4 ms·

I wonder how can the future architect get there, if going through the junior stages is suddenly not an option anymore. Because those all-understanding software

by soco 4y ago

I wonder how can the future architect get there, if going through the junior stages is suddenly not an option anymore. Because those all-understanding software architects don't just pop into existence.

creshal 4y ago
Maybe we'll finally invest into a real education and training pipeline, instead of making people figure out everything on the job, like other professions.
- clbrmbr 4y ago
  Hard to figure out how to innovate on education (slow to change institutions) in the face of such rapid change. I actually feel my university education prepared me well for what’s going on. I studied a mix of theoretical comp science, physics, philosophy, and mathematics (esp calculus and number theory). Very little of what I learned is obsoleted, and especially probability theory and NLP are turning out to be very valuable to know when working with even CoPilot. But man, I feel bad for those studying “programming” as a trade rather than computer science as a scientific / engineering discipline.
  - cudgy 4y ago
    Your background has no domain knowledge though. It is structured and foundational stem skills (except philosophy) which the ai’s can more easily handle. Domain knowledge about specific industries and what is required by the software seems the more valuable skillset going forward. How does physics and computer science help with that? Communication skills and ability to learn new, more unstructured domains is likely to be more critical like those learned by strong liberal arts disciplines, for example.
mikewarot 4y ago
There are new accountants being minted all the time, spreadsheets didn't stop that. Artists didn't stop because the camera made it possible to do what otherwise took hours with a canvas and oils. The nature of programming may change, but it's still about using computers to solve problems. --- Putting on the old guy hat --- You kids didn't learn programming from magazine articles typing in your favorite little game into a computer that went away when you powered it off. You didn't have to toggle in a boot loader before you could use the computer. You didn't dream of one day having a modem and being able to call BBSs, then dream of your own phone line that you didn't have to share. Yet, ya'll turned out ok, despite all those changes. It'll be ok, kid... it'll be OK. Computer programs will always be complex beasties with bugs hiding in the corners. There will always be a class of people willing to find those bugs and make things easier to use. You are that type of person, right? Good!
- LapsangGuzzler 4y ago
  > Yet, ya'll turned out ok, despite all those changes. I personally do very well for myself, being in the top 1% of earners in my generation. It deeply concerns me that I can barely afford to buy a house despite this fact. Most of my peers can't even dream of doing something like buying a house right now. And why is this happening? Because computers are being used to extract vast amounts of value from the system to be captured by a tiny fraction of people who are increasingly owning everything. AI will only accelerate this trend. And perhaps I'm one of the lucky ones to have carved out a good career for myself, but everywhere I look, I see folks struggling more and more. And stuff like AI is about to make life a whole lot harder for them. Yuval Harari talked about the rise of the "useless class" [0], and the challenges with mass unemployment in the future when AI has replaced many jobs. You can repeat the "it'll be OK" mantra as much as you want, that doesn't make it true. 0: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94o-9zR2bew https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94o-9zR2bew
- cudgy 4y ago
  > You kids didn't learn programming from magazine articles typing in your favorite little game into a computer that went away when you powered it off. You didn't have to toggle in a boot loader before you could use the computer. You didn't dream of one day having a modem and being able to call BBSs, then dream of your own phone line that you didn't have to share. Yet, ya'll turned out ok, despite all those changes. This was at the beginning of the software revolution. Growth of the industry was huge and fast. Entrants into the field were virtually guaranteed a decent career with little competition and almost no automation. Those days are over. We are dealing with a relatively mature industry now with a new ai tool that is limited by hardware processing power instead of more biological beings. Low level / beginning programming skills will no longer be needed and experienced programmers will evolve into roles that will drive the ai tools at a high level to create solutions, occasionally debug tricky issues that the ai created, and implement code that the ai is unable to generate properly. The last task is the one that will determine the remaining role of the human developer.
  - creshal 4y ago
    We've already seen much of this development pre-AI with the rise of no code / low code platforms. Even if you manage to put this particular genie back into the bottle, there's no escaping the increasing automation of programming. And so far it only increased the demand for software, because for anyone outside software development, cheaper software just means you can leverage your budget to get better faster.
LapsangGuzzler 4y ago
They can't. Period. It's the next level of prioritizing the short term at the expense of the long term.

