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I do concur with this article, during the .com boom, there was a lot of things that just did not feel right, the infrastructure was not there, UPS and Fedx wher
by kls 15y ago
I do concur with this article, during the .com boom, there was a lot of things that just did not feel right, the infrastructure was not there, UPS and Fedx where not what they are now, there growth happened slower than it could provide capacity for the net. As such stuff like delivering a bag of dog food just did not have the economic argument. It still may not be there but it is much closer. Further organization like Amazon streamlined warehousing which took time. Bandwidth was also another issue, people where innovating but they where on pipes far bigger than was available to the consumer. This all lead to a premature start to what people saw coming as such it inflated far faster than the infrastructure at the time could compensate for.
Fast-forward to today, and much of those concerns have been addressed and mobile sparked a new wave of innovation. I believe that today looks much more like the industrial revolution (multi-sector advancements and convergence among them) than the .com era did as such I do believe that we are riding a bubble, just as the industrial revolution was, but it is a slower playing bubble than most people think it is. A lot of people see shades of .com era in the current atmosphere, but I shades of Marconi, Edison, Tesla and Ford. I don't think, this time it is different I just think we are comparing the this time to the wrong last time.
The parallels are very similar, a lot of disruptive technologies (lord forgive me for using that term) invented at the end of a gilded age, an economic collapse brought on by a society and economy in flux due in part by that disruption, all the while refinement, commercialization and consummation of that technology taking place followed by capital exploitation of the efficiencies gained in commercializing the technology. There is a lot different too, consumer debt was no where where it is now and we (at least America) was not involved in major warfare in the lead up to the crash. That being said, I think there is enough to be optimistic over. The convergence of technology being the one that makes me most optimistic.