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> Is this case really worth exploring? Yes! You’ve mentioned people downplaying, but this is someone who is 95% confident there won’t be an AI winter in the ne

> Is this case really worth exploring? Yes! You’ve mentioned people downplaying, but this is someone who is 95% confident there won’t be an AI winter in the next seven years. That’s really quite confident. And the definition he gave makes it compatible with AI being the biggest thing since sliced bread. But if it gets funded at 3x bread and scales down to 1x bread, that will count. What cost was this exploration? A blog post? An HN discussion. I think it’s so valuable for people to consider the scenarios they think are unlikely. I find this analysis much more interesting than all the dismissive “my job is safe, AI can’t [friction-point-of-existing-system]” posts. It’s certainly worth the investment of a few hours of work.

nuancebydefault 4y ago
You are right, even if it only leads to this HN discussion, which provides us with a more nuanced view -- "Haven't looked at it that way" Thanks!
- travisjungroth 4y ago
  Thanks. And I do share your surprise at the number of people downplaying it. It seems like some people are forecasting that things that happened last month won’t happen. That’s not a great way to get predictions right.
  - nuancebydefault 4y ago
    In one of the above comments I read that downplaying AI could be a coping strategy, for a typical - I've got things covered mentality - type of HN'er. If that's the case, I think those, like most people, are taking the advancements seriously. I would say to those people: don't worry too much. The impact will be big, but it doesn't have to mean people will not have a job anymore, the tools they use will be at another level.
    - travisjungroth 4y ago
      I'm actually fine with this argument. "I'll be fine, I can move up another abstraction level." is pretty solid. You've made me realize the difference between the arguments I find weak vs strong. The weak argument is I can do something that ChatGPT can't. "I have people skills!". The strong argument is that as ChatGPT grows, I will grow with it. The AI floodwaters are rising. People are climbing up the stairs when they should be building boats. If you seek shelter and are wrong about how far this goes, your attic will become a coffin.

nuancebydefault 4y ago

You are right, even if it only leads to this HN discussion, which provides us with a more nuanced view -- "Haven't looked at it that way" Thanks!

travisjungroth 4y ago
Thanks. And I do share your surprise at the number of people downplaying it. It seems like some people are forecasting that things that happened last month won’t happen. That’s not a great way to get predictions right.
- nuancebydefault 4y ago
  In one of the above comments I read that downplaying AI could be a coping strategy, for a typical - I've got things covered mentality - type of HN'er. If that's the case, I think those, like most people, are taking the advancements seriously. I would say to those people: don't worry too much. The impact will be big, but it doesn't have to mean people will not have a job anymore, the tools they use will be at another level.
  - travisjungroth 4y ago
    I'm actually fine with this argument. "I'll be fine, I can move up another abstraction level." is pretty solid. You've made me realize the difference between the arguments I find weak vs strong. The weak argument is I can do something that ChatGPT can't. "I have people skills!". The strong argument is that as ChatGPT grows, I will grow with it. The AI floodwaters are rising. People are climbing up the stairs when they should be building boats. If you seek shelter and are wrong about how far this goes, your attic will become a coffin.