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Blind-sided how? 50% of software engineers unemployed in 2 years, 5 years, 10 years? Or something like 50% of the US/world population using a chat-gpt style a
by sottol 4y ago
Blind-sided how?
50% of software engineers unemployed in 2 years, 5 years, 10 years?
Or something like 50% of the US/world population using a chat-gpt style assistant to perform a complicated mental task (aka not "Alexa, set a 2 minute timer.") once a day/week in 2 years, 5, 10?
Don't get me wrong, chatGPT's emergent intelligence is impressive and I'm playing with Alpaca 13B and other models locally, but I'm not sure it's going to be as transformative and as quickly as many here seem to think. Humans and society are inherently resistant to and slow to change.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- gremlinsinc 4y agoI've read estimates that it's expected gpt4+ could displace 300 million jobs world-wide in the next 3 years. That's not a small number.
- sottol 4y agoThanks, I love hard numbers. The world bank currently pegs working age population 15-64 at 5.12B, so that'd mean chatgpt would put nearly 6% of the working age population out of a job (ofc depending on your definition of "displace").