6 ms·

I still think it won't succeed. Electric cars have been build since 1904. But range have always been a problem. Ofcourse charging your car becomes quicker. But

by tintin 15y ago

I still think it won't succeed. Electric cars have been build since 1904. But range have always been a problem. Ofcourse charging your car becomes quicker. But I still think a lot of people won't buy an electric car because they are afraid of not getting home.

pedrolll 15y ago
Yes it's a problem when there are not enough charging stations around. In some countries the network is quite well spread already but I guess not in the U.S. so far. Once that gets taken care of, I don't see any reasons for people not buying electric cars.
- panacea 15y ago
  It's still a 'chicken or an egg' problem, and charging times are not the same as filling up from a pump.
  - yeswecan 15y ago
    One can imagine the hypothetical scenario where a large filling station network would offer a battery subscription service of sorts, whereby you can stop at a station, swap in a charged battery, and drive off.
    - ConstantineXVI 15y ago
      a) Car batteries are massive. b) The batteries are shaped to the car[1]; standardizing batteries would require sacrificing car design (aka: goodbye back seat). [1] From http://www.teslamotors.com/models/features#/battery http://www.teslamotors.com/models/features#/battery "...integrating with the vehicle in the same way, providing structural, aerodynamic, and handling advantages."
      - gnaffle 15y ago
        It might be possible to have some of the battery packs replaceable and some fixed, so that you can get to 40% charge or so instantly if you need it. I'm a bit more pessimistic on getting the car makers to standardize on a battery size, especially as long as battery technology is a competitive advantage.
    - amac 15y ago
      I don't see why this system can't replace re-fueling at a station. The retail store, restaurant, other services i.e the operator's profit, is all still there. You just change the service/self-service oil option with the self-service electric vehicle battery switching option. tintin, what is the difference in the logic behind 'afraid of not getting home' with regards to combustion and electric motors? Both run out of juice at some stage, you just make sure it doesn't run out right.
      - ams6110 15y ago
        Combustion powered cars can be refueled anywhere in about 5 minutes. Electric cars take hours and that's only for a partial charge. Also I doubt our electrical infrastructure will support large-scale EV recharging. We have brown-outs and black-outs now in many urban areas during peak demand times. So we'd at least need "intelligent grid" capability to throttle or disable vehicle charging during peak demand hours. Finally the whole issue of road tax is never discussed. This is a significant portion of the retail cost of gasoline. If/when large numbers of people switch to EV cars, we'll need a way to meter and tax the electricity for road maintenance, or find another way to fund that.
        gnaffle 15y ago
        With quick chargers you can charge an electric car in about 30 minutes. Charging that takes hours is not a problem if you can charge the car at work or at home. It's pretty clear that a large scale switch to electric would require us to upgrade the grid, make available metering solutions and add tax the electricity. It's not going to be easy, but it's not going to be impossible either. And the transition is likely to happen very gradually. 150 years ago people likely told the first auto makers the same thing: How are people going to buy your product when there it's so difficult to get fuel? The problem was solved piece by piece as the market demanded cars.
        darrylb42 15y ago
        Not that I have really looked hard, but I don't recall seeing electrical outlets in any parking stall I have ever used. I know there are none in the parking lot for my apartment.
    - szx 15y ago
      This is exactly what better place (Shai Agassi et al.) is doing: http://www.betterplace.com/the-solution-switch-stations http://www.betterplace.com/the-solution-switch-stations
    - kingnothing 15y ago
      Tesla cars are built with exactly that in mind. The battery packs can be swapped out in minutes.
      - aidenn0 15y ago
        source? [edit] Wikipedia claims this, but their reference no longer exists on Tesla Motor's website. Searching everywhere in the OP yields nothing about this.
- arethuza 15y ago
  "I don't see any reasons for people not buying electric cars." Almost all of my car journeys are from Edinburgh to various random locations in the Scottish Highlands to go skiing/cycling/walking - usually from 200 to 400 miles for the round trip - often parking in fairly remote spots. I just don't see an electric car being a sensible choice for our family any time soon.
  - showerst 15y ago
