But the markets (and fivethirtyeight projections) exist for every state. Together they're a decent dataset, though still a bit light. I, too, am very interest

But the markets (and fivethirtyeight projections) exist for every state. Together they're a decent dataset, though still a bit light. I, too, am very interested in comparing betting (prediction) markets versus poll-based probabilistic forecasts. I wrote more about this here: http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/11/03/election-tuesday-what-to-expect-from-the-prediction-markets/ http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/11/03/election-tuesday-what...