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Whenever I see a headline like this, I ask: Is that a lot? > Overall, Binance holds $63.2 billion in the exchange’s publicly disclosed wallets, Nansen data sho

by csours 4y ago

Whenever I see a headline like this, I ask: Is that a lot? > Overall, Binance holds $63.2 billion in the exchange’s publicly disclosed wallets, Nansen data shows. So, yes I think $2B is significant.

chrisbolt 4y ago
Less than SVB's $42B vs $175B in deposits though. Was it caused by the Signature FDIC announcement? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35350032 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35350032
- dragontamer 4y ago
  Occams Razor, for me anyway, is this announcement: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cftc-sues-binance-holdings-in-chicago-federal-court-4280ada3 https://www.wsj.com/articles/cftc-sues-binance-holdings-in-c... Binance Sued by CFTC Over Evading U.S. Rules
  - chrisbolt 4y ago
    Ah, missed that one, makes sense. Thanks!
rvz 4y ago
Yet $42B in deposits withdrawn a single day out of $175BN isn't significant for SVB? What I am seeing here is $2B in outflows is like a leaking firehose for Binance, when SVB experienced a tsunami of outflows. It would have to take more than that to make Binance go under. Fast. Surely you remember what happened weeks ago when tech bros here were screaming when their favourite VC bank and their pyramid scheme just collapsed? Either way we all know that a crypto exchange will collapse this year. Who knows. [0] [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34201475 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34201475
janmo 4y ago
$63.2 billion of which: - 30% is hold in USDT (for which there is 0 proof that it is 1-1 backed) - 10% is hold in its own stablecoin BUSD (Not always 1-1 backed source) - 5% is in its own native token BNB - 15% is in small cap (shtcoins) source*: https://protos.com/binances-stablecoin-busd-hasnt-always-been-11-backed-report/ https://protos.com/binances-stablecoin-busd-hasnt-always-bee...
- SV_BubbleTime 4y ago
  So, how do you bet against them now?
  - latchkey 4y ago
    Short BNB
    - codetrotter 4y ago
      But there is no way to know the timeframe. That is one of the things I don’t understand about shorting.
      - jacquesm 4y ago
        Shorting is gambling if it isn't informed by knowledge that is legally obtained but not common. And even then: the kind of leverage that you are playing with has limited upside and unlimited downside so it isn't for everybody. Trading in stocks at least has a limit on the downside (but lacks the degree of leverage that you can get with shorting). The main risk that you've correctly identified is that even the best information will come with caveats around the timeframe, the next being that you can't assume you are dealing with rational actors. That's why you see parties that short based on relatively unknown information publish that information as loud as they can after they've made their trades so that they can control the timing to some extent.
        kortilla 4y ago
varunjain99 4y ago
While it is significant, the article also does mention they've faced larger outflows in the past.
csomar 4y ago
It is not. coinglass has the inflows/outflows of the top exchanges and they had worse days. Also their BNB seems to be largely unaffected though it did drop a bit... am wondering if the users are aware of these news, they don't care, or are confident Binance will come through.
- headsoup 4y ago
  Or it's mostly wash traded and manipulated so not very related.
- RC_ITR 4y ago
  >am wondering if the users are aware of these news, they don't care, or are confident Binance will come through. Or this is evidence that the 'true' market is thin/insignificant and the price is mostly controlled by inauthentic volume that is coming from (and going to) Binance itself.
medellin 4y ago
How does finding out that it’s less then 5% of what they hold lead you to the conclusion that it is significant?
- mathematicaster 4y ago
  I am guessing it is because that was "real" money, and what remains is "generously" marked to market.
boringg 4y ago
Also remember now that the article is out that drawdown is going to be significantly more and much faster.

by csours 4y ago

chrisbolt 4y ago

Less than SVB's $42B vs $175B in deposits though. Was it caused by the Signature FDIC announcement? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35350032 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35350032

dragontamer 4y ago
Occams Razor, for me anyway, is this announcement: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cftc-sues-binance-holdings-in-chicago-federal-court-4280ada3 https://www.wsj.com/articles/cftc-sues-binance-holdings-in-c... Binance Sued by CFTC Over Evading U.S. Rules
- chrisbolt 4y ago
  Ah, missed that one, makes sense. Thanks!

rvz 4y ago

Yet $42B in deposits withdrawn a single day out of $175BN isn't significant for SVB? What I am seeing here is $2B in outflows is like a leaking firehose for Binance, when SVB experienced a tsunami of outflows. It would have to take more than that to make Binance go under. Fast. Surely you remember what happened weeks ago when tech bros here were screaming when their favourite VC bank and their pyramid scheme just collapsed? Either way we all know that a crypto exchange will collapse this year. Who knows. [0] [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34201475 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34201475

janmo 4y ago

$63.2 billion of which: - 30% is hold in USDT (for which there is 0 proof that it is 1-1 backed) - 10% is hold in its own stablecoin BUSD (Not always 1-1 backed source) - 5% is in its own native token BNB - 15% is in small cap (shtcoins) source*: https://protos.com/binances-stablecoin-busd-hasnt-always-been-11-backed-report/ https://protos.com/binances-stablecoin-busd-hasnt-always-bee...

SV_BubbleTime 4y ago
So, how do you bet against them now?
- latchkey 4y ago
  Short BNB
  - codetrotter 4y ago
    But there is no way to know the timeframe. That is one of the things I don’t understand about shorting.
    - jacquesm 4y ago
      Shorting is gambling if it isn't informed by knowledge that is legally obtained but not common. And even then: the kind of leverage that you are playing with has limited upside and unlimited downside so it isn't for everybody. Trading in stocks at least has a limit on the downside (but lacks the degree of leverage that you can get with shorting). The main risk that you've correctly identified is that even the best information will come with caveats around the timeframe, the next being that you can't assume you are dealing with rational actors. That's why you see parties that short based on relatively unknown information publish that information as loud as they can after they've made their trades so that they can control the timing to some extent.
      - kortilla 4y ago

varunjain99 4y ago

While it is significant, the article also does mention they've faced larger outflows in the past.

csomar 4y ago

It is not. coinglass has the inflows/outflows of the top exchanges and they had worse days. Also their BNB seems to be largely unaffected though it did drop a bit... am wondering if the users are aware of these news, they don't care, or are confident Binance will come through.

headsoup 4y ago
Or it's mostly wash traded and manipulated so not very related.
RC_ITR 4y ago
>am wondering if the users are aware of these news, they don't care, or are confident Binance will come through. Or this is evidence that the 'true' market is thin/insignificant and the price is mostly controlled by inauthentic volume that is coming from (and going to) Binance itself.

medellin 4y ago

How does finding out that it’s less then 5% of what they hold lead you to the conclusion that it is significant?

mathematicaster 4y ago
I am guessing it is because that was "real" money, and what remains is "generously" marked to market.

boringg 4y ago

Also remember now that the article is out that drawdown is going to be significantly more and much faster.