Not disagreeing with your sequence of events, as reduced energy production and wars do send prices higher. But, there's another sequence to consider that I thin

Not disagreeing with your sequence of events, as reduced energy production and wars do send prices higher. But, there's another sequence to consider that I think is simultaneously happening: economic production makes a widget representing 100,000th of overall economy > prices set based on 100,000th of all money in existence > the banking system quadruples existing money in the system > the widget's price (eventually) quadruples as people realize there's a ton more money chasing the same number if goods. And, at least according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve bank's numbers, the US Dollar money supply has increased some 13x since the 2008 financial crises, and 5x since the beginning of 2020. Ballooning the world's reserve currency like that will have disastrous inflationary effects /at some point/. The fact its happening now, while tragic, seems wholely foreseeable.