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The Chevy Bolt is pretty cheap, especially with a rebate. There are a lot of people who just can't afford a new car. That's a legitimate concern. EVs are gra

by elihu 4y ago

The Chevy Bolt is pretty cheap, especially with a rebate. There are a lot of people who just can't afford a new car. That's a legitimate concern. EVs are gradually working their way into the used market. EV conversion is another option that's currently only for moderately well-off people with a lot of free time, but with the right kits it could be a more routine thing.

logifail 4y ago
> The Chevy Bolt is pretty cheap $26,500? [0] How much is a new Mitsubishi Mirage (for instance) where you are? > There are a lot of people who just can't afford a new car I'm talking about people who can afford a new ICE vehicle, but won't/can't pay the extra to get an EV. [0] https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev
- estebank 4y ago
  > The average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle in the U.S. hit a record high in December at $49,507, an increase of 1.9% ($927) from November and up 4.9% ($2,297) from year-earlier levels. New-vehicle inventory levels are increasing from historic lows earlier in 2022, but prices remain elevated, according to data released today by Kelley Blue Book, a Cox Automotive company. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-december-2022/ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-december-...
- Spooky23 4y ago
  It’s the classic capital be operational cost comparison. Lower fuel cost and minimal maintenance makes EVs cheaper in most cases.
  - 2muchcoffeeman 4y ago
    But the extra upfront cost makes it unaffordable or presents an opportunity cost.
  - BeetleB 4y ago
    To anyone who believes this: I strongly urge you to start tracking all your vehicle expenses. I've been doing this for over 15 years, and when I compare my reality with estimates/calculators online, the latter significantly overestimates the cost of repairs/maintenance. As a concrete example, the last time I used the official government calculator to compare ICE vs a comparable sized EV (e.g. size of Honda Accord), it gave the breakeven point at 7 years, with the following assumptions: 1. Gas at $7/gal (you pick the price and the chart adjusts accordingly - if I picked a more reasonable price the breakeven point was way far out). 2. It estimated repairs/maintenance for ICE at over $2000/year starting from year 1. Bullet 2 above is ridiculous. I have all my car related transactions. In over 20 years of owning cars, I never came close to $2000/year. Note that: 1. I buy old cars (typically 8 years old when I buy them) - so they need more repairs than the one that's 1-3 years old. 2. I'm not a car person. I do whatever my mechanic recommends. I follow the maintenance schedule in the manual. I'm not cheaping out on repairs. Similarly, the Edmunds TCO calculator also spits out some insanely high repair numbers. When you track the expenses like I do, it becomes hard to believe that the up front extra cost for an EV will ever be compensated by gasoline and repair costs. EVs are, frankly, really expensive right now. (I will note that when I buy cars, I do thorough research on "reliability", with the aim of minimizing repairs).
    - elif 4y ago
      Okay, I'll track all my expenses here for you: My 2012 leaf has never been in a shop other than a tire shop. I haven't even had to change brake pads. My 2004 Volvo and 2003 ranger were constantly throwing errors I spent thousands chasing, some of which required replacing the same part twice. Oh and don't forget about oil changes.
      - BeetleB 4y ago
        How much did you spend on those tires? Also, if you haven't changed brake pads, I wonder how many miles you've driven it. Was this your primary car? For me a Leaf wasn't an option. I can't go smaller than a Corolla/Civic, and prefer an Accord sized car - that's what I compared prices with EV. Still, here are my numbers from 2012 onwards: Repairs + maintenance = $5173.75 (includes tire changes). Gas = $9480.13 (about 110K miles) Now the Leaf MSRP in 2012 was $36K. The equivalent sized Yaris was $17K. Currently, the used 2012 Yaris is worth $1600 more than a used 2012 Leaf (assuming 110K miles). When you factor in tax benefits, the extra repairs the Yaris would need, and adjust the cost for fuel, it's not obvious that the Leaf was a better buy. Also, the real maintenance/repair costs would be significantly lower than what I quoted above, because those repairs were due to buying fairly old cars. (And then factor in how much I actually spent on purchasing cars in that time period because I bought used: $12500 and the Leaf looks even less appealing). Of course, the Yaris is way better if going out of