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I see a lot of analogies between this and mobile phones. The Motorola DynaTAC was made commercially available in 1983 and not very useful considering the lack

by Tade0 4y ago

I see a lot of analogies between this and mobile phones. The Motorola DynaTAC was made commercially available in 1983 and not very useful considering the lack of coverage infrastructure. Within 30 years we went from 30min of talk time and 8h standby through hours of talk time and weeks of standby to days of talk time and a day of usage, not to mention a whole spectrum of form factors and features. And nobody, especially the incumbents, could predict the final shape the devices would take, sometimes to their demise(like in the case of Nokia). The Mitsubishi i-MiEV was slow, expensive and small, with little range. The Tesla Model 3 costs roughly the same (comparing to the 2011 MSRP for the Mitsubishi) adjusted for inflation, but is much better in every aspect. That's less than 15 years of development. Who knows what will happen by 2035? Maybe we'll ditch lithium in favour of sodium, just like cobalt stopped being neccesary? Maybe the battery manufacturer Amprius will get acquired by a car company and scale the production of its 500Wh/kg batteries well beyond the planned 5GWh/yr? Maybe we'll have slow chargers attached to every streetlamp? Norway is largely there regarding transitioning, despite having a cold climate. Took less than 15 years and their grid didn't collapse. Sounds like something the rest of the wolrd is capable of doing eventually.

