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> In the next 10 years, AI/robots will generate wealth at an unprecedented scale. Food, clothing and shelter will be plentiful. Anyone who believes in the poss
by nice_byte 4y ago
> In the next 10 years, AI/robots will generate wealth at an unprecedented scale. Food, clothing and shelter will be plentiful.
Anyone who believes in the possibility of post-scarcity society must be either naive or trolling. Something cannot be made from nothing, therefore scarcity cannot be overcome, even assuming that all planning and execution is performed by superhuman synthetic minds.
Assuming that it's theoretically possible to utilize existing resources in a very efficient manner (e.g. motor running on a grain of rice for a century) and we just need AI to help us figure it out, is a _gigantic_ leap of faith and i would not bet a cent on that.
Let me paint a more realistic possibility for you (with a broader time horizon): most of the value created by automating knowledge work will be captured by private capital, and middle class will all but disappear. Education beyond basic reading and writing will become unattainable (and, frankly, unnecessary), most population will be reduced to the state of semi-literate serfdom dependent on the newly minted lords for survival. The lords wouldn't have to worry about feeding their subjects for too long though, as mass death brought about by climate change will take care of that problem.
Under that scenario, there will be no new enlightenment age to come and save us. The only reason we get to enjoy whatever freedoms we have today is that a (semi-)intellectual population is absolutely necessary to keep the complex modern economy running. Even then, those above you will do absolutely everything to limit your agency - by withholding information, lying, or just outright taking freedoms away. Do you know what happens once our participation in propping up the economic machine becomes unnecessary? Demotion to the default state of a human throughout history - a groveling, suffering serf who has no idea what's going on.
"If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face – for ever."
- JW_00000 4y ago> Education beyond basic reading and writing will become unattainable (and, frankly, unnecessary) Is this possible in democracies with free (i.e. state-provided) education? Why would a majority vote to abolish education?
- nice_byte 4y agoi didn't say it would get abolished, more like wither away. here's a possible path to it: 1) school program getting progressively dumbed down; 2) fewer and fewer people choosing to continue education after school. continuing education is mostly necessary to become specialized and perform knowledge work, it would be a waste of time to do so with emergence of a.i. agents capable of performing these functions even at a level _comparable_ to humans (let alone exceeding). repeat this for a few decades and you have a new dark age.
- qgin 4y agoSounds like fuel for a revolution. I know some governments will go to war with their own people, but all of them? There will be some countries that go the way you've described and crush any discontent with force. But some will try to navigate an outcome that socializes the benefits of automation.
- nice_byte 4y agoyou're assuming the transition would be abrupt enough to trigger a revolution. most likely that wouldn't be the case - if ruling class plays their cards right, they'll boil the frog, and all revolutionary potential will be defused.