4 ms·

These always come up and there's always this internet-commenter tendency to be like "I KNEW IT: SMARTPHONES/INTERNET/LACK-OF-RELIGION/ABCDEFG ANYTHING OF THE LA

These always come up and there's always this internet-commenter tendency to be like "I KNEW IT: SMARTPHONES/INTERNET/LACK-OF-RELIGION/ABCDEFG ANYTHING OF THE LAST 20 YEARS I HATE", which is fine for a hypothesis and worth somebody saying once. But it's really just a hypothesis. Another hypothesis is that it's environmental. There's a lot of research showing depression and stress are correlated with inflammation. There are a number of other health biomarkers that are going bad fast (sperm-count, testosterone) and it's known testosterone levels inversely correlate with depression for example. Pollution is also correlated with health and mood. So rather than declaring it over before the research even begins, let's at least consider environment.

gjsman-1000 4y ago
> There are a number of other health biomarkers that are going bad fast (sperm-count, testosterone) Which one caused which? Does hanging out on Reddit 8 hours a day not have an effect on sperm-count; or is the decline in sperm-count part of the reason you are on Reddit?
- travisjungroth 4y ago
  Or there are confounders, like environmental effects are wrecking hormones. That would cause both of those things.
  - gjsman-1000 4y ago
    Unfortunately, you have now stumbled on the extremely politically sensitive elephant in the room. If it is environmental (microplastics anyone)... do we need to stop producing certain clothes (stretch clothing is particularly bad)? Could this actually be part of the increase in youth identifying as LGBTQ [1]? Is it a greater threat to our survival, health, and well-being than the more palatable issue (but still an issue) of climate change? [1] Note, I'm not making a hypothesis or taking a position here. However, just admitting that these microplastics and other things are having effects on humans could easily lead to "were these people born this way, or were many of them poisoned that way"? And so, no surprise, nobody wants to talk about it and so the question of if it could just remains unanswered.
    - ctoth 4y ago
      It's such a shame that scientists were figuring this out but the wrong person[0] spoke up and now it's a conspiracy theory. That's a weird dynamic. Wonder if it possibly happened with anything else we now call a "conspiracy theory." [0]: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/04/respectability-cascades/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/04/respectability-cascade...
      - erichocean 4y ago
        > Even beyond the strategic perspective, it’s just sort of embarrassing to have two good theories of how society and politics work that make opposite predictions from each other. What are some heuristics for when one would work rather than another? What's embarrassing is that Scott Alexander is unable to answer that question himself. Maybe he should ask ChatGPT?
- dsfyu404ed 4y ago
  The phrase "positive feedback loop" seems relevant.
version_five 4y ago
Another hypothesis is electromagnetic fields. There are more now than ever. Cell phones, 5G, Wifi Sounds stupid right? There's a plausibility scale, and despite various hypotheses being possible, it's reasonable to rank them by what fits best with out prior knowledge, and social media is way more plausible than some post 2010 rise in inflammation, even if that could causally lead to depression in the first place.
- zug_zug 4y ago
  > post 2010 rise in inflammation You're assuming that depression and other mental illnesses only started in 2010, which is theoretically possible, but not an established fact. We've actually seen a drastic rise in most mental illnesses diagnosed going back at least 50 years. There is a hypothesis that it's diagnosis, but again, merely a hypothesis. Some of the cases which clearly aren't "diagnosis" (e.g. nearsightedness) we have no explanation for.
  - kayodelycaon 4y ago
    Speaking from my family history, bipolar just wasn’t diagnosed or treated unless it was quite severe. It’s unlikely I’d have been diagnosed 50 years ago.
- giantg2 4y ago
  It's also possible that there are multiple confounding factors at play. It's reasonable to investigate multiple angles as well as how they interact with each other.
twic 4y ago
> sperm-count Or maybe not: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34830936 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34830936
darth_avocado 4y ago
Another hypothesis is: *waves at general state of things since the mid 2000s*
- johnfn 4y ago
  You'd have to show that the "general state of things since the mid 2000s" has gotten appreciably worse than the time period prior to 2012. Rewind a decade and we had 9/11 and the Iraq war, so it doesn't seem immediately obvious that things got significantly worse.
  - TeaBrain 4y ago
    At least in the US, the public was more united in its support for the wars in the middle east at their outset in the early 2000s than they have been for anything since. The war in Afghanistan initially had 88% support[1] and the war in Iraq had 76%, though it fell to 72% shortly after[2]. [1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/9994/public-opinion-war-afghanistan.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/9994/public-opinion-war-afghani... [2] https://news.gallup.com/poll/8038/seventytwo-percent-americans-support-war-against-iraq.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/8038/seventytwo-percent-america...
bittercynic 4y ago
I suppose there are different pollutants all the time, but the areas I'm familiar with (SF Bay and LA) have gotten much less polluted in the last few decades, at least by how they look and smell. I suspect our air and water is safer now than 20 years ago, and much safer than 40 years ago. Solitary entertainment has grown drastically more engaging in the last few decades, and it seems reasonable to think that it has contributed to increased isolation and sedentary behavior. Even though it's not absolutely certainly the cause of all ills in the world, I think it's worthwhile to be cautious about digital entertainment.
- luckylion 4y ago
  Humans might be fine with some form of pollution but not others, so "there's less trash and the factory isn't dumping glowing sludge into the bay" doesn't really rule out that there's some pollution that's less visible but problematic for a subset of people (or problematic when combined with other factors, e.g. veganism or listening to mumble rap).
- zug_zug 4y ago
  > I suppose there are different pollutants all the time, but the areas I'm familiar with (SF Bay and LA) have gotten much less polluted in the last few decades, at least by how they look and smell I want to point out that pollution can be invisible. As a thought experiment - the amount of lead in your water it would take to permanently damage your brain would be invisible, untasteable, and miniscule. It's worth remembering how fragile we really are. Is it water? Most water supplies only test for about 8-10 chemicals. Who knows? Is it the microplastics we eat? As for why it would be worse now when our environment is getting better -- perhaps the damage is accumulating each generation (like sperm counts are going down each generation). There are a lot of cases where pregnant mother being exposed to something can have severe effects on the child, and sometimes even the grandchild (look up diethystylbestrol). Anyways, this is just a hypothesis, but it seems to me it should be given as strong a starting consideration as anything else. I'm sure it's not too hard to take blood samples from a few thousand people to look for health correlations to these mood issues.
  - 4y ago
Aunche 4y ago
Nothing dramatic has changed in terms of pollution in 2010 though, especially in developed western nations. If anything, it's been getting better as we've been transitioning to cleaner burning natural gas and renewables.
carimura 4y ago
It's very likely both with the rise of processed food, hormone disruptors, and the "app explosion" where negativity gets engagement/clicks.
naasking 4y ago
> Another hypothesis is that it's environmental Social media and phones are environmental factors. Increasing obesity is definitely a factor. Whether sperm and testosterone are decreasing is still speculative because the old data being used for comparisons is pretty poor. I think air pollution has actually gotten better since the 80s last I checked. Maybe increases in 'forever chemicals' are having some effect.
tick_tock_tick 4y ago
I mean "RELIGION" in and of how it normally goes hand in hand with stronger and closer communities it disappearing is probably a large factor in the current issues. I'm not religious but even I can recognize that for the vast majority of the population this support structure going away with nothing to replace it hasn't been great for a lot of people.