esalman 4y ago
There's a Porsche factory in Chile there they make synthetic fuel by synthesizing water and CO2 from air. So it is net zero emission (might even be negative). It costs $40 a gallon now. By 2035 it'll probably cost $2 a gallon.. maybe even mobile synthesizers will be available and we will end up seeing EVs extinct.
- pstrateman 4y ago
  It seems far more likely that synthetic fuels will become cheaper than ev cars will become universally useful.
- godzillabrennus 4y ago
  More info for others: https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/20/porsche-pumps-first-synthetic-fuel-as-chilean-plant-finally-starts-producing/ https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/20/porsche-pumps-first-synthe...
- zinekeller 4y ago
  ... or probably not. Synthetic fuels are great for airlines which is the only realistic solution for long-distance travels (cryogenic hydrogen containers would be heavier and a significant hazard, batteries are only feasible on shorter routes), but the allure of EV isn't just because it's cleaner but also it's significantly lower maintenance versus an ICE car. Maintaining an ICE car is no joke, and while EVs do still require some maintenance it is only a fraction of ICE vehicles.
  - red-iron-pine 4y ago
    Airlines can be turned into blimps. It's the big super-carrier cargo ships that are going to need all of the fuel. That or we go the aircraft carrier route and make them nukes, which isn't feasible at the scale that international shipping operates.
    - zinekeller 4y ago
      > Airlines can be turned into blimps. For cargo, maybe, but I really doubt passengers would accept a significant slowdown on air travel.
    - iainmerrick 4y ago
      I love airships as much as the next person, but it’s really hard to see how they could replace passenger planes. Won’t journey times be much longer? Where are you going to get the passengers, and all the staff? Where are you going to land them?
    - yreg 4y ago
      Super carrier cargo ships should be nuclear.
  - sgt 4y ago
    I have a Toyota Land Cruiser. It helps to have something super reliable! Understressed gasoline engine. Now I just basically need to maintain it, there are no expensive repairs out of the ordinary. Just servicing oil brakes, suspension, tires etc.
- Gwypaas 4y ago
  Synthetic fuel is too expensive, the horrible efficiency of heat engines makes the cost ~5x compared to pure EVs. For long distance air travel and cross ocean shipping, which uses the energy density of organic fuels, it has some applications. https://simpleflying.com/saf-cost-competitive-jet-fuel/ https://simpleflying.com/saf-cost-competitive-jet-fuel/
- mywittyname 4y ago
  This doesn't address the issue of non-CO2 pollution. Which is especially bad in large cities.
cabirum 4y ago
The power grid will be roughly the same in 15 years. Now, know what the "TV pickup" is? - It's a spike in electrical grid demand when everyone turns on a kettle to make tea during commercial breaks. So, consider EVs adopted at scale, and, like, there's an apartment building with 100 tenants arriving home in the evening. They start charging their cars. That would require 7.2kW x 100 = 720kW of power (a common max for charging stations) for a single building just to charge cars.
- Tade0 4y ago
  That's a solved problem - just combine a smart meter with a charger and you can adjust the power so that it doesn't make the peak worse. For most of the night electricity usage is considerably lower than during the evening peak.
- Cort3z 4y ago
  So? The power companies makes money by delivering electricity. This sounds like a problem they want to solve.
  - AlexandrB 4y ago
    Power companies have a monopoly and make money by doing the least amount of work possible to continue collecting (effectively) rent on the lines they own. The kind of capital investment necessary to upgrade the power grid for EV will require public funding.
    - zamnos 4y ago
      Public funding you say? For infrastructure? Wasn't there some sort of thing the US President did at the end of 2021? For like a trillion dollars?
    - AnIdiotOnTheNet 4y ago
      Gee, its almost like a private company is a useless middleman in cases like this and the government should just do it themselves.
ar9av 4y ago
I don’t think I could comfortably switch to only EV cars. I think I still need a gasoline car with my Tesla. However, both of cars are similar size and mileage. One uses electricity, the other uses premium gas, as a result… round trip from work, one will cost ~$6 dollars in electricity, whereas the other is ~$15 dollars. Plus there are still some trips we do frequently where there are zero charging station for miles so having a gas car does help
otabdeveloper4 4y ago
Making a car-shaped electric vehicle is like attaching a GSM module to a rotary phone. Building future cities around electric scooters, EUCs, etc - yeah, I can see that. Electric car-shaped objects - not really. The current car-shaped infrastructure will have to change in any case.
logifail 4y ago
> Norway is largely there regarding transitioning, despite having a cold climate. Took less than 15 years and their grid didn't collapse [Norway] "Sep 2022: Over 25% of all cars on the road are plug-in electric"[0] They're just over 1/4 of the way there, I'm not sure I'd call that "largely there". Persuading people with plenty of money to buy an EV is relatively easy, as one can tell from the tone of the comments here from EV owners, who seem broadly very happy with their vehicles. Q: How do we propose to persuade the rest of society to switch? Apparently it won't be by throwing cash at the problem if one looks at Germany's take on the issue: "Germany will reduce financial incentives to buy electric cars next year after an agreement within the governing coalition, as the vehicles' growing popularity makes government subsidies unnecessary, Germany's economy ministry said on Tuesday. The incentives, or premiums, paid to buyers of electric cars will expire completely once an allocated sum of 3.4 billion euros ($3.44 billion) from the next two years' budget is spent, according to government sources."[1] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_N... [1] https://www.reuters.com/technology/german-coalition-parties-agree-reduce-e-car-subsidies-handelsblatt-2022-07-26/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/german-coalition-parties-...
- iso1631 4y ago
  Charge petrol users the true costs of their transport choices and there will be no choice but to buy an electric car (or no car at all - especially in cities)
  - generalizations 4y ago
    That sounds like a great way to grind the economy to a halt. The folks who are left include the long tail of people who make ~30k in a year.
  - logifail 4y ago
    > Charge petrol users the true costs of their transport choices Petrol/diesel users still massively outnumber EV users, and [at least in most places] everyone has a vote. Many less well-off voters are way more concerned about their family's immediate needs than they are about the long term future of the planet. Politicians may be wondering if that's really a wise fight to start? At least, not right now.
cornholio 4y ago
The grid argument is especially spurious since the power required for driving is so low. At a typical 10 kWh/100 km that a daily city commuter will draw, with most such cars charged overnight at home, you will add a grand total of 100 kWh to your monthly power bill for 1000 km. This will cover the great majority of cars and city tips with essentially no grid upgrades. The other part of transport needs - commercial fleets, long distance hauling etc. - will have dedicated charging infrastructure paid for the businesses that operate them, since it will make economic sense for them to switch to electric.
- lnsru 4y ago
  Sorry, 10 kWh at electricity meter for 100 km just does not sound real.
hadlock 4y ago
To be fair, Nokia was the target of a hostile takeover by Microsoft (Steve "developers developers developers developers" Balmer era) in their bid to make Windows 8 touch/small device a thing, then summarily and unceremoniously killed off when Windows 8 mobile failed to take off. Nokia was definitely in decline in the mid 2010s, but it was Microsoft who brought them to their early, untimely death by at least 5 years. I'm still stunned Finland allowed that to happen.
- mach1ne 4y ago
  Nokia was slow to the party and competed between Apple and Android. When opportunity offered itself to adopt a third option, Windows Phone, with market monopoly, they took it. Problem was that a couple of years later Microsoft announced their Windows Tablet, making them a direct competitor with Nokia. Now the organization was stuck with a very bad deal. They took the option of seeking acquisition by Microsoft as the apparent least worst option. Source: Transforming Nokia by Risto Siilasmaa, Nokia’s Chairman 2012-2020 https://www.paranoid-optimist.com/ https://www.paranoid-optimist.com/