town. Anecdata, but everyone I know who bought a Leaf till about 2016 said it was not usable as a primary car - too short a range in cold weather. One person said "I can't commute to work and back, and do errands, without recharging." As for Volvo/Ranger: Do you not take some responsibility for those purchasing decisions? When I was buying my first car, I was told to stay away from BMW, Mercedes, and Volvo. I was a student and was told I'd never be able to afford even minor repairs. In fact, a friend who was an engineer in Austin at the time bought a used Mercedes, and soon after the AC stopped working. He never got it fixed - he would use it only in the winter while he drove his Corolla the rest of the year. Regarding the Ranger: I'm looking at reliability scores and they're poor, even for brand new ones.
- rootusrootus 4y ago
  > $26,500? Minus $7500 for the tax credit, minus another $7500 in some states with rebates. And even if you did pay $26.5K, saving 75% or more on fueling cost also helps a bunch with TCO.
  - serf 4y ago
    be especially careful of considering tax rebates when talking about products made for the lowest income portion of the economy. Many of the most poor do not file taxes -- but they may still need personal transportation.
    - jdminhbg 4y ago
      A Bolt is more likely a second car for a family that does pay taxes than a primary purchase for one that doesn’t.
    - brewdad 4y ago
      Anyone too poor to file taxes isn’t buying a new car.
    - elihu 4y ago
      I think more relevant is that many of the middle class do pay significant taxes, they just don't have enough federal tax liability to be able to claim the whole credit. It's a shame the credit isn't refundable. It's weird that you can be too poor to get the whole subsidy.
- elihu 4y ago
  > How much is a new Mitsubishi Mirage (for instance) where you are? Looking at a random local Mitsubishi dealer's website, it looks like a 2023 Mirage is around 19-20k. Which is cheaper than a Bolt, but if you qualify for the full federal rebate or have big state rebates it'd come out about the same price. They do have a 2017 Mirage listed for $9,900, which is a lot less than the Bolt. The site doesn't say it's used. > I'm talking about people who can afford a new ICE vehicle, but won't/can't pay the extra to get an EV. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boots_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boots_theory
JKCalhoun 4y ago
> EVs are gradually working their way into the used market. What does a new battery run?
- zamnos 4y ago
  Which end of the segment? Cells don't degrade uniformly, so refurbishing the existing battery is gonna be a couple hundred bucks to tear the car down and expose the battery, and then identity the bad cell and pop in a new one. At the other end of the segment, a battery for a Tesla that has more range than when it was new is gonna run you more than a couple grand. Depending on the heat it was exposed to, and number of cycles and really the age of the vehicle, it change when you'll have to replace the battery. It's worth pointing out that batteries do need to get replaced at some point, but also who knows if the used ICE car you're buying is gonna have problems passing smog, or if the cooling system's gonna crap out on you 3 miles after you drive it off the used car lot.
  - logifail 4y ago
    > Cells don't degrade uniformly, so refurbishing the existing battery is gonna be a couple hundred bucks to tear the car down and expose the battery, and then identity the bad cell and pop in a new one This sounds great, for which EVs is this available? "For many electric vehicles, there is no way to repair or assess even slightly damaged battery packs after accidents [..] Battery packs can cost tens of thousands of dollars and represent up to 50% of an EV's price tag, often making it uneconomical to replace them. While some automakers like Ford Motor Co (F.N) and General Motors Co (GM.N) said they have made battery packs easier to repair, Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) has taken the opposite tack with its Texas-built Model Y, whose new structural battery pack has been described by experts as having 'zero repairability.'"[0] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/scratched-ev-battery-your-insurer-may-have-junk-whole-car-2023-03-20/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/scratc...
    - foobazgt 4y ago
      That take is ridiculous. The cost to replace a Model Y battery is around $13K (no where near 50% of the cost of the vehicle). More than that, the battery will probably outlast the lifetime of the vehicle, with a design lifespan of approximately 500K miles. Yes, eventually when the battery dies it won't be repaired as such - instead it is designed to be nearly 100% recyclable.

