The momentum of investment even in known techniques makes it pretty clear that there will be even more useful things than GPT-4 available very shortly. Never mi

The momentum of investment even in known techniques makes it pretty clear that there will be even more useful things than GPT-4 available very shortly. Never mind in 10 years, with global training & inference capacity increased by multiples. It's obvious at this point that we are figuring out how to create machines that think. While I agree that the future is unclear, in the sense that it's hard to make exact predictions, the trend is very clear. Significant efficiency improvements in many types of intellectual labor is almost certain. I don't think it's priced in yet; the somewhat independent-minded among tech people are currently the only ones who have front-row seats to what's going on. But in a few years it will be obvious. Honestly, I think the persistent exponential improvement in AI makes it obvious we're on track for superintelligent machines in a few decades as well (if that!), but the preceding paragraphs should at least be entering the realm of Overton.