by Tade0 4y ago

esalman 4y ago

There's a Porsche factory in Chile there they make synthetic fuel by synthesizing water and CO2 from air. So it is net zero emission (might even be negative). It costs $40 a gallon now. By 2035 it'll probably cost $2 a gallon.. maybe even mobile synthesizers will be available and we will end up seeing EVs extinct.

pstrateman 4y ago
It seems far more likely that synthetic fuels will become cheaper than ev cars will become universally useful.
godzillabrennus 4y ago
More info for others: https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/20/porsche-pumps-first-synthetic-fuel-as-chilean-plant-finally-starts-producing/ https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/20/porsche-pumps-first-synthe...
zinekeller 4y ago
... or probably not. Synthetic fuels are great for airlines which is the only realistic solution for long-distance travels (cryogenic hydrogen containers would be heavier and a significant hazard, batteries are only feasible on shorter routes), but the allure of EV isn't just because it's cleaner but also it's significantly lower maintenance versus an ICE car. Maintaining an ICE car is no joke, and while EVs do still require some maintenance it is only a fraction of ICE vehicles.
- red-iron-pine 4y ago
  Airlines can be turned into blimps. It's the big super-carrier cargo ships that are going to need all of the fuel. That or we go the aircraft carrier route and make them nukes, which isn't feasible at the scale that international shipping operates.
  - zinekeller 4y ago
    > Airlines can be turned into blimps. For cargo, maybe, but I really doubt passengers would accept a significant slowdown on air travel.
  - iainmerrick 4y ago
    I love airships as much as the next person, but it’s really hard to see how they could replace passenger planes. Won’t journey times be much longer? Where are you going to get the passengers, and all the staff? Where are you going to land them?
  - yreg 4y ago
    Super carrier cargo ships should be nuclear.
- sgt 4y ago
  I have a Toyota Land Cruiser. It helps to have something super reliable! Understressed gasoline engine. Now I just basically need to maintain it, there are no expensive repairs out of the ordinary. Just servicing oil brakes, suspension, tires etc.
Gwypaas 4y ago
Synthetic fuel is too expensive, the horrible efficiency of heat engines makes the cost ~5x compared to pure EVs. For long distance air travel and cross ocean shipping, which uses the energy density of organic fuels, it has some applications. https://simpleflying.com/saf-cost-competitive-jet-fuel/ https://simpleflying.com/saf-cost-competitive-jet-fuel/
mywittyname 4y ago
This doesn't address the issue of non-CO2 pollution. Which is especially bad in large cities.

cabirum 4y ago

The power grid will be roughly the same in 15 years. Now, know what the "TV pickup" is? - It's a spike in electrical grid demand when everyone turns on a kettle to make tea during commercial breaks. So, consider EVs adopted at scale, and, like, there's an apartment building with 100 tenants arriving home in the evening. They start charging their cars. That would require 7.2kW x 100 = 720kW of power (a common max for charging stations) for a single building just to charge cars.

