4 ms·
Eh, unpopular opinion: maybe the tobacco industry was correct? Back in those days it wasn't as well known how many dubious papers come out of the scientific wor
by revelio 4y ago
Eh, unpopular opinion: maybe the tobacco industry was correct? Back in those days it wasn't as well known how many dubious papers come out of the scientific world, how many underpowered studies, how many fail to replicate, how many photoshopped images there are in supposedly robust bio papers. Just recently it was discovered that a top Alzheimer's lab was built on fraudulent research and had been for >15 years.
And the smoking/lung cancer link is pure epidemiology. You can't see it with your own eyes because so many smokers live to old age without getting cancer. So you're forced to rely on studies that build statistical links. COVID showed us all how low the standards are in that field. Academic researchers didn't hesitate before making wild claims that weren't supported by the data, it happened over and over again and they never repented or admitted to it. Not only with COVID either. They were telling people in 1987 that AIDS would kill 20% of all heterosexuals within 3 years, they spent years trying to gin up panic about Swine Flu, they pivoted from COVID to Monkey Pox almost immediately with the WHO declaring it a health emergency, until it became clear it only really affected gay men whereupon they suddenly lost interest in telling the infected what to do.
The position of the tobacco companies boiled down to: the quality of the science is poor, there are scientists who disagree with it so there isn't actually any consensus, it's all statistical, we don't really know. That's not a priori obviously a bad argument. There are tons of things that were once "known" that later became "un-known" when people took a closer look at the research, and only at the tip of the iceberg. There are still many fields that are considered beyond criticism which are riddled with fake research findings.
Maybe the smoking/cancer link is somehow different and actually super robust and not at all filled with motivated reasoning like so much else. Let's hope so. But from flicking through Kessler's opinion it seems like she was terribly impressed by academia, with statements trashing the defendants witnesses as "inexperienced" because they'd only worked for corporations, or hadn't published as many peer reviewed papers. I've read peer reviewed and published papers from universities. Many were outright deceptive crap. Peer review doesn't impress me anymore. Much of the best research comes from corporations so this feels like the judge started out biased.
- mhh__ 4y agoAcquiring a scientist who agrees with you isn't hard now there are so many of them. Consensus is also probably something of a postfacto lie, perhaps we should be merely aiming for a certain amount of evidence to identify a potential risk and judge decisions based on the potential cost of inaction. Also researchers are barely even allowed (certainly not encouraged, and where would you even find a media person to talk to) to talk to the media at all unless they're very senior or tweeting.
- revelio 4y agoAgree that true consensus is rare, albeit only a problem in some fields. Physics and chemistry have no problems obtaining consensus on many facts, for example. I don't recognize that last part at all. Feels sometimes like modern news articles aren't complete without some academic "expert" popping up and telling people what to think. Most universities outright encourage researchers to talk to the media these days, and it's not like they needed encouragement to start with.
- trehalose 4y agoHypothetically, perhaps in some alternate universe where tobacco is harmful and the corporations who sell it are deceitful, what evidence could exist that would prove the tobacco corporations wrong?
- revelio 4y agoThe sort of evidence that they claim exists. Data, statistical evidence, etc. The question here is not whether epidemiology can in theory establish causal links. It's whether it actually does so reliably. It has a poor track record so it's reasonable to wonder.