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These reports are the modern versions of the men walking around the city with sandwich boards proclaiming the end of the world [1]. When you asked them what it
by the_third_wave 4y ago
These reports are the modern versions of the men walking around the city with sandwich boards proclaiming the end of the world [1]. When you asked them what it was which made them believe so you'd get some rambling story of how the lord had given them signs in their breakfast porridge, ask these climate prophets what makes them believe the point of no return has come and they point at their models which have shown them the end is coming. The difference between these two is that the former at least got a good breakfast out of their medium.
Is the climate not changing then? Of course it is, always has and always will. Do humans not influence the climate then? Of course they do, especially since the industrial revolution. Does this portend a catastrophe? Well... there opinions vary. I'm convinced the changing climate will poise some problems which will be dealt with - just like humans have always dealt with the changing climate. The difference here is that there are more humans - which could make things more difficult - who have more advanced technology - which will make things easier. Assuming cooler minds prevail and the sabre rattling around the world does not lead to a bigger conflict I'm convinced humanity as a whole will make it through whatever changes the climate makes to come out richer and more advanced still.
Would we be better off if we were not as reliant on fossil energy sources? Yes, we certainly would given the pollution - and I'm talking about true pollution here, not CO₂ - involved in the winning and use of these sources. Build more nukes, get serious with fusion, develop a sane form of hydrogen storage, go for it. Not because of the climate boogeyman but because of the above reason as well as the fact that these energy sources are concentrated in some of the more troublesome regions in the world where they have already led to numerous conflicts.
Do I trust climate models? No, I do not and with reason. I did study this stuff a few decades ago when the models were 'less advanced' than they are now. I know
of too many fudge factors in these models, too many adjustments which are made to make them follow the observations where the reason for and effect of those adjustments are not understood. From what I have been able to keep up with things are not much different now - apart from far faster computers and more complex models with more parameters and their accompanying fudge factors.
[1] https://therionorteline.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/lead64.jpg https://therionorteline.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/lead64.j...