gjsman-1000 4y ago

> There are a number of other health biomarkers that are going bad fast (sperm-count, testosterone) Which one caused which? Does hanging out on Reddit 8 hours a day not have an effect on sperm-count; or is the decline in sperm-count part of the reason you are on Reddit?

travisjungroth 4y ago
Or there are confounders, like environmental effects are wrecking hormones. That would cause both of those things.
- gjsman-1000 4y ago
  Unfortunately, you have now stumbled on the extremely politically sensitive elephant in the room. If it is environmental (microplastics anyone)... do we need to stop producing certain clothes (stretch clothing is particularly bad)? Could this actually be part of the increase in youth identifying as LGBTQ [1]? Is it a greater threat to our survival, health, and well-being than the more palatable issue (but still an issue) of climate change? [1] Note, I'm not making a hypothesis or taking a position here. However, just admitting that these microplastics and other things are having effects on humans could easily lead to "were these people born this way, or were many of them poisoned that way"? And so, no surprise, nobody wants to talk about it and so the question of if it could just remains unanswered.
  - ctoth 4y ago
    It's such a shame that scientists were figuring this out but the wrong person[0] spoke up and now it's a conspiracy theory. That's a weird dynamic. Wonder if it possibly happened with anything else we now call a "conspiracy theory." [0]: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/04/respectability-cascades/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/04/respectability-cascade...
    - erichocean 4y ago
      > Even beyond the strategic perspective, it’s just sort of embarrassing to have two good theories of how society and politics work that make opposite predictions from each other. What are some heuristics for when one would work rather than another? What's embarrassing is that Scott Alexander is unable to answer that question himself. Maybe he should ask ChatGPT?
dsfyu404ed 4y ago
The phrase "positive feedback loop" seems relevant.

