Plenty to destroy every city in America. Third, while China can blockade Taiwan, the US can blockade China. The main thing that China imports that wouldn't stop is oil from Middle East. Blockading the Straits of Hormuz, Straits of Malacca, or Indian Ocean would be within US or allies navies.
- GalenErso 4y ago
  > First, threatening to strike China is insanity. Signing defense pact with Taiwan would have the same effect but wouldn't be provocation. The US can't sign a treaty with a state it doesn't even recognize. And recognizing Taiwan as an independent country - a basic prelude to signing a treaty with that country - would cross China's red line and compel them to invade. Also, the bread and butter of any such treaty would be to extend America's nuclear umbrella over Taiwan. You can avoid the legal complications if you issue the threat in the first place. > Second, you seen to think that China can't retaliate for nuclear strike. It wouldn't be risking millions of Americans but hundred of millions. China has built a lot of ICBMs recently, now have 400 ICBMs and 400 warheads. Plenty to destroy every city in America. Reread my post. I would threaten mutually assured destruction if China invades. That should deter them. If it doesn't, may god have mercy on us all, because those ICBMs are being fired. A threat is not credible if you're not prepared to make good on it. > Third, while China can blockade Taiwan, the US can blockade China. The main thing that China imports that wouldn't stop is oil from Middle East. Blockading the Straits of Hormuz, Straits of Malacca, or Indian Ocean would be within US or allies navies. The US should first try to break the blockade through conventional means. If that fails, nukes are on the table.
  - ianburrell 4y ago
    It doesn't make sense to announce nuclear threat now. For one, the US doesn't recognize Taiwan and doing so would provoke war. For another, China can wait for President that is less insane. It makes a lot more sense to wait until China threatens invasion and then recognize Taiwan and sign defense pact. US repeating its support for Taiwan would be sufficient now. It makes a lot more sense to gradually escalate instead of go to nuclear threat. It should be reserved for nuclear use. The US and Taiwan could defeat China conventionally.
arroz 4y ago
You would be a horrible president lol
fspeech 4y ago
You do realize that the difference between Intel and TSMC is marginal? Without TSMC your phones and laptops (if you buy the new MacBooks) will run a little hotter/slower/heavier (to get the same battery life). Sure in a market economy businesses are won on the margins. So in a sense Taiwan is a much greater threat to US chip dominance than China is. If chips are all that you care about you are risking your entire country to protect your true chip nemesis. The more believable your deterrence is, the less likely the industry will come back to the US. Quite a paradox.
FpUser 4y ago
>" would state my intent to sacrifice the lives of millions of Americans to protect Taiwan if that's what it takes" I think at this point those millions will tear you to shreds.

firstlink 4y ago

> a US president is unlikely to issue such a threat A US president is irrelevant. What are the elites willing to do?

morelandjs 4y ago

Your hypothetical actions are insane and you’ve just lost the support of Europe. Moreover, China is calling your bluff because it’s so over the top it looks like bluster.

GalenErso 4y ago
> Moreover, China is calling your bluff because it’s so over the top it looks like bluster. If China tries to invade anyway after these threats, I'm asking the military aide who follows the president at all times to open the football and I'm transmitting an order to Strategic Command to begin nuclear strikes on China. But that shouldn't happen because China is supposed to be deterred.
- sacnoradhq 4y ago
  You would kill everyone in the world over Taiwan?
kelipso 4y ago
It's so insane it'd lose support everywhere including Latin America and a massive portion on the citizenry
- GalenErso 4y ago
  If Latin America is happy to live in a world dominated by China but where the United States has been crippled because of permanent chip shortages, that's their right. But as president of the United States, I would be bound by oath to protect the interests of my country first and foremost.
  - kelipso 4y ago
    Mmm the President has to consider medium to long term geopolitical consequences that would be detrimental to US, which is what we were talking about, and not just do blustery responses.
  - arroz 4y ago
    This makes no sense, are you protecting your people by getting them nuked? You know, if the day comes that China does better Chips than the US, it won’t matter for the average joe

ianburrell 4y ago

First, threatening to strike China is insanity. Signing defense pact with Taiwan would have the same effect but wouldn't be provocation. Second, you seen to think that China can't retaliate for nuclear strike. It wouldn't be risking millions of Americans but hundred of millions. China has built a lot of ICBMs recently, now have 400 ICBMs and 400 warheads. Plenty to destroy every city in America. Third, while China can blockade Taiwan, the US can blockade China. The main thing that China imports that wouldn't stop is oil from Middle East. Blockading the Straits of Hormuz, Straits of Malacca, or Indian Ocean would be within US or allies navies.

GalenErso 4y ago
> First, threatening to strike China is insanity. Signing defense pact with Taiwan would have the same effect but wouldn't be provocation. The US can't sign a treaty with a state it doesn't even recognize. And recognizing Taiwan as an independent country - a basic prelude to signing a treaty with that country - would cross China's red line and compel them to invade. Also, the bread and butter of any such treaty would be to extend America's nuclear umbrella over Taiwan. You can avoid the legal complications if you issue the threat in the first place. > Second, you seen to think that China can't retaliate for nuclear strike. It wouldn't be risking millions of Americans but hundred of millions. China has built a lot of ICBMs recently, now have 400 ICBMs and 400 warheads. Plenty to destroy every city in America. Reread my post. I would threaten mutually assured destruction if China invades. That should deter them. If it doesn't, may god have mercy on us all, because those ICBMs are being fired. A threat is not credible if you're not prepared to make good on it. > Third, while China can blockade Taiwan, the US can blockade China. The main thing that China imports that wouldn't stop is oil from Middle East. Blockading the Straits of Hormuz, Straits of Malacca, or Indian Ocean would be within US or allies navies. The US should first try to break the blockade through conventional means. If that fails, nukes are on the table.
- ianburrell 4y ago
  It doesn't make sense to announce nuclear threat now. For one, the US doesn't recognize Taiwan and doing so would provoke war. For another, China can wait for President that is less insane. It makes a lot more sense to wait until China threatens invasion and then recognize Taiwan and sign defense pact. US repeating its support for Taiwan would be sufficient now. It makes a lot more sense to gradually escalate instead of go to nuclear threat. It should be reserved for nuclear use. The US and Taiwan could defeat China conventionally.

arroz 4y ago

You would be a horrible president lol

fspeech 4y ago

You do realize that the difference between Intel and TSMC is marginal? Without TSMC your phones and laptops (if you buy the new MacBooks) will run a little hotter/slower/heavier (to get the same battery life). Sure in a market economy businesses are won on the margins. So in a sense Taiwan is a much greater threat to US chip dominance than China is. If chips are all that you care about you are risking your entire country to protect your true chip nemesis. The more believable your deterrence is, the less likely the industry will come back to the US. Quite a paradox.

FpUser 4y ago

>" would state my intent to sacrifice the lives of millions of Americans to protect Taiwan if that's what it takes" I think at this point those millions will tear you to shreds.