by elihu 4y ago

logifail 4y ago

> The Chevy Bolt is pretty cheap $26,500? [0] How much is a new Mitsubishi Mirage (for instance) where you are? > There are a lot of people who just can't afford a new car I'm talking about people who can afford a new ICE vehicle, but won't/can't pay the extra to get an EV. [0] https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev

estebank 4y ago
> The average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle in the U.S. hit a record high in December at $49,507, an increase of 1.9% ($927) from November and up 4.9% ($2,297) from year-earlier levels. New-vehicle inventory levels are increasing from historic lows earlier in 2022, but prices remain elevated, according to data released today by Kelley Blue Book, a Cox Automotive company. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-december-2022/ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-december-...
Spooky23 4y ago
It’s the classic capital be operational cost comparison. Lower fuel cost and minimal maintenance makes EVs cheaper in most cases.
- 2muchcoffeeman 4y ago
  But the extra upfront cost makes it unaffordable or presents an opportunity cost.
- BeetleB 4y ago
  To anyone who believes this: I strongly urge you to start tracking all your vehicle expenses. I've been doing this for over 15 years, and when I compare my reality with estimates/calculators online, the latter significantly overestimates the cost of repairs/maintenance. As a concrete example, the last time I used the official government calculator to compare ICE vs a comparable sized EV (e.g. size of Honda Accord), it gave the breakeven point at 7 years, with the following assumptions: 1. Gas at $7/gal (you pick the price and the chart adjusts accordingly - if I picked a more reasonable price the breakeven point was way far out). 2. It estimated repairs/maintenance for ICE at over $2000/year starting from year 1. Bullet 2 above is ridiculous. I have all my car related transactions. In over 20 years of owning cars, I never came close to $2000/year. Note that: 1. I buy old cars (typically 8 years old when I buy them) - so they need more repairs than the one that's 1-3 years old. 2. I'm not a car person. I do whatever my mechanic recommends. I follow the maintenance schedule in the manual. I'm not cheaping out on repairs. Similarly, the Edmunds TCO calculator also spits out some insanely high repair numbers. When you track the expenses like I do, it becomes hard to believe that the up front extra cost for an EV will ever be compensated by gasoline and repair costs. EVs are, frankly, really expensive right now. (I will note that when I buy cars, I do thorough research on "reliability", with the aim of minimizing repairs).
  - elif 4y ago
    Okay, I'll track all my expenses here for you: My 2012 leaf has never been in a shop other than a tire shop. I haven't even had to change brake pads. My 2004 Volvo and 2003 ranger were constantly throwing errors I spent thousands chasing, some of which required replacing the same part twice. Oh and don't forget about oil changes.
    - BeetleB 4y ago
      How much did you spend on those tires? Also, if you haven't changed brake pads, I wonder how many miles you've driven it. Was this your primary car? For me a Leaf wasn't an option. I can't go smaller than a Corolla/Civic, and prefer an Accord sized car - that's what I compared prices with EV. Still, here are my numbers from 2012 onwards: Repairs + maintenance = $5173.75 (includes tire changes). Gas = $9480.13 (about 110K miles) Now the Leaf MSRP in 2012 was $36K. The equivalent sized Yaris was $17K. Currently, the used 2012 Yaris is worth $1600 more than a used 2012 Leaf (assuming 110K miles). When you factor in tax benefits, the extra repairs the Yaris would need, and adjust the cost for fuel, it's not obvious that the Leaf was a better buy. Also, the real maintenance/repair costs would be significantly lower than what I quoted above, because those repairs were due to buying fairly old cars. (And then factor in how much I actually spent on purchasing cars in that time period because I bought used: $12500 and the Leaf looks even less appealing). Of course, the Yaris is way better if going out of town. Anecdata, but everyone I know who bought a Leaf till about 2016 said it was not usable as a primary car - too short a range in cold weather. One person said "I can't commute to work and back, and do errands, without recharging." As for Volvo/Ranger: Do you not take some responsibility for those purchasing decisions? When I was buying my first car, I was told to stay away from BMW, Mercedes, and Volvo. I was a student and was told I'd never be able to afford even minor repairs. In fact, a friend who was an engineer in Austin at the time bought a used Mercedes, and soon after the AC stopped working. He never got it fixed - he would use it only in the winter while he drove his Corolla the rest of the year. Regarding the Ranger: I'm looking at reliability scores and they're poor, even for brand new ones.
rootusrootus 4y ago
> $26,500? Minus $7500 for the tax credit, minus another $7500 in some states with rebates. And even if you did pay $26.5K, saving 75% or more on fueling cost also helps a bunch with TCO.
- serf 4y ago
  be especially careful of considering tax rebates when talking about products made for the lowest income portion of the economy. Many of the most poor do not file taxes -- but they may still need personal transportation.
  - jdminhbg 4y ago
    A Bolt is more likely a second car for a family that does pay taxes than a primary purchase for one that doesn’t.
  - brewdad 4y ago
    Anyone too poor to file taxes isn’t buying a new car.
  - elihu 4y ago
    I think more relevant is that many of the middle class do pay significant taxes, they just don't have enough federal tax liability to be able to claim the whole credit. It's a shame the credit isn't refundable. It's weird that you can be too poor to get the whole subsidy.
elihu 4y ago
> How much is a new Mitsubishi Mirage (for instance) where you are? Looking at a random local Mitsubishi dealer's website, it looks like a 2023 Mirage is around 19-20k. Which is cheaper than a Bolt, but if you qualify for the full federal rebate or have big state rebates it'd come out about the same price. They do have a 2017 Mirage listed for $9,900, which is a lot less than the Bolt. The site doesn't say it's used. > I'm talking about people who can afford a new ICE vehicle, but won't/can't pay the extra to get an EV. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boots_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boots_theory