version_five 4y ago

Another hypothesis is electromagnetic fields. There are more now than ever. Cell phones, 5G, Wifi Sounds stupid right? There's a plausibility scale, and despite various hypotheses being possible, it's reasonable to rank them by what fits best with out prior knowledge, and social media is way more plausible than some post 2010 rise in inflammation, even if that could causally lead to depression in the first place.

zug_zug 4y ago
> post 2010 rise in inflammation You're assuming that depression and other mental illnesses only started in 2010, which is theoretically possible, but not an established fact. We've actually seen a drastic rise in most mental illnesses diagnosed going back at least 50 years. There is a hypothesis that it's diagnosis, but again, merely a hypothesis. Some of the cases which clearly aren't "diagnosis" (e.g. nearsightedness) we have no explanation for.
- kayodelycaon 4y ago
  Speaking from my family history, bipolar just wasn’t diagnosed or treated unless it was quite severe. It’s unlikely I’d have been diagnosed 50 years ago.
giantg2 4y ago
It's also possible that there are multiple confounding factors at play. It's reasonable to investigate multiple angles as well as how they interact with each other.

twic 4y ago

> sperm-count Or maybe not: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34830936 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34830936

darth_avocado 4y ago

Another hypothesis is: *waves at general state of things since the mid 2000s*

johnfn 4y ago
You'd have to show that the "general state of things since the mid 2000s" has gotten appreciably worse than the time period prior to 2012. Rewind a decade and we had 9/11 and the Iraq war, so it doesn't seem immediately obvious that things got significantly worse.
- TeaBrain 4y ago
  At least in the US, the public was more united in its support for the wars in the middle east at their outset in the early 2000s than they have been for anything since. The war in Afghanistan initially had 88% support[1] and the war in Iraq had 76%, though it fell to 72% shortly after[2]. [1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/9994/public-opinion-war-afghanistan.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/9994/public-opinion-war-afghani... [2] https://news.gallup.com/poll/8038/seventytwo-percent-americans-support-war-against-iraq.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/8038/seventytwo-percent-america...

bittercynic 4y ago

I suppose there are different pollutants all the time, but the areas I'm familiar with (SF Bay and LA) have gotten much less polluted in the last few decades, at least by how they look and smell. I suspect our air and water is safer now than 20 years ago, and much safer than 40 years ago. Solitary entertainment has grown drastically more engaging in the last few decades, and it seems reasonable to think that it has contributed to increased isolation and sedentary behavior. Even though it's not absolutely certainly the cause of all ills in the world, I think it's worthwhile to be cautious about digital entertainment.

luckylion 4y ago
Humans might be fine with some form of pollution but not others, so "there's less trash and the factory isn't dumping glowing sludge into the bay" doesn't really rule out that there's some pollution that's less visible but problematic for a subset of people (or problematic when combined with other factors, e.g. veganism or listening to mumble rap).
zug_zug 4y ago
> I suppose there are different pollutants all the time, but the areas I'm familiar with (SF Bay and LA) have gotten much less polluted in the last few decades, at least by how they look and smell I want to point out that pollution can be invisible. As a thought experiment - the amount of lead in your water it would take to permanently damage your brain would be invisible, untasteable, and miniscule. It's worth remembering how fragile we really are. Is it water? Most water supplies only test for about 8-10 chemicals. Who knows? Is it the microplastics we eat? As for why it would be worse now when our environment is getting better -- perhaps the damage is accumulating each generation (like sperm counts are going down each generation). There are a lot of cases where pregnant mother being exposed to something can have severe effects on the child, and sometimes even the grandchild (look up diethystylbestrol). Anyways, this is just a hypothesis, but it seems to me it should be given as strong a starting consideration as anything else. I'm sure it's not too hard to take blood samples from a few thousand people to look for health correlations to these mood issues.
- 4y ago

Aunche 4y ago

Nothing dramatic has changed in terms of pollution in 2010 though, especially in developed western nations. If anything, it's been getting better as we've been transitioning to cleaner burning natural gas and renewables.

carimura 4y ago

It's very likely both with the rise of processed food, hormone disruptors, and the "app explosion" where negativity gets engagement/clicks.

naasking 4y ago

> Another hypothesis is that it's environmental Social media and phones are environmental factors. Increasing obesity is definitely a factor. Whether sperm and testosterone are decreasing is still speculative because the old data being used for comparisons is pretty poor. I think air pollution has actually gotten better since the 80s last I checked. Maybe increases in 'forever chemicals' are having some effect.

tick_tock_tick 4y ago

I mean "RELIGION" in and of how it normally goes hand in hand with stronger and closer communities it disappearing is probably a large factor in the current issues. I'm not religious but even I can recognize that for the vast majority of the population this support structure going away with nothing to replace it hasn't been great for a lot of people.