Tade0 4y ago
That's a solved problem - just combine a smart meter with a charger and you can adjust the power so that it doesn't make the peak worse. For most of the night electricity usage is considerably lower than during the evening peak.
Cort3z 4y ago
So? The power companies makes money by delivering electricity. This sounds like a problem they want to solve.
- AlexandrB 4y ago
  Power companies have a monopoly and make money by doing the least amount of work possible to continue collecting (effectively) rent on the lines they own. The kind of capital investment necessary to upgrade the power grid for EV will require public funding.
  - zamnos 4y ago
    Public funding you say? For infrastructure? Wasn't there some sort of thing the US President did at the end of 2021? For like a trillion dollars?
  - AnIdiotOnTheNet 4y ago
    Gee, its almost like a private company is a useless middleman in cases like this and the government should just do it themselves.

ar9av 4y ago

I don’t think I could comfortably switch to only EV cars. I think I still need a gasoline car with my Tesla. However, both of cars are similar size and mileage. One uses electricity, the other uses premium gas, as a result… round trip from work, one will cost ~$6 dollars in electricity, whereas the other is ~$15 dollars. Plus there are still some trips we do frequently where there are zero charging station for miles so having a gas car does help

otabdeveloper4 4y ago

Making a car-shaped electric vehicle is like attaching a GSM module to a rotary phone. Building future cities around electric scooters, EUCs, etc - yeah, I can see that. Electric car-shaped objects - not really. The current car-shaped infrastructure will have to change in any case.

logifail 4y ago

> Norway is largely there regarding transitioning, despite having a cold climate. Took less than 15 years and their grid didn't collapse [Norway] "Sep 2022: Over 25% of all cars on the road are plug-in electric"[0] They're just over 1/4 of the way there, I'm not sure I'd call that "largely there". Persuading people with plenty of money to buy an EV is relatively easy, as one can tell from the tone of the comments here from EV owners, who seem broadly very happy with their vehicles. Q: How do we propose to persuade the rest of society to switch? Apparently it won't be by throwing cash at the problem if one looks at Germany's take on the issue: "Germany will reduce financial incentives to buy electric cars next year after an agreement within the governing coalition, as the vehicles' growing popularity makes government subsidies unnecessary, Germany's economy ministry said on Tuesday. The incentives, or premiums, paid to buyers of electric cars will expire completely once an allocated sum of 3.4 billion euros ($3.44 billion) from the next two years' budget is spent, according to government sources."[1] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_N... [1] https://www.reuters.com/technology/german-coalition-parties-agree-reduce-e-car-subsidies-handelsblatt-2022-07-26/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/german-coalition-parties-...

iso1631 4y ago
Charge petrol users the true costs of their transport choices and there will be no choice but to buy an electric car (or no car at all - especially in cities)
- generalizations 4y ago
  That sounds like a great way to grind the economy to a halt. The folks who are left include the long tail of people who make ~30k in a year.
- logifail 4y ago
  > Charge petrol users the true costs of their transport choices Petrol/diesel users still massively outnumber EV users, and [at least in most places] everyone has a vote. Many less well-off voters are way more concerned about their family's immediate needs than they are about the long term future of the planet. Politicians may be wondering if that's really a wise fight to start? At least, not right now.

cornholio 4y ago

The grid argument is especially spurious since the power required for driving is so low. At a typical 10 kWh/100 km that a daily city commuter will draw, with most such cars charged overnight at home, you will add a grand total of 100 kWh to your monthly power bill for 1000 km. This will cover the great majority of cars and city tips with essentially no grid upgrades. The other part of transport needs - commercial fleets, long distance hauling etc. - will have dedicated charging infrastructure paid for the businesses that operate them, since it will make economic sense for them to switch to electric.

lnsru 4y ago
Sorry, 10 kWh at electricity meter for 100 km just does not sound real.

hadlock 4y ago

To be fair, Nokia was the target of a hostile takeover by Microsoft (Steve "developers developers developers developers" Balmer era) in their bid to make Windows 8 touch/small device a thing, then summarily and unceremoniously killed off when Windows 8 mobile failed to take off. Nokia was definitely in decline in the mid 2010s, but it was Microsoft who brought them to their early, untimely death by at least 5 years. I'm still stunned Finland allowed that to happen.

mach1ne 4y ago
Nokia was slow to the party and competed between Apple and Android. When opportunity offered itself to adopt a third option, Windows Phone, with market monopoly, they took it. Problem was that a couple of years later Microsoft announced their Windows Tablet, making them a direct competitor with Nokia. Now the organization was stuck with a very bad deal. They took the option of seeking acquisition by Microsoft as the apparent least worst option. Source: Transforming Nokia by Risto Siilasmaa, Nokia’s Chairman 2012-2020 https://www.paranoid-optimist.com/ https://www.paranoid-optimist.com/