JKCalhoun 4y ago

> EVs are gradually working their way into the used market. What does a new battery run?

zamnos 4y ago
Which end of the segment? Cells don't degrade uniformly, so refurbishing the existing battery is gonna be a couple hundred bucks to tear the car down and expose the battery, and then identity the bad cell and pop in a new one. At the other end of the segment, a battery for a Tesla that has more range than when it was new is gonna run you more than a couple grand. Depending on the heat it was exposed to, and number of cycles and really the age of the vehicle, it change when you'll have to replace the battery. It's worth pointing out that batteries do need to get replaced at some point, but also who knows if the used ICE car you're buying is gonna have problems passing smog, or if the cooling system's gonna crap out on you 3 miles after you drive it off the used car lot.
- logifail 4y ago
  > Cells don't degrade uniformly, so refurbishing the existing battery is gonna be a couple hundred bucks to tear the car down and expose the battery, and then identity the bad cell and pop in a new one This sounds great, for which EVs is this available? "For many electric vehicles, there is no way to repair or assess even slightly damaged battery packs after accidents [..] Battery packs can cost tens of thousands of dollars and represent up to 50% of an EV's price tag, often making it uneconomical to replace them. While some automakers like Ford Motor Co (F.N) and General Motors Co (GM.N) said they have made battery packs easier to repair, Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) has taken the opposite tack with its Texas-built Model Y, whose new structural battery pack has been described by experts as having 'zero repairability.'"[0] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/scratched-ev-battery-your-insurer-may-have-junk-whole-car-2023-03-20/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/scratc...
  - foobazgt 4y ago
    That take is ridiculous. The cost to replace a Model Y battery is around $13K (no where near 50% of the cost of the vehicle). More than that, the battery will probably outlast the lifetime of the vehicle, with a design lifespan of approximately 500K miles. Yes, eventually when the battery dies it won't be repaired as such - instead it is designed to be nearly 100% recyclable.