    You're not the market for this car. Right now that market is upper-class commuters, who mostly go < 50 miles round trip and would likely use it as a second (or third) car. I could see a decent market for these things from people who live in the US in VA/MD and commute into and out of DC, for instance. It's not a long distance, but it's a very slow trip because of traffic, and there's a culture of status-symbol cars.
slykat 15y ago
What about the market for car sharing? At Google we have a fleet of electric (and normal cars that are offered to employees for personal & business use and it's never been a problem since they are used for short trips. If they can produce a cheap model, I can see a market for players like Zipcar for dense urban centers where a majority of trips are quite short.
franklindholm 15y ago
I agree, also the price is to high. $49.9k for a range of 160 miles? 5h+ for full charge? With the super charger it still takes 30 min for 160 miles charge, but then you have to buy the $59.9k option. Of course the cars could hardly be any cheaper since they are built with new technology etc., but this still is just a prototype of sorts, electric cars won't become really commercial until either the recharge and price problems are solved or when the price of gas is so high that no one can afford it.
- gnaffle 15y ago
  Tesla is hardly a mass market car. I think the price is too high for a BMW 5-series as well, but if they manage to sell the cars at that price, that's my problem and not theirs. I think Tesla made a good choice to expand downwards in the market, that's the only sensible solution for a small company. If you want a mass market car, you can get a Nissan Leaf for half the price. I agree that it's not for everyone, especially since the battery warranty is not as good as it should be.
deleted 15y ago
[deleted]
ithought 15y ago
Already is and will. Check out Shai Agassi. (BetterPlace) EDIT- Israel, Denmark, Australia and some US testing. Why is this downvoted? My point was a solution exists and is being implemented on a large scale.
gnaffle 15y ago
"I still think computers will not succeed. They have been built since the 50s, and the price tag, the space they take, the heat and energy consumption have always been a problem." I think you fail to realize where electric cars are on its technological trajectory. They're still in its infancy, and it's not like there's no more innovation to be had in battery technology etc.
- tintin 15y ago
  I do realize this. But I was talking about the Tesla in its current form. Ofcourse it might get a success some day. Maybe we won't have to charge them because they all will have a small nuclear reactor. My point is: a lot of people are still thinking 300 miles on one battery charge is not enough. And maybe this is true when you go on holiday or something. But most of the time people are fine driving an electric car from home to work and back.
  - deleted 15y ago
    [deleted]
  - gnaffle 15y ago
    The current Tesla will succeed if there are enough people that want to, and have enough money to buy a high performance electric car. It's not so relevant what most people think about electric cars if you don't target the mass market. Most people that can afford a Tesla will probably afford another car to go on holidays (or they will be enthusiastic enough about their Tesla to plan their holidays around charging stations..)
  - startupfounder 15y ago
    Tesla at this moment in time is not a car company that is marketing its product to the average consumer. They realize the technology is currently not their, but their go to market strategy is to market their luxury product to people who can afford a $50k car. At this point it is not about the worry of charging or where. My assumption is that the vast majority of people who own Tesla cars have a charging station in their home and understand the limits of the product. They purchase the car for status, just like every other luxury product. 300 miles become irrelevant when you can recharge your car in 5-10 minutes, and that is where the technology is going.
analyst74 15y ago
My phone cannot go for a whole day of heavy use without recharging, this is literally unthinkable 5 years ago. How can a phone be usable if you have to worry about charging it all the time? Now, everyone is perfectly happy with carrying their chargers around. Maybe in a few years, people would get used to the idea of planning for charging their cars.
- andylei 15y ago
  > everyone is perfectly happy with carrying their chargers around. Maybe in a few years, people would get used to the idea of planning for charging their cars. that's because new mobile phones with crappy battery lives offer a lot more functionality than old mobile phones with much greater battery life. if this was the case with the electric car, then maybe yes, but i don't really see any significant benefits.
lutorm 15y ago
I bet the people who can throw $60-80k at a car already have other cars they can use for long-distance drives.

