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Regarding your points on automation - it's an inherently contradictory position. If automation didn't save time/money/labor costs, we wouldn't invest in it. Car

by juve1996 4y ago

Regarding your points on automation - it's an inherently contradictory position. If automation didn't save time/money/labor costs, we wouldn't invest in it. Carpentry being in demand has to do with external factors, not technological factors. There was no demand for carpentry in 2009, for example. New industries will have to spawn from generative AI for there to be a net positive. Most IT and tech jobs are lower level coding positions. This will all but eliminate these roles. SWEs especially top ones will likely be safe. But that doesn't solve the societal problem. Regarding layoffs - we've barely touched the surface. We haven't even entered recession yet, and a financial crisis looms. Most are on hiring freeze now and just in the last 2 weeks both meta and amazon slashed additional jobs. More will be coming. The industry won't completely collapse because it's a mature industry now - FAANGs are now like Coke. Blue chip. This says nothing about its workforce though - there's nothing these companies would love more than to be able to reduce the cost of their software devs.

twblalock 4y ago
There isn't really such a thing as "external factors" when the entire economy is an interdependent ecosystem. Construction getting cheaper and more productive actually created more demand for it, made it economical to build large suburban subdivisions, etc. > Most IT and tech jobs are lower level coding positions. I don't really buy that. It's true that most positions are IC positions, i.e. not managers, but quite a lot of them require domain knowledge and human intervention in edge cases which can't be handled by automation. If automation could solve all the problems, why are so many people oncall?
- juve1996 4y ago
  Construction hasn't gotten cheaper in the US, though. In fact, it's more expensive than ever. Yet, individual labor wages have not increased, So...what's going on? Other factors. You can't ignore them just because it suits your argument. The fact is, it's demand driven, and why in 2009 there was no demand (despite how much automation was available.) And workers aren't seeing the gains of automation (e.g. many are being replaced by them.) > I don't really buy that. It's true that most positions are IC positions, i.e. not managers, but quite a lot of them require domain knowledge and human intervention in edge cases which can't be handled by automation. If automation could solve all the problems, why are so many people oncall? I don't mean IC vs manager. In any case, at my company our support staff has been reduced by 75%. In my previous life as a mechanical engineer, I've seen control systems replace 90% of powerplant staff. Also, generative AI just became a thing - because SWEs can be more efficient, you simply need less, UNLESS there is growth or a new market emerges (certainly possible), in any case millions will be left behind, just as what happened in the rust belt when manufacturing collapsed. In any case, I hope you're right and I'm wrong :)

twblalock 4y ago

There isn't really such a thing as "external factors" when the entire economy is an interdependent ecosystem. Construction getting cheaper and more productive actually created more demand for it, made it economical to build large suburban subdivisions, etc. > Most IT and tech jobs are lower level coding positions. I don't really buy that. It's true that most positions are IC positions, i.e. not managers, but quite a lot of them require domain knowledge and human intervention in edge cases which can't be handled by automation. If automation could solve all the problems, why are so many people oncall?

juve1996 4y ago
Construction hasn't gotten cheaper in the US, though. In fact, it's more expensive than ever. Yet, individual labor wages have not increased, So...what's going on? Other factors. You can't ignore them just because it suits your argument. The fact is, it's demand driven, and why in 2009 there was no demand (despite how much automation was available.) And workers aren't seeing the gains of automation (e.g. many are being replaced by them.) > I don't really buy that. It's true that most positions are IC positions, i.e. not managers, but quite a lot of them require domain knowledge and human intervention in edge cases which can't be handled by automation. If automation could solve all the problems, why are so many people oncall? I don't mean IC vs manager. In any case, at my company our support staff has been reduced by 75%. In my previous life as a mechanical engineer, I've seen control systems replace 90% of powerplant staff. Also, generative AI just became a thing - because SWEs can be more efficient, you simply need less, UNLESS there is growth or a new market emerges (certainly possible), in any case millions will be left behind, just as what happened in the rust belt when manufacturing collapsed. In any case, I hope you're right and I'm wrong :)