4 ms·
The mass of the Greenland ice sheet is about 2.5 E15 tonnes. The average melt rate between 2003 and 2016 was about 2.5 E11 tonnes/year. At this rate it would ta
by gshubert17 4y ago
The mass of the Greenland ice sheet is about 2.5 E15 tonnes. The average melt rate between 2003 and 2016 was about 2.5 E11 tonnes/year. At this rate it would take 10,000 years to melt completely.
But the melt rate is increasing with increasing average temperatures. Wikipedia quotes a melt of 5 E 11 tonnes in 2019. Perhaps the doubling time is about 10 years? At that rate it'd take about 5,000 years to melt away.
Five thousand years is a long time only if the melt rate remains the same. If the melt rate continues to double every decade, then 12 doublings increases the melt rate to 4000 * 5 E 11 = 2 E 15 tonnes/year. Then the Greenland ice cap could be gone in about 120 years.
- Someone 4y ago> But the melt rate is increasing with increasing average temperatures. Wikipedia quotes a melt of 5 E 11 tonnes in 2019. Perhaps the doubling time is about 10 years? At that rate it'd take about 5,000 years to melt away. At that doubled rate it would take 5,000 years, but if that rate doubles every 10 years, at the rate 10 years from now, it would take 2,500, at the rate 20 years from now 1,250, at the rate 100 years from now about 5.
- adrianN 4y agoI don't think a simple exponential function is an adequate way of modelling this.