by tintin 15y ago

pedrolll 15y ago

Yes it's a problem when there are not enough charging stations around. In some countries the network is quite well spread already but I guess not in the U.S. so far. Once that gets taken care of, I don't see any reasons for people not buying electric cars.

panacea 15y ago
It's still a 'chicken or an egg' problem, and charging times are not the same as filling up from a pump.
- yeswecan 15y ago
  One can imagine the hypothetical scenario where a large filling station network would offer a battery subscription service of sorts, whereby you can stop at a station, swap in a charged battery, and drive off.
  - ConstantineXVI 15y ago
    a) Car batteries are massive. b) The batteries are shaped to the car[1]; standardizing batteries would require sacrificing car design (aka: goodbye back seat). [1] From http://www.teslamotors.com/models/features#/battery http://www.teslamotors.com/models/features#/battery "...integrating with the vehicle in the same way, providing structural, aerodynamic, and handling advantages."
    - gnaffle 15y ago
      It might be possible to have some of the battery packs replaceable and some fixed, so that you can get to 40% charge or so instantly if you need it. I'm a bit more pessimistic on getting the car makers to standardize on a battery size, especially as long as battery technology is a competitive advantage.
  - amac 15y ago
    I don't see why this system can't replace re-fueling at a station. The retail store, restaurant, other services i.e the operator's profit, is all still there. You just change the service/self-service oil option with the self-service electric vehicle battery switching option. tintin, what is the difference in the logic behind 'afraid of not getting home' with regards to combustion and electric motors? Both run out of juice at some stage, you just make sure it doesn't run out right.
    - ams6110 15y ago
      Combustion powered cars can be refueled anywhere in about 5 minutes. Electric cars take hours and that's only for a partial charge. Also I doubt our electrical infrastructure will support large-scale EV recharging. We have brown-outs and black-outs now in many urban areas during peak demand times. So we'd at least need "intelligent grid" capability to throttle or disable vehicle charging during peak demand hours. Finally the whole issue of road tax is never discussed. This is a significant portion of the retail cost of gasoline. If/when large numbers of people switch to EV cars, we'll need a way to meter and tax the electricity for road maintenance, or find another way to fund that.
      - gnaffle 15y ago
        With quick chargers you can charge an electric car in about 30 minutes. Charging that takes hours is not a problem if you can charge the car at work or at home. It's pretty clear that a large scale switch to electric would require us to upgrade the grid, make available metering solutions and add tax the electricity. It's not going to be easy, but it's not going to be impossible either. And the transition is likely to happen very gradually. 150 years ago people likely told the first auto makers the same thing: How are people going to buy your product when there it's so difficult to get fuel? The problem was solved piece by piece as the market demanded cars.
        darrylb42 15y ago
        Not that I have really looked hard, but I don't recall seeing electrical outlets in any parking stall I have ever used. I know there are none in the parking lot for my apartment.
  - szx 15y ago
    This is exactly what better place (Shai Agassi et al.) is doing: http://www.betterplace.com/the-solution-switch-stations http://www.betterplace.com/the-solution-switch-stations
  - kingnothing 15y ago
    Tesla cars are built with exactly that in mind. The battery packs can be swapped out in minutes.
    - aidenn0 15y ago
      source? [edit] Wikipedia claims this, but their reference no longer exists on Tesla Motor's website. Searching everywhere in the OP yields nothing about this.
arethuza 15y ago
"I don't see any reasons for people not buying electric cars." Almost all of my car journeys are from Edinburgh to various random locations in the Scottish Highlands to go skiing/cycling/walking - usually from 200 to 400 miles for the round trip - often parking in fairly remote spots. I just don't see an electric car being a sensible choice for our family any time soon.
- showerst 15y ago
  You're not the market for this car. Right now that market is upper-class commuters, who mostly go < 50 miles round trip and would likely use it as a second (or third) car. I could see a decent market for these things from people who live in the US in VA/MD and commute into and out of DC, for instance. It's not a long distance, but it's a very slow trip because of traffic, and there's a culture of status-symbol cars.