by soco 4y ago

creshal 4y ago

Maybe we'll finally invest into a real education and training pipeline, instead of making people figure out everything on the job, like other professions.

clbrmbr 4y ago
Hard to figure out how to innovate on education (slow to change institutions) in the face of such rapid change. I actually feel my university education prepared me well for what’s going on. I studied a mix of theoretical comp science, physics, philosophy, and mathematics (esp calculus and number theory). Very little of what I learned is obsoleted, and especially probability theory and NLP are turning out to be very valuable to know when working with even CoPilot. But man, I feel bad for those studying “programming” as a trade rather than computer science as a scientific / engineering discipline.
- cudgy 4y ago
  Your background has no domain knowledge though. It is structured and foundational stem skills (except philosophy) which the ai’s can more easily handle. Domain knowledge about specific industries and what is required by the software seems the more valuable skillset going forward. How does physics and computer science help with that? Communication skills and ability to learn new, more unstructured domains is likely to be more critical like those learned by strong liberal arts disciplines, for example.

mikewarot 4y ago

There are new accountants being minted all the time, spreadsheets didn't stop that. Artists didn't stop because the camera made it possible to do what otherwise took hours with a canvas and oils. The nature of programming may change, but it's still about using computers to solve problems. --- Putting on the old guy hat --- You kids didn't learn programming from magazine articles typing in your favorite little game into a computer that went away when you powered it off. You didn't have to toggle in a boot loader before you could use the computer. You didn't dream of one day having a modem and being able to call BBSs, then dream of your own phone line that you didn't have to share. Yet, ya'll turned out ok, despite all those changes. It'll be ok, kid... it'll be OK. Computer programs will always be complex beasties with bugs hiding in the corners. There will always be a class of people willing to find those bugs and make things easier to use. You are that type of person, right? Good!

LapsangGuzzler 4y ago
> Yet, ya'll turned out ok, despite all those changes. I personally do very well for myself, being in the top 1% of earners in my generation. It deeply concerns me that I can barely afford to buy a house despite this fact. Most of my peers can't even dream of doing something like buying a house right now. And why is this happening? Because computers are being used to extract vast amounts of value from the system to be captured by a tiny fraction of people who are increasingly owning everything. AI will only accelerate this trend. And perhaps I'm one of the lucky ones to have carved out a good career for myself, but everywhere I look, I see folks struggling more and more. And stuff like AI is about to make life a whole lot harder for them. Yuval Harari talked about the rise of the "useless class" [0], and the challenges with mass unemployment in the future when AI has replaced many jobs. You can repeat the "it'll be OK" mantra as much as you want, that doesn't make it true. 0: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94o-9zR2bew https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94o-9zR2bew
cudgy 4y ago
> You kids didn't learn programming from magazine articles typing in your favorite little game into a computer that went away when you powered it off. You didn't have to toggle in a boot loader before you could use the computer. You didn't dream of one day having a modem and being able to call BBSs, then dream of your own phone line that you didn't have to share. Yet, ya'll turned out ok, despite all those changes. This was at the beginning of the software revolution. Growth of the industry was huge and fast. Entrants into the field were virtually guaranteed a decent career with little competition and almost no automation. Those days are over. We are dealing with a relatively mature industry now with a new ai tool that is limited by hardware processing power instead of more biological beings. Low level / beginning programming skills will no longer be needed and experienced programmers will evolve into roles that will drive the ai tools at a high level to create solutions, occasionally debug tricky issues that the ai created, and implement code that the ai is unable to generate properly. The last task is the one that will determine the remaining role of the human developer.
- creshal 4y ago
  We've already seen much of this development pre-AI with the rise of no code / low code platforms. Even if you manage to put this particular genie back into the bottle, there's no escaping the increasing automation of programming. And so far it only increased the demand for software, because for anyone outside software development, cheaper software just means you can leverage your budget to get better faster.

LapsangGuzzler 4y ago

They can't. Period. It's the next level of prioritizing the short term at the expense of the long term.