slykat 15y ago

What about the market for car sharing? At Google we have a fleet of electric (and normal cars that are offered to employees for personal & business use and it's never been a problem since they are used for short trips. If they can produce a cheap model, I can see a market for players like Zipcar for dense urban centers where a majority of trips are quite short.

franklindholm 15y ago

I agree, also the price is to high. $49.9k for a range of 160 miles? 5h+ for full charge? With the super charger it still takes 30 min for 160 miles charge, but then you have to buy the $59.9k option. Of course the cars could hardly be any cheaper since they are built with new technology etc., but this still is just a prototype of sorts, electric cars won't become really commercial until either the recharge and price problems are solved or when the price of gas is so high that no one can afford it.

gnaffle 15y ago
Tesla is hardly a mass market car. I think the price is too high for a BMW 5-series as well, but if they manage to sell the cars at that price, that's my problem and not theirs. I think Tesla made a good choice to expand downwards in the market, that's the only sensible solution for a small company. If you want a mass market car, you can get a Nissan Leaf for half the price. I agree that it's not for everyone, especially since the battery warranty is not as good as it should be.

deleted 15y ago

[deleted]

ithought 15y ago

Already is and will. Check out Shai Agassi. (BetterPlace) EDIT- Israel, Denmark, Australia and some US testing. Why is this downvoted? My point was a solution exists and is being implemented on a large scale.

gnaffle 15y ago

"I still think computers will not succeed. They have been built since the 50s, and the price tag, the space they take, the heat and energy consumption have always been a problem." I think you fail to realize where electric cars are on its technological trajectory. They're still in its infancy, and it's not like there's no more innovation to be had in battery technology etc.

tintin 15y ago
I do realize this. But I was talking about the Tesla in its current form. Ofcourse it might get a success some day. Maybe we won't have to charge them because they all will have a small nuclear reactor. My point is: a lot of people are still thinking 300 miles on one battery charge is not enough. And maybe this is true when you go on holiday or something. But most of the time people are fine driving an electric car from home to work and back.
- deleted 15y ago
  [deleted]
- gnaffle 15y ago
  The current Tesla will succeed if there are enough people that want to, and have enough money to buy a high performance electric car. It's not so relevant what most people think about electric cars if you don't target the mass market. Most people that can afford a Tesla will probably afford another car to go on holidays (or they will be enthusiastic enough about their Tesla to plan their holidays around charging stations..)
- startupfounder 15y ago
  Tesla at this moment in time is not a car company that is marketing its product to the average consumer. They realize the technology is currently not their, but their go to market strategy is to market their luxury product to people who can afford a $50k car. At this point it is not about the worry of charging or where. My assumption is that the vast majority of people who own Tesla cars have a charging station in their home and understand the limits of the product. They purchase the car for status, just like every other luxury product. 300 miles become irrelevant when you can recharge your car in 5-10 minutes, and that is where the technology is going.

analyst74 15y ago

My phone cannot go for a whole day of heavy use without recharging, this is literally unthinkable 5 years ago. How can a phone be usable if you have to worry about charging it all the time? Now, everyone is perfectly happy with carrying their chargers around. Maybe in a few years, people would get used to the idea of planning for charging their cars.

andylei 15y ago
> everyone is perfectly happy with carrying their chargers around. Maybe in a few years, people would get used to the idea of planning for charging their cars. that's because new mobile phones with crappy battery lives offer a lot more functionality than old mobile phones with much greater battery life. if this was the case with the electric car, then maybe yes, but i don't really see any significant benefits.

lutorm 15y ago

I bet the people who can throw $60-80k at a car already have other cars they can use for long-distance drives.